I am not going to try to find a bottom in crude. For all of you who are buying on the way down, I wish you luck. This isn’t like a stock that just missed earnings. Oil isn’t going to V-shape up. The major integrated oil companies are going to slash their capex budgets and the small players will be crushed because of it. Having said that, I am certain there is a violent upside bounce to be had somewhere. For me, I don’t feel like playing that game.
GPRO is trading sharply lower this morning, which is par for the course. It has morphed into a sickly stock, a regular Tiny Tim. Just a few weeks ago, it was a rock solid porn star, crushing the feeble skulls of those who bet against it. Now, geez, it’s just a paradiddle, easily crushed under the weight of weak sellers.
Instead of lamenting on my losers, which gets boring, let’s talk about the sea change that is taking place in fast food. MCD reported abysmal numbers this morning, which is a testament to how much America hates them. MCD, BKW, YUM and WEN are all on the way out, paving a path for new players like BWLD, CMG, HABT and PNRA.
To offer an analogy, HABT/Shake Shack and others of that ilk (high quality hamburger restaurant) are to MCD/BKW what Apple was to Compaq 10 years ago. MCD dominates the hamburger genre, but has lost its way. America is becoming a more health conscious society. You can easily see it in our consumption of soda vs water and cigarette use stats. The ascendency of WFM vs the bedraggled microbes at Pathmark and other ridiculous supermarkets is only the tip of the iceberg of what is coming.
Naturally, with any major shift in society, the move is incremental. Old schoolers will cling onto the past, bidding up MCD on any semblance of positive news. They will scoff at companies like HABT and Shake Shack as being ‘hyped’ or ‘overvalued’, point to lock up periods as a reason to hate the company–all noise. The bigger picture is market share shift and who will be the winners 5 years from now.
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ANET – are you still long? Do you believe this CSCO suit holds up? Its a great company with great networking products. Seems like a good longterm buy around these price points.
Sold weeks ago.
But i thought GPRO was planning to make drones?
So it’s funny to see me lose money. What comes around, goes around.
I take it back.
Take what back?
My mockery.
Cracker Barrel is the future…CBRL
companies like McDonald’s and Coke are so large though. If they’re smart enough to see it coming, they can buy the small companies before they take hold.
Much like Blockbuster should have bought Netflix. That’s how a giant ultimately falls. By being too stupid and stubborn to see change and let a small fish build an army.
BAS RSI is 12 a fucking 12; good god this is a good company. I will buy moar
I don’t eat MCD and generally consider it to be poison… However, one must consider the demographic trends in this country also. In so many words, poor people can’t afford PNRA, HABT or BWLD (ain’t no dollah menu).
This. I just had a conversation the other day with some folks who insisted that Five Guys, HABT, PNRA, etc were “too expensive”. These people refuse to spend more than $5 on lunch.
I’m serious. $5.
Well, the lines inside those stores tell a different story.
Yes, but you can get a full tray of food for $5 at WEN, BKW and MCD. For average joe, PNRA is not an everyday option.
Ironically, I got a buy 1 big mac get 1 free coupon this past week and went to redeem it sat. It cost like $4.35 and I said I had the coupon and they said that IS with the coupon. The dollar menu is mythology.
Poor people do not drive consumer discretionary stocks.
So what does that say about the miss at MCD?
LMAO
awesome post — kudos for the macro analysis that is right on
Eventually crude will bottom. Probably not today. Or this week. Or even this month. There’s always time to bottom feed. This might not be a good time, though I have been adding drips of small cap E&P preferreds (SDRXP, GDP-C, CPE-A and MHR-C/D). Small enough that going to zero won’t hurt.
Boss Fly you are right on the mark with this post, this is how I look at the market too. Buying overhyped market darlings and falling knives are both acts of colossal egos and generally lead to similarily sized losses. I know because I’ve done it, but not in a while and never, ever again.
I would rather eat my shoe than any of the poison MCD manufactures.
$CLR getting ugly. CEO getting double jacked, first by the billion dollar divorce settlement, then by the hedges he bought back, lol
$CLR is the new double inverse crude oil ETF
CLR covered all of their hedges last month.
On another note, $YUM is killing it outside the united stakes. Its like the people in Europe have never seen/had fried chicken before. I was amazed at the lines at KFC
I would suggest not going out to eat. Make a sandwich at home. Eat some veggies. Anything that is considered fast food can’t be good for you. That said, MCD is disgusting and agree that these other joints will eventually kick it’s ass. MCD is another behemoth that can’t get out of it’s own way. It takes a lot of time before they finally fail.
Who could have possibly seen this coming? GPRO http://www.bigskyinvestments.com/blog/certainty
my screen: tasr, gpro, bwld, twtr. LOL
have you sold LITB?
PNRA is god-awful crap masquerading as fresh food. What makes the HABT burger superior to Burger King? They both char-broil scrawny meat patties. The new chains have done a great marketing job… offer a few salads and they become healthy food joints. Americans are idiotd when it comes to food choices so HABT and such will likely do very well.
+++++1