No Fade Today

You’re all too jaded. You forget that bears get fucked too, especially in bear markets. Remember when the market went up a thousand points in the depths of the 2009 crisis? Of course you don’t–because you’re all punk kids, or if you were a bear, you died that day.

Breadth is at a solid 82%. It is very unlikely that we will sell off. Santa Yellen did what she was ordered to do. Now she’s at her local diner eating a club sandwich.

If there is one thing you should take from this blog, it is this: in the end, everyone gets fucked–even bears in bear markets.

I don’t care what happens today. I can become homeless and live inside of a garbage can, but will still be content because of the availability of Cuban cigars. Yes, it’s true, after a gagillion years we are normalizing relations with Cuba.

Let the Italian mafia live long, prosper, and rebuild that idiot island of doctors and auto mechanics into the Mecca of the caribbean.

In other news, get long cigar shoppes.

NOTE: I added to SLCA.

Seeing the energy complex rip off heads and shit down shoulders, I added to my SLCA and FMSA positions. In addition to that, I bought more BALT, seeing the shippers starting to percolate. If indeed we are to rally, the fucking shippers have a 100% move in them.

My other energy lotto play, purchased the other day, WRES, is ripping off mammaries.

I doubt Janet Yellen has even bothered to look at the news. I am almost certain she still believes oil is still trading at $100, just like Joe Kernan and the rest of the fucktards on CNBC. In case you’re wondering, the oil and gas industry employs almost 6 million people in this country. More than 10% of all new jobs created, since 2007, has been in this industry. Skimming over reports, I can tell you, unequivocally, US rig count and cap ex budgets are set to plummet in as big way. More than 500 rigs are scheduled to be idled soon and the Bakken shale turned back into a wasteland. Pink slips by the truckload will be delivered.

Yet, you turn on the teevee and these fucking morons are beating off to higher interest rates all day. Sure, that’s exactly what the currency market needs now–a hawkish Fed to super charge the dollar vs the ruble.

I have little confidence in this rally sticking, post Fed. There is a certain group think, rooted in extreme idiocy, infecting the minds of everyone.

A few quick ideas.

SYRG, FANG, GPOR, PDCE and MTDR have the best balance sheets and wells around. They are low cost producers and should make it out of this mess unscathed. Then again, who knows where crude will stabilize? I’ve looked over countless oil and gas companies and I hate most of them. With over $500 billion in debt, this industry is slated to be destroyed. The junk bond market is in free-fall and that negative sentiment is spilling over into ordinary corporates. It’s imperative that you own companies who are aptly financed.

Lastly, I find it supremely comical that the retards over at GE were beguiled during the ’08 meltdown for being a financial company and now find themselves equally misfitted during the energy crisis, as an energy company. In recent statements they said business would be a lot better if oil were $125. Good luck.

I haven’t slept in 36 hours. Christmas exploded throughout my house, decorations everywhere. Yet, I continue to sulk and mope, plot and scheme, during a time when I should be cheerful and optimistic. Why do I do it?

I’m not just managing my own bullshit accounts like the lot of you, see. I have responsibilities to others and have been charged with maintaining and growing the assets of others. Much to my chagrin, none of that has panned out in 2014, quite the opposite actually.

It’s almost common knowledge now that the market is destined to fail. I can walk down the street and ask small school children or crossing guards and they will tell me so. After all, we’ve been given a $500 billion tax cut and that simply won’t stand. All of the oil wells here in the northeast have been shut down and workers laid off. I am told if you fire oil workers before Xmas, as a manager, you get a bonus. Therefore, oil managers everywhere are firing as many oil workers as possible for the holiday season.

I read somewhere that Apple products are being bought like fucking mad inside Russia, like Miami Zombie crazy. Apparently the communist bastards over there fancy our capitalistic electronics as a form of currency, instead of their toilet paper rubles. Think about it. It makes sense.

If Putin says Russia is being targeted by the west and its currency broken on purpose, he would’t be lying. With $400 billion in cash reserves there is little reason to target Russia. There are plenty of others countries, like Australia and Canada, who suck more. Nevertheless, Russia is the enemy, despite the fact that Canada burned down our fucking white house and is filled with loyalists to the British Crown.

Tomorrow we get to hear what Janet Yellen has been up to. I bet she’s been drinking plenty of egg cremes and has been visiting her podiatrist regularly. In light of this human crisis, massive deflation and subsequent panic, I am sure she will suggest that the Federal Reserve intends to HIKE rates and usher in the apocalypse. Then a giant centaur will stomp its way through the NYSE and begin biting off the heads of traders, whilst slapping others with its giant centaur cock.

Merry Christmas.

The problem with having a large cash position is that it makes you lazy. You just wait there, hoping for God to present himself to you and offer you true elixirs. Sadly, what is likely to happen is the market will turn and you will miss that glorious melt up day. Many of you thought it was today. But the signs were everywhere, proving the contrary.

Back in 2008-2009, my main course of profit was via 3x inverse etfs. If you have 30% cash and 70% long high beta stocks, it makes perfectly good sense to buy a 3x index etf, like TZA, to hedge your longs. However, at this very moment in time, and I only tell you this because we are in crisis, The PPT is flagging OVERSOLD. The last time it flagged OS was back in early October, just before the epic melt up.

Having said that, after we get a sharp rally, the following etfs are all suitable hedges against high beta longs.

ETF/ 1 Mo returns

DWTI (3x inverse oil) +90%

ERY (3x energy bear) +50%

EDZ (3x emerging markets) +30%

TMF (3x treasury bull) +22%

On the flip side, if you are scared to buy stocks, an alternative play would be to short treasuries, via TBT or TMV. Rest assured, whenever the market decides to bounce, TLT will trade lower, substantially. Shorting treasuries up here seems to be a low risk, long the market, directional trade.  I am purposely avoiding country etfs, like RUSS and BZQ because both Russia and Brazil are too oversold to pile on here. I am also avoiding gold and volatility etf’s, due to the inane nature of both instruments.

With my money, I am likely to do very little, as my tolerance for loss is at zero. Hedging will likely be done after a rally through index puts.

Let me try to understand why rates should go higher.

Do you want to raise rates because our jobs market is doing well? Might I remind you that the oil and gas industry is in tatters and will be laying off hundreds of thousands people within the next 6 months. I am amazed by the experts on the television who still insist that the Fed will raise rates. HELLO, MCFLY, ANYONE HOME? You have to be a complete idiot to believe deflation isn’t the main risk to the global economy now.

Look, dry bulk prices are in the hole. Iron Ore prices are at 2009 crisis levels. Oil is at crisis levels. Russia’s economy was targeted, post Ukraine, and seemingly destroyed. Their currency is worthless and their main source of income eliminated.

Let’s not kid ourselves. I was on the fence about the reason as to why oil was tanking. At first I though Saudi Arabia wanted to shut the Bakken down. But now it’s clear. This is all an economic war against Russia–because they didn’t bow down to the great Xerxes aka Obama. I don’t know why we even give a shit about the Ukraine. But here we are, in the midst of a developing economic war. Most of us will become casualties. Today’s losers were airline stocks and consumer discretionary, the very names that should be working in the cheap crude environment.

Very simply, the Fed must forget about raising rates and start another round of QE.

Oh, one last thing before I go: since we are at war with Russia, albeit an economic one, the Fed will not act. This is intentional and designed to afflict maximum pain. Ergo, they are prepared to sacrifice our growth for Russia’s total annihilation.

Today’s big rally is “poof”, swept away with the sands of time. Plenty of people got sucked into this one. I can make your lives 100% easier. Don’t buy anything until you see, at a minimum, a 3% upside move in WTI. Just because we reversed the losses and edged higher doesn’t mean everything is okay.

The algos aren’t very happy right now. Even my hamburger stock is in the hole, down almost $10 in two days, just because.

In case you’re curious, I am in a 40% cash position. GPRO is still my #1 position, but it’s 1/2 the size it was yesterday. I am sick to my stomach–because you know I saw this coming. I chalked it up to being ‘cursed’ and simply waited to be executed.

Tonight’s trade in Russia is extremely important. However, the most important thing is oil. While lower oil prices might mean tax cut for the masses, it spells doom for an industry that was being revered as an American, modern day, industrial success.

The Russian stock market was down 14% today. Following a staggering 650 basis point increase in interest rates, from 10.5% to 17%, the Russian Ruble declined by another 18% this morning. It’s obvious to me that someone is trying to break Russia in two. Over the past decade, Russia has accumulated over $400 billion in cash reserves. I am guessing those reserves are being used to try to stop this rout. But this wave of unremitting panic is too violent for them to arrest.

As a result, global markets have the jitters. We aren’t seeing a panic yet, since western economies are fairly detached from Russia. However, I invite people to remember the ghost of 1998 and how the Thai Baht nearly brought the world to its knees.

Oil is down by another 3.5%– and we are being told this is a good thing. The people on the television are once again alluding to interest rate hikes. Only the family idiot would go on teevee today, seeing interest rates at new lows and panic in the air, and suggest the Fed should tighten. You’ve been mollycoddled all of your lives and now your stupidity has taken on a savage quality to it.

The market has fribbled away any semblance of normalcy in my life. Frankly, I see everything from a cynical perspective, trained in the flames of correction–disciplined to the point of aversion. I see gold taking off and futures spiraling lower. TLT is going to hit new highs and all I can deduce is we are in the midst of a financial panic.

The only sane course of action is coordinated central bank easing, in order to catch this devil by its tail before it’s allowed to manifest and spread its poison to other areas of the global market place.

I’ve always been a big fan of QE. It made my life easier, sort of like a drug that only made me feel euphoric and safe. But ever since the evil Yellen regime took over the Fed, from legendary American hero, Dr. Benjamin Bernanke, the market has been hard.

Now, I am going to gloss over a few points, regarding the prospect of the Fed stepping in to stop the deflationary vortex. Your opinions on whether or not the Fed “should” do more QE is irrelevant. All that you’re required to do is make deductions and logical leaps, without hurting yourselves.

This is the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate:

“The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy’s long run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates.”

In other words, the Fed is targeting inflation, availability of credit and now the jobs market. In their recent statements, they said full employment and 2.5% inflation rate was part of their new missions to make America great again.

What has transpired in recent months?

Well, the oil and gas industry, a segment of the economy that has created over 1.8 million jobs since 2008, is in ruins. Am I exaggerating? ABSOLUTELY NOT. If the price of crude is permitted to go to $40 or $30 per barrel, every single worker in the Bakken shale will be laid off. The result of massive job losses and calamitous drop in oil will result in a much lower than 2% annual inflation rate.

Ask yourself this question:

If the Fed was perfectly willing to stimulate asset prices when oil was $100 and the oil industry booming, why wouldn’t they opt to stimulate now when the world is 100% assuredly sliding into a deflationary vortex?

Do we simply sit around and wait for Russia to implode, then work out a deal via the IMF 3,000 Dow points lower? Or, does the Fed, for once in their pathetic lives, step in front of this crisis and offer price stability?