When I say “they”, I mean bankrupted fucktards who just got wiped out playing the long side like an animal. Those guys are being washed away with the sands of time now. I bet you think I don’t want to buy this open? You’d be wrong.
I am dying to put money to work. I just don’t like the cross-currents of moronic Fed officials holding rate hikes over our heads, like the Sword of Damocles. I do like those BBY numbers, which bodes well for GPRO, AMBA and AAPL. The market should rally 5%+ over the next 5 days. We should get a continuance of the rally tomorrow and then the short squeeze should commence by Thursday.
If you’re like me, heavily cash, sidelined like a paradiddle, bide your time and wait to see if the animals completely fuck this market with their sell orders. The opening tick is over. Now we will drift throughout the day, ebbing and flowing between fear and greed. The best time to execute a trade will be near the bell in preparation for tomorrow’s continuance.
At the top of my buy list is to average down in CYBR, ONCE and add to SBNY, AAPL and start a new position in either SHAK or NFLX.
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Pain trade is a break of y’day’s lows or a gorilla run straight up IMO…. former destroys longs/dip buyers and most shorts, who’ve presumably covered; latter doesn’t let anyone participate.
gibberish
Fair point.
Thanks
How can both be the pain trade? The longs/dip buyers get to participate in the gorrilla rally.
Pain for those who failed to buy, or did not buy enough, which would result in them chasing.
Denninger says NFLX is a zero though.
He is literally insane.
Had to google this guy and he’s been short nflx for a few years now.
Meaning he’s broke…?
Wait until Oct. to go long, otherwise short the rallies.
We are tracking the Aug.-Oct. 1987 time frame. There will be violent up and down moves.
The best thing for the bull in this market would have been a complete and utter wash out at the open today.
Fear never hit an extreme, let’s buy the dip was the mantra.
Also the late September-early December 2008 time frame.
There were 1332 NYSE 52-week lows yesterday- not enough. We need over 2000 for a washout.
Be careful on $NFLX… Long $NFLX, short media has been a consensus hedge fund trade for the last six months and especially the last month. I think we see that trade reverse sometime before the end of the year when people realize pay TV is not going away and $NFLX is never going to make any money, or at least not the long-term margins they’ve guided to.
Whose the incremental buyer here? Expectations are WAY too high and will disappoint just not sure when reality will set in. Good luck on the trade, but be wary of making it an investment.
I’m more attracted to $AMCX, $TWX and $DISCA here. I think DISCA goes back above $30 and maybe to $35 by the end of September after its analyst day. 12-13x forward earnings for companies growing EPS mid to high teens with long term contractual price escalators is too low. These should be mid teen multiples at least.
NFLX is not pay TV – it’s pay (and play on) everything. No idea what fair value is but on the basis of its library alone it will be around when the last cable subscriber unplugs.
It doesn’t own it’s library other than a few originals like house of cards. Everything else is licensed which they pay $3B a year (and ramping 20% per year) to the content providers who also own the pay TV networks. I think originals are less than 10% of its library.
I’m waiting for my FIOS contract to expire so I can cancel. Pay TV will never be as big as it was unless they let you choose exactly what you want. Only reason people need live tv now is for sports.
TV is just a distribution channel. The Pay TV networks like the names I mentioned own the content so they are essentially platform agnostic.
Traditional pay TV will never be as big as it was at 100M house holds but now the content guys have like 98-99M TV households and also have 60M households that subscribe to Netflix, Hulu, etc. that they can charge for their content that didn’t exist five years ago. I think pay TV subs will decline 1-2% annually but content prices go up high single digits so you still have a business growing top line at least mid single digits with massive operating leverage. A lot of people forget these companies are still banking coin off Netflix…
I think the word today for the tape is “meander” NFLX looks to be in a range from 96 – 110 – I am keying off those levels for a possible trade
tech bounce,
drift for couple days,
then continue down,…
too many dysfunctional moving pieces
opportunity in Oct/Nov
thoughts Professor Fly,…?
Unsure
I am hoping this correction grants us entry into the $SHAK at $37.50. I will wait. Given the exploded VIX are you still looking at Leaps for your position? I’ll stick to shares me’self, but curious how you were looking at things.
paradiddle me this …https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VE5U-QLgmYI
Cyber in general is on sale