iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,250 Blog Posts

2015’s Biggest Winners (rolls eyes)

The median return for gold stocks in 2015 is +16.8%. Many are up more than 30%, very few are down. Silver stocks, as you would imagine, are up similarly. After that, marijuana stocks are higher by 11% and then, finally, REITs are up around 8%. Nothing else is up 5%, as a sector, not even biotechs.

These are degenerate, homeless man, winners.

In short, if you’ve managed to make coin this year, you’re either a bear shitting gold bug or chaser for yield, also a whore of another varietal. None of the risk sectors are working; and if you’re into making money off momo stocks, you’re gonna have to be quick. Bounces are being sold within a day or two and bonds are relentlessly trading higher.

Much of this is due to currencies. I’d like to chalk up the melt up in TLT to dollar strength, but that doesn’t explain it all. If that was the case, european bonds would’ve been trading down with their currency. That simply isn’t the case. Can it be oil producing nations finding safety in western bonds? Perhaps. I can’t imagine many Russian oligarchs wanting to keep their money in rubles these days.

Whatever the reason is, the perception is that something is wrong and that is hurting sentiment.

Either TLT drops $15 from current prices or the Dow falls 1,500 points. This deflationary scare cannot continue for too much longer, without it finally grabbing hold of equities, which is the proverbial ‘last man standing.’

Also, heading into the big ECB meeting this week, I am on edge due to expectations versus potential outcome. The europeans have a way to fuck things up and right now everyone is relying upon them to do something bold.

The last time europe did something bold is when Germany invaded Poland.

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36 comments

  1. bathsalts

    sounds like a good time to load up on bath salts

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  2. Quality Control Inferno
    Quality Control Inferno

    The day foreign investors start piling out of the USD is the day the stock market tanks/crashes. See 1987. The perception right now is that the USD cannot go down. That perception will eventually subside. USD/JPY in particular will be the instrument to watch on ECB day, IMO.

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  3. Mr. Partridge

    Thanks for noticing… 🙂 rocking year so far

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  4. bathsalts

    fly on a serious note im a long time loser and really been trying to learn the way of people who know what the fuck they are doing unlike me i have $5000 im looking to start with my question with that little capital is it worth trading individual stocks or just mutual fund it?thanks in advance for a serious answer

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    • zheeeem

      Serious answer? Buy a little bit of a broad market ETF like RSP or VTI each month, reinvest dividends, and increase the amount you put in each year. Keep going until wealthy.

      You could invest in individual stocks, but for that it helps if you know what you’re doing.

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    • Mr. Cain Thaler

      You should consult a retirement specialist, possibly through work, and make sure you are taking advantage of all retirement subsidies. Leave no free money on the table.

      Investing your own money is something you do AFTER you hit all the low hanging fruit tiers below. That means boring, vanilla investment funds charging a fraction of 1% to hold a thousand different positions, which is half funded by your employer. Or, if you own your own business, a Keogh account sheltering some reasonable percentage of the proceeds.

      Investing your own money is what you do after you have 2-5% socked away every month into a retirement account, another 1-2% into any unique special opportunities (company stock at 5% discount?), and possibly making the mortgage (since that’s about on par with rent these days).

      If you’re a young guy, that’s probably most of your cash flow. But after that, if you can swing it, throw a couple hundred bucks a month into your account.

      If $5K is all you have and you’re just getting into stocks, you’re going to lose $5K and be five years behind the ball. Do the basics first.

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      • bathsalts

        thank you mr thaler i will heed your advice

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        • alf44

          .

          “mr thaler” ???
          —-

          What is this ?

          “Pee Wee’s Playhouse” ?

          —–

          Screw you, “bathsalts” … AND your fictional $5000 !!!

          Jeeeez !!!

          .

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  5. Mr. Partridge

    Go look at Shanghai tonight … they love fireworks…

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    • Quality Control Inferno
      Quality Control Inferno

      Holy hell down 6.3% in the session. This has something to do with the Chinese government putting restrictions on margin.

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      • Mr. Partridge

        yes and buy the way 6.3% is no big deal for them hahaha

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        • asteroids

          Today is a bank holiday. Of course you would expect major supersized fuckery somewhere on the planet.

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  6. Marc David

    PPT will predict any major moves before the moves. If you are a member, you should be relatively safe. If not, I guess you can hang on and ride the coaster with the rest of us non-1%ers.

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  7. j

    Here’s where I stand re US stocks, Mr. Fly.

    The appreciation of the US Dollar is a tightening of monetary policy, as you well know. In my mind the market appears to be spooked witless that the Fed will ignore that and tighten anyway.

    Even if the ECB does disappoint as it no doubt will, because they always disappoint, the US market would be fine if the Fed gave some guidance it at least is watching the dollar appreciation and taking it into account.

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  8. mx2101

    bathsalts-

    Although you did not ask me, here’s my view:

    1. You need to save and add money to the account as much as possible. Adding just $200 a month into the account will return a yearly gain far greater than most mutual or index funds.

    2. Saving and adding money will also help get the account over 25K. This is important because you do not want pattern day trader factors impacting your trading decisions.

    3. Whether you trade or invest, position sizes and leverage are questions I’ll leave to others here.

    4. Unless you are “betting it all on black” this will be a slow, progressive progress. If you are relatively young and have discretionary income to add to the account, things could turn out fine.

    Best wishes

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  9. mx2101

    Also regarding # 3

    Your account size is too small. Because of this you have a probability problem.

    Its a tough situation for anyone. As you add money to the account this problem will diminish. You need to be where a small and likely trade gain amounts to more than grocery money.

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    • bathsalts

      thanks mx2101 appreciate the words of wisdom

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      • ironbird

        With only 5k you must gamble at first. If gambling is not your style than wait for a mini crash. Investing in an index fund right now is insane. Prices will come down they always do after big runs.

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        • ironbird

          And most importantly? Do not listen to people you do not know in the comment section of these hallowed halls, even if iBankcoin is the best financial site on the internets.

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      • woj

        @bathsalts, I think the first question is how much will it hurt if you lose the $5k? Would it affect your life? If it would, then stocks is not the way to go. If it is play money, then do some research on a few names and invest in something you think is of good value right now.

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  10. J Adabese (your pen pal)
    J Adabese (your pen pal)

    “The last time europe did something bold is when Germany invaded Poland.” hahahahahahahahahahahaha

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  11. bathsalts

    thanks everybody for your help

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  12. bathsalts

    dont know where all your hostilities are coming from but whatever quacks everywhere why would this site be any different

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  13. alf44

    .

    YOU’RE a fraud “Mr. $5000” !!!

    You KNOW it … I KNOW it … Bob Dole KNOWS it !!!

    .

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