I heard a stat that said for every penny decline in gasoline, the US consumer will save $1.1 billion dollars. With oil careening through the floor boards, ask yourselves, where will this money go? I had this same conversation with Jeff Macke, who will also be in attendance for the 1st Annual iBankCoin Investors conference, and he agrees that retail should enjoy a tailwind here–especially casual dining. If you didn’t know, Jeff’s father used to head up Target back in the day.
The problem with retail is that it’s filled with retailers. All of these stores are undercutting one another, making it hard to realize eps growth. Only a select few know how to sell product, like JWN, M and TJX. WSM is also a decent play. In casual dining, PNRA, CMG and ZOES look good. We can only pray to the Gods for a Shake Shack ipo, sooner rather than later.
Look, GPRO is where it’s at. I know you haven’t come to grips with it yet and you despise the stock because it goes up so much. But, heading into our beloved pagan holidays, there are only a handful of items that will make it onto Santa Claus’ wish list.
1. Apple products
2. GoPro cameras
3. Video games
So, my question to you is this: how are you preparing for the holiday shopping season, now that October is out of the way and The Turkey Gods beckon?
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Oil wants 76 King Dollars.
The consumer should take each of those pennies and buy straddles on SPY when it hits 205.. we are either crashing from there or blowing the top off of this donkey.
Not straddles, I’m an idiot… Buy out of the money puts and out of the money calls when SPY hits 204.. whatever the hell that is.
And nice win on GPRO btw…
LOFL!
The ‘Fly’ should henceforth be addressed as ‘The mad Count’… Is that clip at 0:37 from the NYC blackout of 1977?
Fly – What about automotive plays? Are we saving enough to buy new cars now pusing the prices of Ford, GM, etc higher?
Love auto plays. Good point.
I am long HAR.
I have trouble with retail.. how about LULU?
LULU is being assaulted on many fronts. I don’t like it.
I suspect a Fly favorite, WFM, will likely also do a bit better in a low fuel environment. Although given target audiences, middle/upper class, not sure how much it matters…
This old Macke video cracks me up:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79HLnTPxMho
Thanks Fly.
I don’t know about you guys, but I’m getting a Phablet!
NDLS PBPB and LOCO ftw
NO WAY ON NDLS AND PBPB
Why not? Charts look ready to pop. Not suggesting long term investment.