There is Only One Way to Play This Game: With Conviction

Yesterday I sold WFT because I was afraid of a short term move lower. That was a mistake. As you know, my thesis is to be long oil through April, which is why SLCA is one of my largest positions. I demonstrated profound conviction as SLCA went lower, buying its shares down to $24.

Before I give you a lecture about conviction, it is important that you know it is impossible to have if your weighting is wrong. If you are invested too heavily in a stock or a particular sector, it’s like having a gun held against your head, which is attached to a trigger that is controlled by a clock. If you’re interested in longer time frames, start off by buying in small increments, anywhere between 1-4% of assets and move up.

It’s meaningless to sell a 2% position for a small, short term, profit. I’d much rather build up a position over time, then sell as the share price hits my targets.

Over the past year, here are some of my biggest winners, all of which I still hold, with entry points.

BX +18% ($33, $31)
STZ +32% ($87)–it never gave me a chance to buy lower
HAIN +40% ($44)
HAR +45% ($105, $95)
GILD +25% ($80, $93, $100)
JAZZ +25% ($143)
PANW +63% ($99, $81)
BID +13% ($40, $35)
WFM +46% ($40, $38)
ICPT +20% ($236, $154)
AAPL +32% ($90, $103)

There are other stocks that I’ve stubbornly held onto, which haven’t panned out yet, such as: YELP, NDRM, SLCA, MU and of course your favorite HABT.

The moral of the story is, if you’re not sure about what you’re doing, then you’re just wafting in the wind, controlled by small moves, churning your face away into a blender. We’ve all been down the road of indecisiveness and it’s an unpleasant trip.

I am absolutely convinced, thanks to the advice of ancient spirits, that this market will trade higher. Greedily, I want to capture as much of the upside as I can. To do that, there is only one course of action, which is to shut the fuck up about down days, take the hits when the come, and plan for the future.