iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,436 Blog Posts

Charts Lie, But Numbers Don’t

Let’s settle this bear v bull market debate once and for all, shall we?

Year to date, 1,492 stocks are up more than 10%, while 1,567 are down more than 10%.

Going to the extremes, 391 stocks are up more than 40% this year, while an astounding 557 are down more than 40%.

Bear in mind, there are 4,271 equities in The PPT database. As such, that means that more than 13% of all stocks are down 40% or more.

Bull market? Really?

The PPT algos came close to an OVERSOLD signal yesterday–but no dice. One thing I’ve witnessed with the algos, since they adjust on their own with time (I designed them that way) is a widening of the ranges. Meaning: the oversold signal used to get triggered at 2.45ish, almost like clockwork. For those of you who are unfamiliar, The PPT grades stocks on a 1-5 scale, with 5 being strongest. In the past, when the overall score hit 2.45, it would trigger a systemwide OVERSOLD signal with amazing accuracy. Over the past three months, that range has been lowered to 2.38, and over the past twelve 2.43.

I think it’s pretty obvious that the market’s worse days are more extreme than its best, and I’m not talking about the Dow Jones.

Oil stocks like WRES, EOX and SN embody the entrepreneurial spirit of the industry, whose share prices, up until recently, have done very well. One hundred dollar crude spelled success and growth, $65 crude not-so-much.

SN has gone from $38 to $10, WRES $6.5 to $1.90 and EOX $8.5 to $1.50.

Now here is the interesting question, one that I answered back in 2010 when I bought a few million shares of FTK at $1, sold around $4ish, only to see it go to $30: will oil stabilize around these levels and will those three companies that I mentioned above get their financing in line long enough to weather this storm? Moreover, will the price of crude trade back to $100 next year, resulting in 300-500% one year returns for those stocks?

These questions will keep me up at night, God damn it.

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23 comments

  1. jules

    FIG

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  2. johnrotten

    AAPL weak in Pre-market. Sucks

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  3. Dr. Fly

    Our Income Investment Report is being offered for free. Check it out. Feedback is wanted.

    https://ibankcoin.com/iir/features/

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  4. zuul

    We need a grande war.

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  5. longview

    Don’t have a crystal ball? The future is bright — if you choose great!

    Sincerely,

    Dentegra

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  6. j

    Hi Fly

    I’m not optimistic on oil going back to 100 bucks. Blame the Saudis. The greedy fucks let it go to a level that would induce crazy amounts of tech innovation and search. They unleashed a tiger. Add in the fact that the US has a universe of gas, we’ll eventually see oil and gas trade at roughly the equivalent levels of BTU.

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  7. freebie

    Leveraged SPY rules – keep it simple with SSO for the long haul

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  8. traderconfessions

    Oil will go back to 100 bucks when Goldman Sachs and hedge funds want it to.

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  9. UncleBuccs

    This%20is%20a%20great%20post

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  10. MAXIMUS

    This has driven me to finally execute what Emperor Marcus Aurelius has wanted for the past 8 years, a laddered muni and corporate bond portfolio. Rome has surrendered….for the time being

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    • zheeeem

      I’ve done that – slowly over the past 3 years. As the market has gone up I’ve reinvested profits in munis, with a couple corporates. It let me retire.

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  11. budh

    The bull v. bear debate is now settled for all times.

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  12. zheeeem

    So far this year, every time I’ve bought something that’s allegedly oversold I’ve been clubbed like a baby seal.

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  13. smartestone

    SPY DIA QQQ XLV only things that have worked this year

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  14. jdf

    It’s neither. It’s just a pure shit market. As with all shit storms, you will get hit with some and dodge other giant blobs. Good luck and wear protective clothing.

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  15. bruce keller

    Got a bunch of EOX for the giggles.

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  16. Adabese

    When I get out of prison, the first thing I’m going to do is get on $TRUE’s website and buy a car for the best possible price.

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  17. btts

    So fly, had enough ? Ir are u gonna buy more gpro and yelp?

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