Let’s settle this bear v bull market debate once and for all, shall we?
Year to date, 1,492 stocks are up more than 10%, while 1,567 are down more than 10%.
Going to the extremes, 391 stocks are up more than 40% this year, while an astounding 557 are down more than 40%.
Bear in mind, there are 4,271 equities in The PPT database. As such, that means that more than 13% of all stocks are down 40% or more.
Bull market? Really?
The PPT algos came close to an OVERSOLD signal yesterday–but no dice. One thing I’ve witnessed with the algos, since they adjust on their own with time (I designed them that way) is a widening of the ranges. Meaning: the oversold signal used to get triggered at 2.45ish, almost like clockwork. For those of you who are unfamiliar, The PPT grades stocks on a 1-5 scale, with 5 being strongest. In the past, when the overall score hit 2.45, it would trigger a systemwide OVERSOLD signal with amazing accuracy. Over the past three months, that range has been lowered to 2.38, and over the past twelve 2.43.
I think it’s pretty obvious that the market’s worse days are more extreme than its best, and I’m not talking about the Dow Jones.
Oil stocks like WRES, EOX and SN embody the entrepreneurial spirit of the industry, whose share prices, up until recently, have done very well. One hundred dollar crude spelled success and growth, $65 crude not-so-much.
SN has gone from $38 to $10, WRES $6.5 to $1.90 and EOX $8.5 to $1.50.
Now here is the interesting question, one that I answered back in 2010 when I bought a few million shares of FTK at $1, sold around $4ish, only to see it go to $30: will oil stabilize around these levels and will those three companies that I mentioned above get their financing in line long enough to weather this storm? Moreover, will the price of crude trade back to $100 next year, resulting in 300-500% one year returns for those stocks?
These questions will keep me up at night, God damn it.If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter