This is beyond my scope of expertise. All I can tell you is “this too shall pass.” There is probably some high stakes geo-political event taking place between the west and Russia, ahead of winter. Russia has europe over a barrel because they need natural gas. But, by the looks of crude, Russia isn’t fairing too well either.
The biggest loser is the Bakken shale, where drillers are required to extract oil at the ridiculous cost of $70-80 per barrel. With oil approaching $80, people are getting panicky.
Into this morass, I like rate sensitive plays, like TLT, ETR, HE, WRE and a myriad of other utilities and REITs.
I hope we’re done going lower and the market can reverse. But even if it does, the damned price of oil needs to catch a bid.
The good news, naturally, is your monthly gasoline bill. My monthly gasoline expense ranges anywhere from $300-400. How about yours?
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L.A. commute = $280 month
oh, and prices have not budged. in fact, gas is higher than it was a week ago.
gas is $2.97 in NJ. We don’t tax it like other states.
My friend in LA says its $3.60 there. That’s damn cheap for CA.
where do you see support for oil sir ?
79 ish ?
$00.00
understood
House of Saud won’t let it go below $80 for long.
can you elaborate mr stock operator livermore ? ; )
Eastern Long Island it’s 4 bucks or more.
The gas pumping laws crack me up more than the gas spreads between states
~$500
Wow. That blows.
Now that I see I can post, for some reason I couldn’t yesterday.
On the topic of your iPhone Fly, there are places that repair them.
Near me, there’s a place called Repair Sharks. I won’t post their URL since that may be the reason I couldn’t post but if you do a google search, they come up first. Could be a similar operation in your area. You may want to give it a try. If not repair it, then maybe they can extract the data. Good luck.
I am just gonna buy a new phone. I hate hassling. My wife filed an insurance claim with Asurion. I read their reviews and will be declining to accept their stupid bastard replacement phone when it arrives.
They suck, done it before. Definitely better off just getting a new one
This market is so goddamned panicked.
I can feal the feer.
Need to see a floor put in here soon….this is getting RIDIC
please go short. that will put in the floor
I am long w/ leverage
This is a phenomenal buying opportunity
Jesus Christ you make me nervous.
I am long SPY and QQQ calls. How’s that for nervous time son?
It could be worse. You could have calls on TNA and FAS like a man.
I’m crazy but not insane.
I am in a perpetual state of nervousness.
The joke here is I know for a fact HCLP has just renegotiated basically all their supply agreements for 5 year durations with minimum purchase commitments.
So unless their customers actually fold, this selloff is nonsensical.
All of the frac sand companies did. New issues, FMSA, came public at the wrong time.
Fly, I’ve been long oil plays for a few years now in my investing and trading account. Not terribly down in my investing, but getting stomped in my trading. Would you hold in both, or take the loss in trading and stomach out the investing?
Hard to say, without knowing a bigger picture.
All I can say is that I am long SLCA, DVN and CLR and really feel like selling CLR today. But them I measured myself and said to myself to eat a sandwich.
Ultimately, it’s about your pain threshold and where you think these stocks will trade over the next week or so.
Is this the bottom or close to it?
Can you withstand another 10% drop and what types of market caps do your oil stocks have?
i would rather own MSFT over CLR
But MSFT can’t give you +20% in an oil rally.
I’m long SLCA, OAS, and TPLM for investing (first two being med cap and last being small cap). HCLP and TRN for trading.
If I step back and see the big picture, I can stand another 10% drop in my investing because it’s money I won’t be able to touch for almost another 35 years.
I believe it’s close to the bottom. Price drops have been slowing down, and the dollar got called out in Fed minutes. What I know is the USA is the only beckon of hope in this shitty world economy, and what will drive growth here is energy, monetized tech/social media, and healthcare advances.
Also, thank you for response. It can’t be easy putting your neck on the line every single day, especially in a turbulent market like this, and all the trolls and asshats that call you out for it are the truly the ball-less ones.
Those are some high beta plays. You have concentration in frac sand–bad timing.
I’d trade out of one of them and maybe use proceeds to avg down when it looks like we’re turning higher. The potential move higher in those stocks is great, so you can afford to miss the first 5%.
Thank you Fly, I appreciate the timely response and insight.
Potential Pickaxe play- AVE.V
http://youtu.be/hswdAen6xpA?t=1m37s
Buying old tech here, Unisys (UIS)..turn around story for 2015 and potential private equity buyout candidate…stock down 40% YTD
this is one of those markets where you don’t want to be committed either too long or too short .
Oil story now… bid hit bid hit.. no bid … some traders are probably being walked off the desk being long some cal swaps/balmo
Zip. I have one of those newfangled electric cars. About $30/month in electric power from nuke and nat gas power plants.
No you just bought your gas up front.
Every penny decline in the price of gas puts an additional $1 Billion of purchasing power in the hands of American consumers. Since 6/23 gas futures are down from $3.15 to $2.29 (yesterday). That’s $86 billion increase in purchasing power.
It should be a boon for retailers and restaurants.
If you want to raise purchasing power (and I do), raise the minumum wage to $15 an hour, and slap a 110% tax on ALL income above $300K.
le fly would not like that.
That’s a bad idea.
If XLE and XOP close the week above yesterday’s low of $85.47 and $60.96 respectively, that would be a good sign that the bottom in this oil crash is now.
Altho WTI looks like it wants to test $80, but if everyone thinks that then it prob won’t.
Good call on oil being the determining factor! Not saying yesterday was a fakeout or anything and that oil didn’t buy it, but they do say initial reactions after Fed meetings are the fakeout. Also the bounce did not breach where SPY fell below its multi-year trend support. I’m pretty much cash around these parts and just glad I wasn’t greedy yesterday!
Dr. Fly
How about organic oil and corporations can charge more for that? 🙂
Grass fed oil
We also had MASSIVE volume on yesterday’s reversals in XLE and XOP. If the volume drops off and those days end up being the largest volume days *and* the both close the week well off the lows of $85.47 and $60.96 then that would bode well.
Yesterday’s RUT plunge below support, taking out sell stops, of 1,080is and reversal back above support *could* have been a bear trap. Weekly close is more important than the daily noise and will determine if that was the case. Focus on that.
Could be the start of something ominous. I keep trying to catch a bottom but keeps dropping out. And I’m literally an oil man.
I feel so smart for swapping my ES for NQ this morning
Because you are smart
I personally think the low is in for this swoon. The key indicator I follow made its lowest low on 9/25 when the SPX was down 32 pts. It has since made higher lows on the 10/2 reversal day and on 10/7 and 10/8. This divergence has almost always signaled that the bottom is in. But this could change depending on the price action the rest of the week.
My position is now green….We go higher.
Small caps are starting to outperform, leading the charge back up.
I might have to give you a blog here.
Huggie Bear’s Outrageous Portfolio Stratagem
not for the faint of heart!
I’d read that one!
After this is done and we go higher I will punch Faber’s smug ugly face off with graped fruits!
http://imgur.com/1Em7rOX
SLCA looks sooo damn tempting down here.
This dip bores me. We all know how this is going to end….lets just get on with it.
I’m waiting for Fly’s “The Meatgrinder of 2014” post
1986 Price of a gallon was .79 in my home town wonder if I ever see those prices again
There is probably some idiot commodity hedge fund that was 10-20x leveraged long crude that is blowing up right now.
Like Amaranth did with nat gas in ’06. Morons. Other hedgies get whiff of the massive position and losses and they will short the shit out of crude to cause margin calls and profit off the collapse.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/19/business/19hedge.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
I’m not a trader just an empty suit but how can one invest in this market. Is a collapse at least possible?
cc: OA, for your survey.
More pain!….” I hurt myself today to see if I still feel”
This is beginning to seem modestly unhealthy.
I’m with you, I’m long roughly 300 SPY calls
Sitting on 30 ES contracts….from higher.
Me too, unless we close below 1928 spx im not concerned, for the moment
Blood in the streets today… absolute beat down
Asurion – Nashville company. Cash cow. Always thought Warren will buy them.
The good news FLY — its like you never missed yesterday’s rally.
Last time crude futures probed these levels – 4/18/13 it bottomed at $85.90. Before that, 11/7/12 bottomed at $84.05.
These levels are making me nervous….close below 195 and im out.
Canadian – currently paying $4.67 USD per gallon. It was over $6 last year. Quit you’re whining. I want oil at $38 a barrel.
This is completely psychotic market. I just got my bias changed 3 times since yesterday, from sworn bearish to bullish at the top to bearish. All hail skynet algos, they be the only non-living thing nailing this scam both sides.
All I know is when it rains like this those
with cash-all hail BlueStar- wait until
the wife is gone ,the dog is dead,the car
is stolen but you get all back if
you play a country song backwards.
So can companies like EPD and PXD actually meet expectations in terms of oil production? Is the oil actually there?