TLT is up 5 fucking dollars.
Yen is up 1.5%
The Dow is off by 2%.
This is a wholesale panic. Stocks are careening lower. Whatever can go wrong is going wrong. From the Abbie-Shire deal, to oil, to Greece, to Ebola, to bonds, to semis, to ISIS-EVERYTHING.
It’s amazing how sentiment can shift in such a short period of time.
All of the people who were saying rates were going higher should now impose a lifetime ban on talking. You were wrong and should pay for your sins.
Having said that, these are the sort of days where bounces are born. People are capitulating and the pain is extreme. Once we flush, things will get better. Bank on that.
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Another few minutes and SMH etf may be +.
MU,TXN,BRCM, etc. were dumped by drunken TradeBots.
Yay!! Can I deploy my cash now??
Well, we got to -369 on the Dow. Maybe that will be close enough to my -500 call to truly wash out this market.
My UVXY is up another 10% yawn. I need MOAR!
Congrats on your UVXY win. You were 100% right. Being a veteran of the VIX trade, I can tell you it’s a rare occasion to nail that trade.
Thanks Fly. There is further downside. We will get a nice bounce, but I am holding.
I unfortunately am trading it in my IRA, so I have to wait 3 days for the settle, and can’t take the risk of missing out on the huge move down the line.
My basis is a tad under $30, so I am not worried right now.
Holding UVXY, sounds like a mistake. Nice trade for sure, but it should be a trading instrument.
Yeah I agree. It’s a difficult to watch this thing go up 20% then down 10% then up again. I really wish I could trade in and out of it. Today would have been a great time to sell and buy back. I would do it if I owned it in my regular account.
Really, the only reason I’m using it is that it’s IRA money.
Anyway, the reason why it’s fine to hold this as an “investment” is that VIX futes are in backwardation. As long as the futures stay in backwardation, I see no problem holding it.
You can violate the 3 day hold rule and simply catch a free-riding warning. You get 3 of those per annum.
UVXY will get crushed today.
The Russell 2000 predicted the decline and the action of the Russell 2000 the last few days (and today) is going to lead a sharp rebound.
TC – Russell action looking good…
Helpful to any bulls out there would be another flush with the Russell basically holding steady or down not as much.
This would clean out the rebounders and “hopesters” (sic.) for sure.
Nice rebound. Great shorting opportunity here and into tomorrow.
What the fuck just happened? And I don’t quite get this panic’s rhythm.,
Last panics the Yen strengthened against everything. The Dollar strengthened against the Euro. This time around the Euro is bidding higher against the dollar.
If markets go green. Just wow.
Got down to -9% on the SPX at today’s low of 1837. If everyone is thinking it will go down 10% then it probably won’t. Either it will stop short or go way past 10%.
Hit my target down on the nose. Now long. Could retest.
we have breached 1850…now we can plan for a bounce to 1890-1900
Longs are getting their asses handed to them.
Can you dig it?
Can you dig it?
Caaaaaan yooouu dig it???
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-OYKd8SVrI
Just a thought.
Since the drop in the price of oil is being done for geopolitical purposes, I don’t see the Fed stepping in to launch another round of QE so quickly. If their intent is to go as low as $40-$50 per barrel, then they will allow it to happen and the Fed will stand on the sidelines.
The Fed may jawbone, like they’ve done recently (with no movement in the oil price), but we will have to wait a while for action.
The plans are likely in place for a Republican led government anyway so perhaps making things bad for the masses works within that plan up until at least the elections.
What happend at the open:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F23GG58eL2I
final bottom can be around 1750 but enjoying the bounce will be fun to watch
PPT
Market is only down 100 points. Did I miss something at the open??
Seems like a very short lived panic, Fly. More downside to come today.
TNX…
Back in the hayday you would be rubbing VXX all over your chest at this point. Not that I blame you for not, that thing is a massive POS.
I assume BALT’s fleet runs on oil? Good in long run?
SA has BALT being gobbled up by GENCO ..for what its worth
Mr. Fly,
First, your TLT pick has worked wonderfully for my TLT calls……thank you, you are a true gentleman.
On a separate note, i noticed that you are bearish Gold, and i get what you are saying. How about gold miners? In a convoluted way, they benefit greatly from a lower oil price (being the #1 incremental input cost)……..as long as gold doesn’t fall too far. thoughts?
Thanks again.
Gold does poorly in deflation
tits&arse TNA is actually up on the day. How about that.
Bought some SBUX, KMI, FLY and CQP. Then the dopey market started going back up. Sigh. But it was nice for a couple minutes, there.
I thought today might be capitulation day… until I saw the “Capitulation?…” headline on Yahoo Finance!
+1
Need a strong close or it all means nothing for the Bulls.
EBOLA has infected the market!!