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Yearly Archives: 2015

I’M TAKING END OF YEAR REQUESTS

And to answer your question, pal, no I did not attend the catamite infested StockTwits nerdfest in NYC, despite one of their janitors posting a picture of someone who was supposed to be me on Twitter. I am not that man and if I ever see you in private quarters, I am going to split your person, 2 for 1.

Heading into the final trading days of 2015, with Le Fly rebounding from the heinous losses he endured in 2014, he’s opening up to the public, the reader class, permitting them to ask questions, make requests, etc.

I have an exceedingly busy schedule in the days, weeks and months to come. So take this as your opportune moment to enter into the mind of a person much greater than you.

Plans for 2016?

Yes, I have many.

Do I have picks for 2016?

Several.

Is Le Fly going to win the grande prize and take home the trophy?

Always.

NOTE: Jeff Macke is going to be a special guest in the hallowed halls of Exodus for the month of January, providing exclusive content, and the like.

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Martin Shkreli Threatens the Wu-Tang Clan, Like in the Streets

This is the craziest interview I’ve ever read for a publicly traded CEO to give.

First, Shkreli is planning to bail out a rapper who is being accused of all sorts of fucked up stuff, from shootings to drugs to murder. The gang he’s in is widely known in Brooklyn to be chockful of knucklehead trouble makers. Why would Martin want to bail him out is beyond me.

Second, he’s responding to RZA from Wu-Tang in a way that unfuckingbelievable to me, with regards to the $2 million album he just bought from the Wu.

Check out some of his choice words. You’re not gonna believe this shit.

Regarding bailing out Bobby Shmurda:

Every concert I go to, people yell “Free Shmurda.” He reminds me of me, quite frankly. The guy’s totally irreverent. He doesn’t give a damn what people think. Totally irreverent. Totally I don’t give a fuck. I love him. I just love that style. He’s from not far from where I’m from in Brooklyn. I’d love to help him out. I wish someone would have helped me out when I needed help. He doesn’t have much money, I know that. He’s definitely hurting for money. He needs a bailout, basically. I’d like to help him out. No big promises, but I’ll see what I can do. Like I said, if I can post the $2 million, I’d do it tomorrow. I’m working on it and hopefully, we’ll see him free soon.

Back to Wu-Tang, talking shit and what not

I bought the album. [There’s a ] big fucking check in RZA and Cilvaringz’ pocket now, but if they’re starting to turn up on me… The Albanian community is a very weird community. We’re some of the most tight-knit kind-of kill for each other, die for each other motherfuckers there are. People say it’s one of the craziest ethnicities there is in terms of their loyalty and bloodlines and shit like that. This thing [Wu-Tang thing] is starting to get pretty tense. You probably see that increasingly. I’m getting pretty frustrated by it. I bought the most expensive album in the history of mankind and fucking RZA is talking shit behind my back and online in plain sight. I’m just getting pissed off. That’s not the way I do business. If I hand you $2 million, fucking show me some respect. At least have the decency to say nothing or “no comment.” The guy says “…before his business practices came to light.” What the fuck does that mean? I fucking make money. That’s what I do. That’s why I can fucking afford a fucking $2 million album. What do you think I do, make cookies? No, motherfucker. I sell drugs. [Laughs] I felt insulted.

He continues…

I’m staring at a Picasso in my living room right now that’s no different from the Wu-Tang box except it’s about 20 times more expensive. It is what it is. If you sell me some shit, then sell me some shit. If you don’t want to sell it to me then don’t sell it to me. You’ve got to research Albanians, it’s the most hot tempered culture there is. I have a crazy temper myself. He’s from the streets. The guy hasn’t been in the hustle in 20 years. He doesn’t want to get me angry and I’m getting angry. Again, what Ghostface said to Bronson was 100 hundred times worse than me and RZA. This is starting to get into some weird Albanian shit. There are similarities, very similar. I’m just getting fed up. If he doesn’t think I have the resources to do something, he fucking doesn’t know me. If Ghostface can make people disappear, what the fuck do you think I can do? I’ll fucking snap the CD on fucking TV and not even listen to it if that’s what he fucking wants.

And I stopped reading after this:

I’ve written some rhymes. They’re alright. Teams or not, it still has to come from the [artist]. I think I’m a creative guy. I’ve got a pretty deep knowledge of Hip Hop. I’ve got a good vocabulary, a decent sense of humor and enough material to last a fucking lifetime. I’ve got enough material to write five autobiographies. At 32 years old, I’ve seen and done more shit than just about anyone. That should help. Sometimes it’s just that magic that makes one of these guys different from another. I’m not counting on that, that’s for sure. I’m counting on how I have a lot of money. Can I be the next Suge Knight or Puff Daddy or whatever in this game? Probably. Birdman? Probably. What does Birdman do? He fucking rubs his hands and fucking every now and then maybe he’ll say something. But he’ll try hard to look cool and bullshit.

Should I even editorialize? I mean, most of us have seen and heard crazy before. This is off the rocking chair, bat shit, unprofessional, crazy.

Are Albanians nuts?

In my experience, growing up in a much harder part of Brooklyn than Mr. Shkreli’s gentrified Sheepshead Bay, absolutely. Some of the Albanians I knew in Brooklyn were psychopaths. But were they as tough as the lads from Shaolin?

You’ve got to be fucking kidding me.

Oh, there is one small addendum to this charming story. Recently he gave an interview and was asked about the scandal of him raising the price on that aids drug. You know the story, yes? Well, he’s no longer hiding the fact that he’s a supreme asshole, of monumental proportions, exclaiming that if left to his own devices, he’d probably raise the prices even higher.

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Jim Grant: The Fed May Be Raising Rates into a Recession

Business is dwindling. This is the consequence of 7 years of manipulation. A quarter to a third chance of the economy heading into recession. He cites action in junk bond market and transports as warning signals for the overall economy.

Ultimately, the Fed will have to cut rates back to zero–because the economy isn’t lifting off.

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Santa Yellen Slays Krampus; Stocks Surge 223

Lots of cocaine was being tossed around the trading desk today, as investors kicked each other in the chests to get shares of anything but SHAK (huge piece of shit). Whether 4% rates by 2018 is attainable, bullish or bearish, traders took the news and ran with it. Short sellers were waiting for a sell the news event, and when that didn’t happen, they got fucking steam rolled.

For me, it was a very joyous occasion, having my largest position (PAH) up over 20%, followed by a massive move in another top position of mine yesterday (VRX).

For the session, I gained more than 3%, making it 5.5% to the good over the past two days. I cannot recall the last time that occurred. Nevertheless, I will be reducing risk heading into the post Fed hike latter days of 2015, attempting to lock in my 20% gain for the year.

Oh, yeah, Exodus wins again.

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The Fed Reveals “Plot” That Gets Rates to 4% by 2018

This doesn’t make any sense to me.

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The Fed released that “dot plot” today, suggesting that if everything goes according to plan, rates will go to 1.5% by the end of 2016 and 4% by 2018.

Are they fucking insane? The euro would be worth, what, 0.25 v the dollar and oil $5 if this coup plays out?

In order to get to 1.5%, the Fed will need to raise rates 5 times next year and another 10 times after that.

Actually, if I’m not mistaken, the “Maestro”, Allan Greenspan, jacked rates higher 16 times before nearly ending western finance as we knew it, back in the good old housing bubble days, no?

Will someome explain to me how the Federal government will finance 22-24 trillion in debt when rates are at 4%? I’ll wait.

Anyone want to impart some knowledge as to how the Fed thinks they can get to 4% by 2018, or even 1.5% by 2016?

Stocks are up. Yes, humans are crazy and behave impulsively. I am looking down the road here and cannot fathom the market being okay with this psychotic monetary policy.

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STUPID FED HIKES BY 25 BPS; INSANE ‘DOT PLOT’ RELEASED

The madness. When will it stop.

Fed hiked by 25 bps, just because.

Because why?

Because they can.

First Fed hike since 2006.

One and done? Hardly. The Fed just released their “dot plot” and they see rates rising to– get this — 4% by 2018 and by 1.5% by the end of 2016.

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New Fly Buys Ahead of Fed

I sold out of more than half of my CNC position and added to FCX and JAZZ.

The JAZZ purchase was a much larger buy, assets wise. But my heart is in the FCX trade, which has done nothing but harangue me ever since I bought it.

I increased my FCX position by 30%

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Citron Tweets Their Short of 2016; And it Craters

Actually, this looks like a really good bet, all things considered.

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The growth for MBLY is great; but valuation is obscene. Then you read someething like this and wonder how MBLY will establish a moat for their software.

Will they become the Tivo of auto-piloted cars?

George Hotz, also known as Geohot, hacked the iPhone in 2007 while he was still in high school. A few years later, he made a similar exploit by hacking the PlayStation and releasing his code online, which resulted in a lawsuit from Sony.

Since then, Hotz had stints at several high-profile tech companies such as Google, Facebook, SpaceX and most recently at the AI firm Vicarious at which he worked as a researcher until last July according to his LinkedIn profile.

Now we learn that Hotz was approached by Tesla to help develop the company’s Autopilot system, according to a video released today by Bloomberg.

Hotz was apparently not a fan of Mobileye’s system and thought he could build a better one by himself. According to Bloomberg, Musk wanted to contract Hotz to develop the system for Tesla or to simply work for the company:

“Frankly, I think you should just work at Tesla. I’m happy to work out a multimillion-dollar bonus with a longer time horizon that pays out as soon as we discontinue Mobileye.”

Hotz replied:

“I appreciate the offer. but like I’ve said, I’m not looking for a job. I’ll ping you when I crush Mobileye.”

Musk answered with his well-known one-word email “OK”.

The now 26-year old hacker decided to found his own company, comma.ai, to develop level 3 autonomous driving systems, which translate into about 99% self-driving.

The fuck?

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Goldman: Fed Lift Off “Comes At An Awkward Time”

Naturally, this time is different, posits that Goldman strategist who queries as to why the Fed is hiking rates now.

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He knows it’s wrong; but for some reason, he just can’t get himself to cast aspersions at the all mighty Fed. They must have some sort of New World Order agreement in place that the Vampire Squid and Fed Mothership can never be at odds with one another.

Liftoff by the Federal Reserve “comes at an awkward time for U.S. credit markets,” writes Charles Himmelberg, chief credit strategist at Goldman Sachs.

That’s because high-yield credit spreads are flashing a warning sign, rising to levels that have been historically consistent with a U.S. recession:

“In our view, oil prices remain the epicenter of both credit risk and credit risk sentiment,” the strategist wrote.

“It is true that corporate leverage has risen over the past 4-5 years to levels that have not prevailed since the 1990s but, absent elevated recession risk, this does not justify current spread levels,” wrote Himmelberg.

“And even if rates rise much faster than we anticipate, these low long-term rates are locked in, and debt maturities over the next few years are unusually low due to the high pace of refinancing activity over the past several years,” the strategist added.

The pain will be contained to these energy and materials sectors, Goldman suggests. Any broader reduction in access to credit will ultimately support the asset class as the market will not be forced to digest more supply from new issues, and further down the road, refinancing activity.

As such, elevated high-yield spreads aren’t a sufficient cause to halt the U.S. economy’s forward progress, concludes Goldman.

“For the broader economy, while developments in credit markets bear close monitoring, we do not yet see a case for a more far-reaching credit crunch,” asserts Economist Zach Pandl.

In summary, it will be contained to the energy markets, the fuckery that is. Also, we must keep a watchful eye on those pesky credit markets. But, rest assured, there will be no credit crunch.

#timestamp

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The Force is Strong with This Ackman: $PAH SOARS!

End of year chicanery is in full effect, classic Ackman. Yesterday his VRX ran like a freed prisoner. Today, PAH is lighting fire to the faces of shorts.

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This is actually my largest position, so a move of this magnitude helps Le Fly greatly. For the year, I am up nearly 18%. But I feel as if I’ve traded 200 years worth of markets to earn it.

All in all, a great year for me, despite doing nothing for the past 6 months. This end of year push is exaclty what I need to get the adrenaline pumping again.

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