It’s like they took the analysts who issued reports on SHAK, skulled fucked them, then threw them down a flight of stairs, lined with mustard, and then tossed hamburgers at them.
Shake Shack prelim Q3 $0.12 vs $0.07 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $53.3 mln vs $47.27 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Shake Shack sees FY15 revs $189-190 mln from $171-174 vs $180.33 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees FY16 $237-242 vs. $228 mln consensus
Huge numbers. I cannot stress to you how good these numbers are and what it means for the stock. The bear case has been demolished. Barring some sort of fucked up cosmic event, SHAK should rain down a serious pummeling onto the faces of short sellers tomorrow, scorched earth motherfuckers (extra Les Grossman).
I’m like the Hamburglar from the 80’s, only for SHAK. I know the stock is expensive, trading over 13x sales. For a restaurant stock, it’s fucking expensive as shit. But, I’m a huge fan of restauranteur Danny Meyer and love his vision with Shake Shack. Many of you will disagree with my boldness in SHAK, on a multitude of reasons. Let me be clear, I am not immune to the dangers of earnings. One slip and SHAK is in the 20’s, where I will take the role of a Victorian gambler and execute a martingale trade.
Some thoughts heading into the close, ahead of earnings.
Sixty four percent of the shares are sold short.
BEWARE of another secondary offering.
Co raised guidance last qt to $171-174 mill for year. Look for that number to rise. The street is at $180 mill.
For this quarter, consensus is for a profit of 7 cents with revenues of $47.2 mill.
I think anything north of $52 mill in sales for the quarter and guidance above $180 mill will make the stock spike $10. Like I said, if they miss, elevator cables will be cut and the stock smashed to pieces.
Ralph Lifshitz aka Ralph Lauren stepped down as CEO a short while ago. People started to speculate that it would mark the bottom in the stock, as the new CEO would be permitted to sheaf Ralph’s golden calves, pet projects that cost the company a fortune.
This latest quarter, just reported, was a gem, making new CEO Stefan Larsson look like a fucking genius.
The New York-based company has been reorganizing its business this year to cut $110 million in annual costs to combat weaker sales. A new CEO, Stefan Larsson, begins leading the company this month. He replaced founder Ralph Lauren, who will stay on with the company as executive chairman and chief creative officer. Larsson previously worked at Gap Inc.’s low-priced brand Old Navy and before that, H&M.
Ralph Lauren reported fiscal second-quarter net income of $160 million, or $1.86 per share. The results topped Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of eight analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of $1.73 per share.
Revenue slipped 1.2 percent to $1.97 billion, beating the $1.95 billion analysts expected on average, according to FactSet.
In the current quarter, which includes the important holiday shopping season, the company said it expects revenue to rise up to 2 percent from the previous year. Analysts expected revenue to rise about 1.4 percent to $2.04 billion.
This is one of the former premier retailers in the space. It fell on hard times, as fashion is very fickle. However, it appears the new CEO is fixed on cost cutting, which should boost earnings and attract institutional investors.
As an aside, for those of you unfamiliar with the front page picture and why such a maniac is clad in polo clothing, in front of a Ralph Lauren flag, like some sort of ISIS devil, but for the love of fashion instead of head cutting.
Back in the 90’s, in Brooklyn, there was a gang called “Lo Life’s”. I used to see these criminals traveling in packs of 30, ransacking Macy’s RL section. They prided themselves for their Polo garments and would regularly rob people for their Ralph Lauren outer-garments. It was like a mob of violent criminals, hell bent on acquiring and collecting Ralph Lauren clothes, which is part of the reason why Ralph once publicly lamented over ‘urban people’ wearing his clothes.
Poor Lifshitz, he changed his name to sound waspy and thought his clothing would be worn, exclusively, by yacht traveling 1%ers. Little did he know it would be hijacked by ‘urban lads’, embraced and resulted in wanton criminality, including murders, all for the love of that little man atop his horse.
In light of AWAY, KING and CTCT getting bids, I wanted to explore this battered space, in search for treasure (extra Black Sails). It’s no surprise that I’ve always been a huge advocate for YELP, even though the stock has done nothing but cause me pain. That being said, YELP is, by far, the most attractive social media property on the net, post meltdown.
Granted, the morons at YELP have yet to figure out how to make money; the stock is trading just 3.5x sales, a fraction of its former self.
AWAY just got bought out for 6.5x sales. Let’s explore a few other social media names that are heavily shorted and might offer upside from here.
MWW, the job website company, is trading less than 1x sales with 29% of shares sold short. The stock is up 38% YTD, but down 3% over the past month.
ANGI has been ripping tits. The company has delved into a new strategy, one that is more concierge than review site. The stock has been surging, up 32% YTD and +17% over the past month. Even still, 29% of ANGI is sold short and it’s trading 1.3x sales.
GRPN has been a disaster. The idiot coupon company is down 63% YTD and -17% over the past month. It’s now trading less than 1x sales and 17% of the shares are sold short.
P is in hell, being targeted by everyone from Spotify to Apple. The stock has been crushed over the past month, down 42%. YTD, losses exceed 29%. Right now, the stock is trading less than 2.5x sales, with 14% of the shares sold short.
Lastly, SALE, another coupon play, just reported a pretty good quarter. YTD, the stock is down 25%, but up 21% this past month. Just 5% of the shares are sold short and it’s trading 2.2x sales.
I haven’t mentioned TWTR, ETSY and GRUB because they’re still absurdly expensive.
It appears the idiot youngsters of our great nation are too busy playing video games, talking shit on Instagram, and watching viral videos of Bob Ross (yes, that’s a thing happening now) on Twitch tv, than worrying about their future, buying homes, cars, shit like that.
The share of first-time buyers dropped to 32 percent from 33 percent last year, according to a National Association of Realtors survey that covered transactions in the 12 months through June. That’s below the long-term average of almost 40 percent, the group said in its report, released Thursday.
Rising home prices are holding back many young would-be buyers who can’t easily save for a down payment because of student-loan burdens and soaring apartment rents. The median amount of student debt for all buyers was $25,000, according to the survey. And the prices of the least-expensive previously owned homes — those most likely to be bought by first-time buyers — are rising faster than those of costlier residences.
It’s like they’re all stoners, even when they’re not stoned. They don’t like stocks, saving money, making money, or starting families. Their interest lies solely in vegging out, watching youtube videos, laughing at fucking anime.
Homebuilders shares are down in sympathy, knowing full well that the future homebuyers are bereft of any semblance of dignity and decorum.
Just when I thought Bill Ackman’s fortune had turned for the better, this shit happens. Shares of VRX are down a staggering 17% today, putting Bill’s intra-day losses on the idiot Candadian company at over $300 million.
He is losing more than $20 million per point.
As a result, people are just gunning at his positions, taking down PAH and giving rise to HLF. Truly, Bill Ackman is having a very, very bad day.
I don’t even know what the news is anymore for VRX. The stock is stuck in the biggest fag box I’ve ever seen. As such, the entire biotech sector is being shredded. ENDP is off more than 12% because people see them as a mini VRX. There is immense pain being widely distributed in the sector today and it bodes very poorly for the market, on the whole.
Regarding VRX, providing it’s not a fraud and Bill gets the biblical revenge he so desperately seeks, valuation is compelling.
It’s never easy to jump in front of a moving train. I rarely, if ever, buy blood like this. It’s too scary. But these are the type of flush out moves that, potentionally, put in bottoms. I know, the whole thing is a scam.
Remembe when BP was going to zero because the oil spill was uncontrollable and it was going to destroy the world? Or when Fukushima threated to disintegrate Japan and when MRK was going to zero because their meds caused insane heart attacks?
Thanks to a blowout quarter, powered by its killer mobile strategy, today’s gains have pushed the social giant right behind Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, ahead of AMZN and GE, to become the 6th largest company in the United States, by market cap.
For the quarter, Facebook accounted for 17.4% of global traffic. It is, essentially, a must own stock if you want to profit from the internet. The one thing to look forward to with FB is the fact that they’re blocked in China. With over 350 million internet users, China represents a unique business opportunity for the hoodied masters at Facebook. If, by chance, Zuckerberg can get the ban on Facebook lifted in China, the stock will soar to a gazillion dollars per share.
“You can’t have a mission of connecting the world and leave out the biggest country”, Mark Zuckerberg, Boss Hog, Faced Book.
With AWAY being acquired by Expedia and FB killing it, I think it’s fair to say Social Media stocks are back in play.
Inside Exodus, my social media basket is the best performing mini-index I put together, over the past month, with gains of more than 14%. With recent acquisitions of CTCT, KING and now AWAY, there’s probably more gains to be had (extra steroids).
Friday’s jobs report is most likely the last big market moving event of the year. With Yellen’s recent comments, and that fuckhead Dudley talking greasy daily, odds of a December rate hike are now upwards of 50%. Should the jobs numbers come in better than the expected 180k, things should get dicey, as in your portfolios will be shredded to pieces…maybe.
Expect the market to mark time over the next few days, entering into a state of malaise, as traders position in ahead of the number. If the Fed is really going to hike, dollars go up and oil and gas stocks get hammered. Oil stocks get hammered, not just because UUP is rallying; but because credit, inexorably, will get tighter. The Fed might actually be trying to induce bankruptcies amidst a number of injured sectors, in order to “clear the market.” I know that sounds fucking nuts; but the normal business cycle has been fucked for over 5 years now and maybe Yellen is old and crazy enough to do something bold.
Yields up; bonds down. Regional banks are winners, as well as money center banks. In short, I read that banks stand to make over $7 billion in additional profits, should the yield curve widen, thanks to Fed tightening.
The other headwind is King Dollar.
It’s up almost 20% over the past two years and it’s killing our exporters, making them less competitive and hurting earnings. This, of course, is not a zero sum game and perhaps orchestrated by the Fed and ECB, to help Europe, who was on the verge of dissolving like wet toilet paper in a bowl a few years ago. Since they started QE, everything has improved, including Italian, Spanish GDP, even Greek bonds have risen– in true opera-esque dramatic fashion.
Everything is done with purpose, by our benevolent central’d bankers. Try to read the tea leaves and be careful with your positions heading into Friday.
This is my 11,000 blog, work that has culminated since I had the crazy idea to ignore my million dollar advisory business for talking shit about hedge fund managers and the stock market online, about the internets, almost 8 years ago. The number 1 rule when blogging is to love doing it. Should you find it to be a chore, or it pisses you off because the ad rates are slavery-like, fall back son and become a reader again.
When I started finance blogging in 2007, the game was simple. You blogged and lured people in from the yahoo message boards, then talked shit in your comments section, having a grande old time. Since then, Twitter and Stocktwits were born, effectively stealing away the comments section. Readers found themselves in the indelible position of having to read 140 character or less, casting aside blogs because they were the new newspapers. Like all living species, the blogger had to adapt, so he took to Twitter and StockTwits, built up a small following, and then remanded them back to the blog through links and lures and demands.
Today, Twitter represents almost 30% of our inbound traffic, a site that has been fortunate enough to be operated by a space alien magician (SAM), blessed with over 65 million page views to date. The website layout must be mobile friendly, else you lose viewers. As you can see by our new look and approach, it is geared towards the ADD addled, picture loving, booze hound who enjoys to make fun of Bill Ackman in his spare time.
Web traffic has surged over 50% one month since the redesign. All of the bloggers at iBankCoin have stepped up their game and I logged one my biggest work months ever, with 208 blogs posted. Writing comes very natural to me; but sometimes I get bored from the monotony of finance. My new approach is geared more towards news and information, with some opinion mixed in. Instead of wasting my finger energy on insane missives that would easily get me tossed into a Chinese Burrito prison, I’ve concluded it’s far more interesting for me to give you, the pleb reader, housing tenement living motherfucker, my take on the egregious events that takes place, each and every day.
“The Fly” is omnipresent and shoots cannon balls into your living room sofa.
Thank you for coming to iBC and enduring my mood swings. If you truly appreciate the content that I provide here, tell your idiot friends to follow our corporate Twitter Account and to like our Faced Book page.
Why do I demand these things from you? While it might seem silly to you, and entirely juvenile, idiotic and lame, it is my purpose in life to spread our brand of propaganda as far and wide as humanly possible. All persons of reading age should know about men like Frederick Wilson and William Albert Ackman (sex crazed fiend), so that if they ever came across them in dark alley ways, or in Bill’s case, dungeons; they could avoid them and walk the other way.
“The Fly” is a the truth (here, here–slams cane into ground, tosses a bag of garbage onto his neighbors lawn).
