The markets are in the pits and we should get an oversold rally soon. All true. But in Exodus, we actually measure pain, showing its tangible ugly face and identify places in the market when it might turn up.
The overall market is oversold. The amount of time needed to measure the success or failure of this signal is 10 trading days. In other words, if you’re buying TNA because you expect an immediate response, you’re not looking at the data correctly.
Number 2.
Today is the first day we’ve seen the tech score move into oversold territory, during this recent decline.
Number 3.
Despite the poor nature of the markets, major ETFs are not being flagged OS. Neither QQQ or SPY, both of which have phenomenal track records, are showing extreme stress. The only ETFs of note that are oversold are: IYT, TAN, GEZ and FEZ.
Number 4.
The market is in a weird spot now, caused by distressed debt in the oil and gas space and a looming Fed hike into the teeth of a recession. Previous conditions that led to a sharp oversold rally aren’t present now. It’s entirely possible that we keep selling right through the New Year’s.
Merry fucking X-mas.
As for you oil lovers out there. We measure the level of distress in all industries. We are getting there. But, as you can see by this oscillator, we haven’t entered the gates of hell just yet.
Jut for the mental exercise, wonder what kind of move we would get on a no hike announcement. Assuming it’s priced in that could be a big move.
+550
Well, better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.
Can’t you also argue that the initial reaction to a rate hike would be a move up? I mean it takes out the uncertainty and all so I think it would be a positive reaction and then when that is all said and done, down to the pits of hell we go into the new year.