It’s Not That Fun Anymore

I am 100% certain the market will be fun to trade again, one day. But this isn’t fun. As a bull, this is demoralizing and leads me to question whether or not I should bother holding onto losing positions.

A lot of people will hide these insecurities with a critical public. But I’ve been doing this shit for too long to worry about the opinions of others, having navigated some of the most fucked up tapes to have ever existed.

The bears are always talking gloom and doom, so I discount what most say as bias. But look at the price action here in many high beta names: dreadful. Perhaps the collapse in crude is a prelude of something awful to come. I recall in 2008, people thought lower crude meant good news for retailers, until the global economy collapsed and they were nearly bankrupted.

It’s very choppy and all eyes are on the Fed, once again. Will they raise rates into a chinese meltdown, at a time when deflation is clearly the problem and their own internal inflation targets aren’t being achieved?

Consensus opinion says yes.

Short term, this is all noise. The longer term will be steered by growth in China, plain and simple. Like 2008 was all about banks, 2015 is about China. If they are truly losing a handle and slowing in a significant manner, all markets will trade down, in a big way.