Never panic after a big sell off.
Quit betting on crash scenarios, for they are as rare as intelligent Presidents.
Never, ever, short into the hole and do not dare buy VIX instrument ETNs after a sell off.
There are some things that never change in the the market. The seasons change and so do the players; but the rules remains intact. Ultimately, you and I are simply transferring fear and greed back to one another. One of us will be right, the other miserable. Temper your emotions and know that you know nothing (extra Jon Snow). After coming to grips with the fact that you aren’t God’s special creature placed on this planet for the sole purposes of self-aggrandizement, you will become a better investor.
We just had a very sharp oversold bounce. Euphoria is high and greed is trending. Look to raise cash tomorrow and prepare for the possibility that we might retest the lows. At the very least, we will test the hands of the newly minted geniuses to see if they are up to the task of holding during periods of duress. After the next flush out, I believe we might have a straight shot through Thanksgiving.
Look at what you’ve done. Don’t say I didn’t try to warn you.
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Quit betting on crash scenarios, for they are as rare as intelligent Presidents.
Great line. Wish I learned this sooner.
awesome wisdom again Dr. Fly. Thank you.
GPRO is back!
IT NEVER LEFT
Word
znga and gpro leading the rally
aapl faded
seems legit
i exited VXX puts. didn’t want to overstay my welcome.
the VIX gorilla ultimately attacks everyone.
“for they are as rare as intelligent Presidents”
When was the last one, Eisenhower?
Nothin’ but retards lately.
Eisenhower was a fool. Kennedy and Clinton were the last of a dying breed.
That’s funny. You said Clinton.
Eisenhower and Kennedy yah. Give ’em an 8 on a 1-10 scale. Clinton……..Meh….
He rode in just when the www was starting to ignite the economy so got credit where little was due. Singlehandedly set us up for 9-11 by waffling on Al Queerda.
Make that double Meh,,,
Maybe give him a 3. ‘Cept he did get the intern under the desk………..so make it a 4.
This is an absurdly ignorant reply.
What makes you think we retest? You see, I’ll tell you the truth. Janet Yellen has set us on the “golden path” through her Kwisatz Haderach-like forecasting powers. She sees the world decades out, and we (the US) are winning.
The truth is we’ve entered a period of a renewed “great moderation.” We’ll see moderate growth and low inflation for the conceivable future. Jobs will come back to America as the countries around us crumble. The foundries of Detroit will start pumping again. Real Estate will appreciate, and there will be JUMBO and Alt-A mortgages for all, even the sub-700 buyers.
What lesson? I am covering vxx tomorrow and load up the truck on vxx again…
Leadingggggg to a crash. Yes
This week. No
Come on, son. Get a grip.
UIS kills it! A good day for sure
Retest the lows? Like you said I believe only God would be able to predict that. The bounces hasn’t stopped at any resistance so far. Barely any attempts. Are the sellers showing any kind of strength anywhere? Not really… So, let’s just listen and not fight. I don’t know if you’ve studied previous 3 serious market bottoms, after such a bounce we never went to retest. What’s different this time? At this point, we can go back to ignoring indexes, the fun is over. It’ll be back, maybe soon, maybe late, who knows really.
I said “might”
Sethster added to his UVXY at the close yesterday … LOL!!!
I confess to having dabbled with a VIX spread near lows, small loss. Bigger loss (relatively) was puking up all that good stuff that’s now back .. GPRO & friends. How the hell can you learn this game? The other day the world was ending, needed the cash to buy canned food and ammo. Now it’s all rainbows and unicorns again. WTF???
It was a bull market correction. Next time you will not get fooled hopefully. I bought during the panic and although I sold stuff too soon I’m still holding a couple things.
I went long UVXY today. I suspect we see a violent reversal before the end of the week. How in the world aren’t you concerned about the fed ending QE by the end of the month? Next friday the bull party is officially over Sir Fly.
You are ridiculous, who are you to say market should be concerned about end of QE? Are you smarter than everybody? This bounce is as strong as it gets. Sellers can’t even fight a bit at any resistances. Tech is raging back, biotech all time high, rates at lows, earnings decent, and buybacks keep going. Stop making grand predictions and losing money.
compare and contrast the volume of the sell off and the bounce and you can see that the bounce is not as strong as it gets. Am I smarter than everybody? Nah, just bulls.
Now you are shining my shoes. See how that works?
Then short something, even buy TZA–but NEVER UVXY.
It’s high risk but I made a mint on the last thrust down so I’m giving it another shot as a trade. This thing spikes outta control like 50% in a sell off..
It’s fucking stupid and stupid is just stupid.
Learn the market first, then come here to lecture space alien magicians.
with all due respect weren’t you long VXX during the flash crash and bank a sizable pile of coin?
Yes and I got lucky.
I leave it to the experts to interpret whether it means anything.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-21/vix-has-never-done-ever
B/c the end of QE has been telegraphed for months and volume on panic selloffs *is* always higher than up days you moron.
We shall see.
Cocaine is a helluva drug.
Even Einhorn bought the recent dip. Many money managers gonna be chasing into year end.
Awesome Post. ++++
I buy during selloffs. Retesting lows would be OK, because I didn’t spend all my cash. Fly is king!
We don’t retest. Janet Yellen has set us on the “golden path” through her Kwisatz Haderach-like forecasting powers. She sees the world decades out, and we (the US) are winning.
We’ve entered a period of a renewed “great moderation.” We’ll see moderate growth and low inflation for the conceivable future. Jobs will come back to America as the countries around us crumble. The foundries of Detroit will start pumping again. Real Estate will appreciate, and there will be JUMBO and Alt-A mortgages for all, even the sub-700 buyers.
I’m up 10% in the past 2 days which brings me just above where I was 2 weeks ago.
Amusing Banter!
Why did no one get the Game of Thrones reference…epic!
XIV and ZIV, inverse VIX ETN’s, are great plays after a sell off. Plenty of liquidity in XIV too.
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In my humble opinion …
the Trinity Industries “guardrail shitstorm” is just gettin’ cranked up !!!
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Now that the Feds have had their day in court …
BRING ON THE CIVIL LAWSUITS !!!
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It’s a whistleblower lawsuit. 100% rubbish.
Stick to your day job, attorney.
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… hardly “rubbish” !!!
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… they misled the FEDS to save $2.00 per rail !!!
In so doing people were killed !!!
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I can assure you … the FEDS don’t view this as “rubbish” !
AND, get ready for the next wave of wrongful death lawsuits !
They’re coming !!!
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If the Feds thought it was anything other than a horseshit, greedy, wihistleblower, they’d join the suit. But they didn’t.
Moreover, this was a Texas jury, who are renowned for being complete ignoramuses and almost ALWAYS side in favor of the attacking attorney–mostly because people from Texas are overweight slobs.
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The suit was filed (by the “whistleblower”) under the False Claims Act !
The so-called “whistleblower” filed the goddamned lawsuit ON BEHALF of the Federal Government !!!
The FEDS didn’t NEED to “join” the lawsuit !!! LOL
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FUNNY SHIT !!!
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THATS HOW ALL WHISTLE BLOWER SUITS WORK.
Firmly INSERT foot in mouth.
You sir, are a caitiff.
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… “ignoramuses” ?
… “overweight slobs” ?
REALLY, SIR …
I thought you were better than that !
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You can’t hide from the truth…son (extra drawl).
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… meaning numerous future Wrongful Death and Personal Injury claims !!!
Wait for them … you KNOW they’re coming !!!
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It’s 100% garbage. Do you even know what a whistleblower suit is?
Go look and then comeback, you liberal hack.
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… NO !!!!
YOU go look !!!
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With All Due Respect !!!
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And, yes, if the Feds thought the case had merit, they’d join.
enough of this childish nonsense. Be a man for the first time in your life and short the stock.
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… “merit” ???
SERIOUSLY ???
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David Boies and his law firm would NEVER have taken this case on if it didn’t have “merit” !!!
They tried the case … They WON the case … They were AWARDED a judgement in the case !!!
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“Merit” ???
Sheesh !!!
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… whatever, I wish you the best with your TRN position !
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The Wrongful Death & Personal Injury attorneys are coming !!!
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Like Stink On Shit !!!
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Perfidy of epic proportions !!
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… put your Funk and Wagnall back on the shelf shithead !
Nobody is the least bit impressed !!!
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lol@”back on the shelf shithead”
Said he with a mouth full of tabakey (extra hick).
@LeFly BDI is rocking again. Check out the move in shippers today. Interested in playing them again? Do you still consider BALT the best play?
DRYS DSX NM FREE
BDI is still in the gutter. I’d be careful about chasing.
BDI is most definitely slumping..so why the move in shippers?? BALT almost 16% yesterday
Dr. Fly, if you aren’t too busy running your empire, could you do another of the animated Fly movies? I get a kick out of the guy doing your voice.
long UVXY? insert foot into mouth