We’re all well aware of the systemic problems china is facing today. I think it’s important to note the lack of reform or stimulus to combat these deflationary pressures. The number one takeaway from this story playing out is that the great commodity run in copper, steel, oil and in the shipping industry is over, permanently. We may never see big economic growth emanating from those industries again…in our lifetimes.
The report was based on surveys of more than 2,100 firms across China and interviews with bankers, managers and executives. CBB began the series in mid-2012, when its inaugural survey indicated a pick-up in growth from early that year, a forecast later borne out.
The Beige Book’s profit reading is “particularly disturbing,” with the share of firms reporting earnings gains slipping to the lowest level recorded, CBB President Leland Miller wrote in the release. While retail and real estate held up reasonably well, manufacturing and services performed poorly, with revenues, employment, capital expenditure and profits weakening.
The survey shows “pervasive weakness,” Miller wrote in the report. “The popular rush to find a successful manufacturing-to-services transition will have to be put on hold for a bit. Only the part about struggling manufacturing held true.”
“More concerning than overall growth weakness was degradation of two components of the economy that were previously overlooked as sources of strength: the labor market and the impact of inflation,” Miller wrote. Given growth in input prices and sales prices slipped to record-lows while firm performance metrics fell, “it looked like firms were encountering genuinely harmful deflation,” he wrote.
As an investor, it’s important that we accept these new realities and cease trying to find bottoms in asset classes that will never come back, myself included. In 2016, I am going to stay fixed on allocating assets based solely on a top down approach, which will instill certain disciplines that will help me to avoid value traps and “great dip buying opportunities.”
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Agreed. We have entered a new financial era. It has taken awhile to take it in. You can see the signs: Icanh’s errors in commodities, the hedge fund fails, the failure of classical monetary policy, the political extremism.
population realizes too late. media reacts only after.
some of us just know truth & bullshit (armstretch)
Thank you, Fly. Cogent and insightful analysis.
“Permanently” is a long time. I’m not saying he will, but Xi Jinping could change this picture with the stroke of a pen. He still has huge reserve of U.S. $$, and can print as many RMB as he wants.
In the U.S., an infrastructure project requires years of environmental studies, political wrangling, litigation, etc. China has none of that. Xi and his family experience that nasty air in Beijing on a daily basis. I wonder how long before he chooses to do something about that.
Interesting point, No Cigar.
Everything if fine. Gartman is long.
Not a good sign. But then it’s not possible for someone to be wrong about the market 100% of the time.
More skull & crossbone cover photos
(I get up and make my eggs-over-easy
with a skull crossbone template. always
yolks as eyes
)
Senor Fly. Would that have kept one out of $WMT $JWN $M etc. This has the look of a giant free money unwind. No where to hide and all. Generational rug pull. Obviously they could start printing again.