Let’s be honest here: the market is boring when it goes up everyday. There is nothing like tuning into bbg radio, while driving in the car, hearing stories of panic and calamity. The end of the world scenarios playing out make for top shelf drama. We all know how the story ends, though, right? All of you malcontent beer swillers, salivating over SPY futures down 13, eventually, will be bankrupted and discarded along the side of the road, for the garbage men to scoop up.
Thanks to President Obama and President Obama only, ebola is in America. There is no one else to blame but him, frankly. Flights should have been shut down and Liberia quarantined. Instead, we have a national panic and this is lending to the negative sentiment.
ISIS is now within 15 miles of the Iraqi airport. We are quickly approaching the last helicopter leaving the american embassy in Vietnam moment there. When it happens, and assuredly it will, there is no doubt it will be a national disgrace.
The oil trade is broken to pieces and deflation is back (extra Hugh Hendry).
In my experience, markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Just because we have tanked, that doesn’t mean we should rally. I invite you to manage your affairs and account for another 20% lower in your holdings to properly stress test your accounts.
This is the way I see it: I have about 40% of my assets in a defensive posture. I am willing to lose money on the other 60% because, eventually, I will take that staid money and toss it into the sweet fires of risk, when “that moment” arrives. I will make all of the money back, and more. But before that happens, there will be small rallies and rumors of bigger ones. Ultimately, this is a seasonal thing, the side effect of a corrupt and utterly inept Federal Reserve Chief. Janet Yellen, seltzer drinking moron from Brooklyn, is in far over her head and I am afraid we might need to endure a substantial pullback before she comes to grips with the indelible fact that QE is for life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvclxOKoAug
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I am 25% long, 75% cash….now down 4% on the year after last weeks summary execution.
The market doesn’t feel like it wants to rally yet….but earnings is the x-factor. Can earnings jump start this market?
I dunno…i think we are repricing risk in general and will settle at a lower elevation.
Is it time to start shorting big rallies instead of trying to jump on the bandwagon?
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/10/12/oil-saudi-policy-idUKL2N0S70J720141012
Any thoughts on Saudi Arabia potentially accepting lower oil prices?
Yes the Saudis are trying to force prices lower to stop American Frack production. The mid 70’s should do it.
Why would our good friends, the Saudis, the ones who demolished the Twin Towers free of charge so that we could build better buildings, why would they try to bankrupt our oil industry?!!!
Maybe Janet is crashing oil to kill RSX. Russian current account / GDP is a mess. If we crash oil / manipulate the US Dollar, Russia is screwed over more. In turn our exports are more expensive and may hurt our businesses. So why? Well, we need a an excuse for QE 4. Janet knows interest rates aren’t going higher. Not with Nobama in office. Who knows, these are just my outlandish thoughts. Long UUP / VIX calls. Looking to load puts on QQQ into rips, as well as get long XLU and TLT for hedge. 68% cash. I may take stabs on the Ebola / Cyber hype tho. Nice post Fly.
Our exports? What exports? Look around your house. How many things there were marked Made in USA when you bought them?
my iPhone 6+ im typing with now. We are a services exporter. this is still the united states of fucking america man. the best place to live, no matter if idiots run the country. If anything, you just made my argument stronger for crashing oil / manipulating the dollar.
Great post. “(M)arkets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” Recommend that as the slogan for a bearish/seasonal iBC t-shirt. I’m in for an XL and a M.
The rally will be forged in the fires of middle earth, amidst scores of plebs dead from bad timing.
100% agree. Winter is coming. Randomly ended up mostly all cash during this downturn. I was serious about the shirt, though – would Paypal that shit in a minute.
They will be bankrupt with oil prices at this level! Unlike US of A, they don`t collect tax to pay for their extravagant lifestyle! They sell oil and their budget is based on oil being above $90! Russians are even worse, oil should be above $100!
Positive side here is Saudis, Qataris and Emiratis may run out of oil money so ISIS calms down for a while and people in West get a chance to get their shit together!
There is a lack of real fear so it’s the down elevator for a spell. I like your strategy, Dr. Fly, good hunting.
Lack of real fear? CNN Money Fear & Greed index is at 1 out of 100. lol
I don’t really follow this though. Just saw it tweeted by someone.
http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
Are you daring to challenge my status as an expert? The hoi polloi aren’t chattering about a crash, at least the polloies I know.
Yes, we must go with the real experts, on the market and everything else, CNN, LOL. CNN IS the hoi polloi.
The markets can remain irrational long than I can remain sober?
One must know that the markets are not irrational at all. In fact, the downturns inherently are those in the know making money off of those that have become irrational. Funny thing is, the irrational ones then take things lower than they need be, and things must revert to the mean.
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… that is actually remarkably coherent !
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Oil at a 20% discount would stimulate global growth which in turn would increase oil prices.
Since increased growth would increase demand. But this is all a conspiracy Zerohedge 2.0.
The world runs on oil, not Dunkin’
Watch the ebola infected count during the next ten weeks……
If we get to about 4-500 by New Years that means it is doubling every week and it’s time to go into “full prepper” mode.
Sell everything you hold, buy food, water, guns and ammo and retreat to an isolated spot. ,,,,,,,,(you do have sych a spot and plan don’t you?) Hunker down and stay away from people while the first horseman of the apocalypse runs his course.
I am putting mine together tonight….bout to spend another 1% of my port on survival gear.
Folks on the east coast are dead….we will survive.
Prez ‘Ebola’ couldn’t care less, as long as shit hits the fan AFTER election day; just look how he kept shit off the radar before his re-election last time. M. Savage is 100% correct. I’m not a big Republican fan, but I hope the Repubs SWEEP the Senate and House and make some needed changes – and FAST!
“Thanks to President Obama and President Obama only, ebola is in America. There is no one else to blame but him, frankly. Flights should have been shut down and Liberia quarantined.”
But shutting down flights is so un-PC!!!
It does offer a perfect illustration though of why and how all the PG bullshit will kill us in the end.
Fly, I was actually about to post about oil being reflective of the world economy too. However, I still it all ties directly into QE. QE was essentially a constant bid on trend lines that algs were following, and without that, we go down, and I bet those algs were betting on oil too… because a lot of our economy is oil based too.
Agreed.
Last two times we ended QE is resulted in 16% and 19% market routs.
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“Flights should have been shut down and Liberia quarantined.”
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If you shut down flights in and out of Liberia … you ALSO shut down the ability of health care professionals to freely travel there and treat victims in an attempt to isolate the disease.
You then increase the risk of the disease spreading to adjacent countries … and then … BEYOND !
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Think about it !!!
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ROFL
Jesus Christ that is warped thinking.
Primary concern for US leader is to tend to and protect HIS people, not the people of plague stricken countries. We can send them supplies and help them with scientists, but in no way should commercial flights be permitted to travel to the US from those nations.
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“in no way should commercial flights be permitted to travel to the US from those nations.”
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The “now deceased victim” in Dallas flew from “Belgium” to Dallas !!!
NOT LIBERIA !!!
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Should we look at the protocol in and out of Liberia ?
YES !
That is NOT the same as some demand to “shut down ALL flights in and out of Liberia !
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Ebola and Bible prophecy:
http://www.raptureready.com/featured/gillette/bg60.html
Funny, they shut down flights to Israel two months ago in a FLASH… Wonder why he did that???
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Never ceases to amaze me at how people are so quick to “shoot their mouth off” about things they obviously have NO CLUE about !
Be thankful we have people willing to travel there and face this disease “head on” … and put their life on the line for mankind !
A bravery and commitment beyond anything I can imagine !
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Some problems do remain isolated and not get over to where we live. But some problems– including contagious diseases– you don’t know where they’re going to stop. Just attempting to isolate your country from them is not likely to be an effective strategy. Something this serious could end up like those zombie movies, if countries with quickly muiitplying hordes of sick people are left to their own devices.
Those who volunteer to work on treating, containing, and developing a cure for these disease are indeed brave and wonderful heroes.
I happen to completely agree with you Alf!
“Never ceases to amaze me at how people are so quick to “shoot their mouth off” about things they obviously have NO CLUE about !”
You mean like good chewing tobacco?
The SPX and Naz are broken. Look out below…by the way, ignore the oversold readings. In bad markets like now, it says “oversold” for longer than most can bear (pun intended).
Guess I’ll sell everything tomorrow.
I dunno, looks like SPX could bounce to 1955ish the next week before it retests this level a 3rd time, IMO.
Guess not today!
GPRO to zero. Time to short the shoe shine boy.
Almost 10% down already
Obama. Was “their” guy
I don’t care to convince anyone I don’t give a shit
Contrary to belief my thought process evolves
I was an 08 obama voter. to skeptic. anti-obama. Understanding obama. acceptant-obama
He is not the evil mastermind opponents claim. He is not the perfect leader followers claim. He is a puzzle piece. Part of their puzzle
WAY (WAY) too many strange/conflicting/suspicious/coincidental/questionable things the last 5 years. Pal, it adds up.
Action on ebola? How about addition to Bush Sars executive order “For generic respiratory illness”. Ready? 2.5 months ago. If action then but not now, Is not strange to you, I have a bridge to sell
Yep, Market has been SO irrational ever since it broke over 1755 SPX. Nov/Dec 2013 should have been the top, but we just kept going up?
What happened to Jake Gint? (is he buying gold now)? Mr. P still around? Alf is back (hello Alf), Mayonnaise what neighborhood was that (sounds so familar) ? sorry for all the ?’s
It’s been a long time.
If Liberals shut down flights it would run counter their ‘open border’ policy to recruit new Dem voters wouldn’t it? Michael Savage is 100% spot on here.
You forgot to mention Ukraine.
(And, of course, there are no direct flights from Liberia, Guinea or Sierra Leone to the US. So by all means Obama should ban them all!!!!)
Al Swearengen for Fukin Senate!
Holy crap!
Don’t shut down flights from Liberia…that’s wasteful, when you could instead reroute to Syria & solve two problems. Think of the children.
+1
Need help?
Don’t YELP.
The optimists are looking at the reversal they deserve. I am talking to myself because most of them are away, throwing up.
Off for my Birthday bike ride but first moved a bunch in Rydex for the AM price split into Russell 2X and DJIA 2X long on both.
One more friggen’ year (and although I am 47 and a half) I will start collecting Social Security.
I want it and want it now (hopefully will stay alive)!!!
JUST 1 question..
does the market crash in oversold condition?
Oversold is YOUR term (and maybe the term of Fly’s algo).
I’ll call it oversold when the Dow has a 14 handle, and APPL is 75.
I think our healthcare professionals will succeed in containing the ebola virus.
Somebody say something funny, at once !!!!!
market is ABOUT to CRASH !!
My 3 figure account is down 45 cents!
My Hazmat suit just came in the mail.
did you really ..? make sure its not made in CHINA
Oh damn !! I knew the price was too good to be true !!