I HAVE GOOD NEWS FOR BOTTOM FISHERS

I went to take a quick gander (nothing too special or time consuming) at previous market slides. Since I believe we are repeating 2000, I took a look at some dot bomb stocks, like JDSU, to get an idea of what we may be in store for. I also took a look at some of the March-May losers of earlier this year, peak to trough, just to get a sense, mind you, of what a person, such as yourself, might be facing.

The results are in.

During the majority of peak to trough ‘situations’, stocks fell no more or less than 70% over a 3 month period. Typically on the 4th month the gimp comes out from the cage and really gives it to the bears. This go around, it appears the damage is being afflicted to energy shares. This might pose a minor problem for you repeat fans out there. Unlike the dot coms and bubble stocks of 2014, the oil stocks have significant earnings power, cash, and assets. I suppose for the sake of clarity, we can forget all of that shit and simply imagine the fires to come.

Doubly unfortunately, even during the kick ass end of western finance days of 2008, the oils never really came down too hard. This is with crude ‘coming in’ (lolz) from $145 to $36. Shares of CXO only dipped a mere  38% during september and october of ’08. At the present, CXO is already down 23% from last month. So, clearly, we have a problem here, as there isn’t a credit crisis or plunging oil price to speak of. I mean, oil has come down, but nothing like it did in ’08.

Making the case for -70% returns in 2014, at least for the oil stocks, is a really hard one. We’d need something spectacular to occur. But even if that did happen, these bastard companies have more money than God and would simply buy up their own shares, whilst sipping on Long Island Iced Teas (fucking bastards).

In summary, if this is 2000 all over again, expect your favorite high beta stocks to decline by 70%. Most of them are already down a cool 35%, so you only have another 35 to go. As for the oils, I’m afraid, and I deeply apologize for this, their downside is somewhat limited from here. The nefarious price action is probably a result of strong headed hedge fund managers playing the stock market game wrong, on margin. Now they’re crying, shitting the bed, and generally getting flushed out of the ballpark.