I will be making some minor adjustments to my long term portfolio, which is listed–in full–inside The PPT. A few broad strokes: I am reducing tech, reducing basic materials, reducing healthcare, reducing industrials, upping finance, upping utilities, upping staples.
I know that sounds somewhat bearish–but it’s not. I am simply overweight those industries and need to adjust the weightings. Part of the reason is outperformance in some of my holdings, like GILD, PANW, N and JAZZ.
But, make no mistake (extra Bush), there is a new reality on the ground, one of cheaper fuel prices, which disproportionately helps certain industries, while being punitive to others. Going down the stretch, in a year that has been punishing for me, I am not interested in tossing hail marys, in order to bolster my pride. The fact of the matter is, the losses I incurred are behind me and I am not managing to redeem myself, but to do the best possible job with the market that is in front of me.
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Since it’s been such a turbulent year Fly, would you mind sharing with us your YTD loss?
Also, still holding CLR? Any views on natty, in particular COG? Thanks!
CLR is my 2nd largest holding, next to TRN.
I am down 17% ytd.
Market in front of you is probably about to get very bearish. I guess you’re making the right moves now. Short term there’s absolutely no reasons to be in tech. Probably should short it too. Or stay away. On a side note a big short term move down in oil is difficult to explain on the supply side. It is pretty likely the demand side is in play. And the way the market bounce is very unhealthy, it looks like a bear market bounce to me even though we’re supposed to be in a bull market.
Super
I disagree. There are plenty of tech stocks with great prospects. It’s hard to make a bear case, frankly. I am adjusting for weightings, not so much risk.
I don’t doubt there are great tech stocks, but the nasdaq in general will consolidate at best here. There’s no way a breakout that soon could be sustained. If you take the time to look at :
-Junk bonds (weak, stable at best)
-European markets (horrendous charts)
-Inflation expectations (crashing)
-Oil, energy, debt of energy names, awful.
-The overall massively overbought conditions in the short term (McClellan for example)
-The massive bear hunt of last couple days, IWM, any trashy stock up massively yesterday.
-The fact that the last selloff was the deepest, and worst in the last 3 years and we’re already back to all time high and everyone is happy again.
If you can’t make a good bear case with that, with technicals that also make sense for a drop, then I don’t know… I guess I’m not looking at fundamentals.
Blackberry CEO Chen on ‘what we need to do’?
“well, we need to make money”
Great idea sir, great idea.
Good Morning, Fly…have you put any hedges against your GPRO long?
Thanks
nope
Love the idea of sector reallocation. Two quick questions, where in the PPT can I find this? Also, is this for personal or managed accounts? Thanks for the insight and updates.
AC/DC’s “Big Balls” is playing in my head for some reason..good luck to both of us then
Inspired me ya did:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJ3tqIukBKg
A true classic…nice..
Long natgas and short gold into the end of the year…
those consumer staples never go down it seems