If I told you nothing else mattered but the fate of the US dollar, would you believe me? Italian and French markets are leading the world this year, not because their economies are awesome, but because the euro had been going lower. Don’t look now, however, the dollar is now shitting the bed and this could be the beginning of some wonderful developments.
UUP vs SPY
For one, it allevites the pressure on our exports, which has been cited as a major issue of earnings loss from our fortune 500 companies, over and over again.
Also, it means oil and dollar denominated commodities will catch a bid. Look at how well gold and miners have been trading. You didn’t think it was because the financial system was about to collapse, did you?
Believe it or not, we need higher oil prices. With higher oil prices, over $100 billion in distressed oil and gas debt might get some financing. Otherwise, dark ominous clouds will enshroud the sector and high paying jobs will be lost.
Lads, I am trying to remain optimistic here. It’s easy to get glum and down and out, cast the world aside and sink into a hole of nothingness, begin to short stocks. But I know that’s a transient bet, one that, over time, will prove to be clownish and a bane to my checking account.
The currency wars are real and right now the dollar is winning by losing.
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bought WMT. haha fk-ers
Your macro reasoning is sound and it is not that “this time is different”. It is that this time we are in a bear market. That makes all the difference.
If the euro convincingly breaks 1.15, I’ll go long the futures.