The Life of a Speculator

When GPRO hit $85 yesterday, it was all but assured that it’d keep heading higher, amidst the fanfare of being the hottest product this holiday season. People were tripping over themselves to get long. Then the market closed and the company priced a secondary 4 points below the market, revealing a weak hand to the scoundrels on Wall Street. The retail heavy clientele got locked into a doomed deal and those very same people sold with reckless abandon today.

Now no one is talking about GPRO heading higher anymore. The lies and the fear mongering that was purported by short sellers must be true. We must sell because of an avalanche of new shares heading to market. No one wants GPRO cameras anymore.

It’s funny isn’t it? But this is what makes the stock market great. Sure, I lost a small fortune from yesterday until today; but the lesson is priceless. I am a student of this market and have read the tales of Jay Gould, James Fisk, Commodore Vanderbilt, Uncle Drew, Henry Clews and others, and know that what we see here on a daily basis is just noise–utter nonsense. Stocks will fluctuate based upon the caprices of man. You can go broke trying. Plenty of great men, legendary traders, have died penniless.

But why?

Every once in awhile we let our guards down and believe we are Hercules, god amongst men–indestructible. Then that moment comes, the time when that perfect trades eludes us and drags us down into the dungeons of hell to exact punishment. Such an occasion has not befallen me on this day (down 0.5% for the session), despite GPRO being down a cool 7. But it’s this entire year of hand-wringing exercise, dodging bullet after bullet, that has exhausted me into a capitulatory demeanor.

It’s probably the reason why I didn’t sell GPRO when it was at $85, marked by The PPT as overbought–when it was destined to trade higher.

At least I made a solid $5 on that hamburger stock today.

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Mrs. Fly wants me to shave my beard, so that we can dine tonight like civilize people amongst our peers. I refused her request.

The stock market was supposed to tank today, amidst talk of horrible global growth and a cataclysmic oil price decline. That didn’t happen either.

Someone that I know is obviously on ‘tank chocolate’ and believes business trumps ethics. He will be wrong too.

Hell, I was wrong for letting a monster gain in GPRO wither away into a small one, thanks to a very weak shareholder base.

I can go on and one forever.

We are a fallible creature, pre-disposed to act upon our emotions instead of logic. Some of us hide our mistakes in dark closets and carry on as if nothing had happened, continuing life, miserably, like a bunch of Eddie Barzoons.

We seek happiness, ultimately. Its why we buy HABT at $33.5 and sell it at $36, then go to the internet to brag about our exploits. Justify everything with platitudes and account for nothing because we are Gods special little creature, just like Eddie Barzoon.

I started a small position in HABT, sub $34. The newly minted burger chain IPO has enjoyed 40-50% growth in recent years and fits perfectly in my “fuck Mcdonald’s investment philosophy, where people actually pay for quality food over cheap synthetic crap.

I will be adding to this names for months to come.

So I wake up to GPRO down more than $5, below its secondary pricing of $75. For an investment banker, this is a worst case scenario. However, the deal is already paid for and accounts have been debited. But you don’t want to screw over retail too badly, otherwise they won’t buy your next deal.

Then I head on over to the ever-so-trustworthy StockTwits, using my iPhone app. There I find the stream to be dominated by bearish fellows, chastising others for being long ‘such a stupid stock’ etc, etc, etc. The overall picture is a cabal obsessed with lower prices. Most of these fellows don’t know why they want lower prices– they just want them.

The truth is, their displeasure with life has led them to a fork in the road. They can either cave in and eat gallons of iced cream and gain 500 pounds. Or, they can go to the StockTwits website and talk shit about ‘stupid stocks.’

Shortly after I finished cobbling through the commentary on the StockTwits app, I moseyed on over to Briefing.com, a website dedicated to news and information. Top notch service, if you’re interested in that sort of thing. I read that BBY reported a blow out quarter and the stock surged. Now I know, being a long investor in that ‘stupid company’ called Gopro, that BBY makes up more than 25% of their revenues. Because of the great demand for GPRO’s products, they’ve recently cleared significant shelf space in order to accommodate consumers who are interested in buying their products.

So what is the bottom line, after all?

Well, GPRO is pricing a large secondary in the hole. The dynamics of the supply versus demand aspect, coupled with a bad tape, has led to a poor pricing environment. Unlike FEYE and other bubble stocks that popped, GPRO is still growing very rapidly and exceeding estimates. The stock isn’t trading 20x sales, like your run of the mill bubble stocks, but instead 8x. Fundamentals appear to be gaining momentum, heading into what might be the best holiday shopping season in over a decade, save the city of Buffalo who has been wiped clean off the map.

If my crystal ball had not been in the shoppe, I might’ve sold GPRO at $85 yesterday. However, as fate would have it, I am still in the stock. Silly ole me.

You know, there’s a fantastic iced cream shoppe down the block. You really should give it a try sometime.

You’re probably thinking “wow, that Fly dude must be really upset today”, seeing my top two positions, GPRO, YELP, get bludgeoned like this. However, you’d be wrong.

Everything happens in cycles and right now my cycle is on cleanse.

Dear Stock Gods,

Bring forth your fury with unabating vengeance. My methods by which I’ve achieved success are pure. Therefore, these trials by fire can only result in my eventual release from your grasp as an innocent man. Come hither and smoke a pipe, or maybe two, in my parlour, and I will show you who the true sinners are.

Amen.

That was my prayer just ten minutes ago. I am confident that my voice will be heard, as I am a messenger of the Gods.

Moving along, GPRO isn’t supposed to run up in a straight line, no stock is. Plenty of high beta names too to the bottle today. However, with a little time and patience, I believe we can achieve the century mark for GPRO. With regard to YELP, I said I’d buy it under $54 yesterday. I might just do that a little sooner than later.

I lost 1.7% today, without the help of being long JNUG. Remember kids, gold is a sandbox of retards.

I just heard a staggering statistic. The average price for a roach infested apartment in NYC is now $1.6 million, up 17% year over year. I don’t have numbers available to me, but real estate in Brooklyn is equally insane, with Brownstones selling for north of $3 million when they were literally $200k 15 years ago. All of the bastard hipsters want to live in Brooklyn. It’s so funny, seeing the gentrification of certain neighborhoods in Brooklyn. These same neighborhoods were death traps when I was a teenager, places where you’d go to get robbed and killed, tossed onto the tracks into an oncoming train. It’s amazing how ‘safe’ NYC has become over the past 20 years.

I know some of you hillbillies from flyover country doubt me (quit rolling your fucking eyes). But my fellow New Yorkers can attest to the fact that crime is a fraction of what is was back in the 90s. The net result of peace and prosperity has led to a monumental increase in NYC real estate prices, a true model for the savage ham and eggers cutting each others clavicles in the middled east.

That’s all we really need, don’t we? Give man an opportunity to thrive and he will do it, in both science and technology. We are living in memorable times and most of you take it for granted. Discard the notion that gold bars mean something to you. One thousand years hence, the history books will reflect back on the times we are living now and discuss the nascency of the internet–a time when singularity became reality. Man and machine coupled for the betterment of mankind. Information disseminated rapidly, shared globally, ushering in a new era of enlightenment.

You little trollops look at this blog post with a skeptical eye, thinking the world is over and society is nothing more than a helter skelter of bedraggled microbes. Believe you me, no one fights the negative wave of pessimism more than me. But you are wrong. These are incredible times and there will be fortunes to be made, from the modern day Vanderbilt empire called Uber to the Amazon hegemony, times are changing.

Now are you still looking to buy those fucking gold bricks, you cave man?

I don’t even like beards, yet I am growing one. I’ve surrounded myself with a lexicon of ideas, a rich history of winship, and an infallible track record of merciless victories. On this day, I announce to you, the pleb, that I, “The Fly”, grow a beard on my face for the benefit of my people inside of the stocked market. I do this, selflessly and without shame, so that you might profit.

Just know, I consider facial hair to be a reprehensible offense against civilized man. The fact that I’ve housed my razor blades in the cupboard to collect dust, instead of shaving cream, speaks volumes to the true nature of my very black heart.

My competitors prance about the internet, and on Twitter, clad in cheap regalia–a cacophony of offensive instruments meshed into a singular curse. These fish salesmen, these caitiffs, do not deserve an audience of your stature and distinguished sensibilities. Cast them back into the pits of hell they’ve derived from and actively seek out and expose others who aspire to fill their scandalous, treacherous stations.

Their foreboding commentary regarding the stock market shall be met with blows to their eyebrows and chest hairs–leaving garish scars as a testament to their sins.

HERETO, a great man of impeccable eminence has offered a facial sacrifice, which will undoubtedly lead to a concatenation of events that will leave you all for the better.

These words have been written on November the 18th, 7:29 est.

Amen.

The funny thing about some of you miscreants chanting about PE ratios is that you own gold miners too, who are bleeding out losses. I understand your desire for high growth stocks to have PEs less than 20. However, in the real world, that is a rare occasion because high growth is bought up. If you are lucky enough to buy high growth/quality at a discount, don’t be afraid to buy it. Otherwise, quit littering these fucking halls with your stupid warnings of hell to pay because you just finished reading Graham and Dodd and you think those rules should be applied to social media stocks who are literally changing the way human beings interact with one another. I don’t think Mr. Graham would approve of your perversion of fundamental analysis.

I bought YELP today, in decent size, knowing it might trade down. I reserved some cash from my TRN sale to average down in YELP. My next purchase will be below $54.

But know this: winners will always be bought and profitable to its investors. It’s only a matter of time before YELP goes full GPRO on the savages who short it.

Today’s melt up was brought to you by cheaper oil.

I bulked up on my YELP position. Significant add.

I sold out of TRN for a 5.5% loss. It was my second largest position. I am no longer interested in playing the oil reflation trade.