With the Islamic State on the move, cutting heads off along their way to Allah, western treasuries continue to gain steam. I cannot stress this enough to all of you lads, drunk about the water cooler, drinking gin from a water bottle.
There is a safety trade taking place, at the same time application software stocks rip through roofs.
This is what I am going to do.
I will collect another monthly dividend from my TLT position, then liquidate it in september. I just sold out of my ECOM position because it refuses to rally. I don’t have time for that, so I took a 3% loss. With the cash on hand, I am going to buy a basket of utility stocks–some today, others next week.
I am going to hold said basket through september, or until I am proven right or wrong (this gives me room to wiggle). The way I see it, buying utilities is a preferable way to fade this rally without actually fading it. I don’t want to just go to cash because my temperament doesn’t allow me to sit idle for long periods of time.
Longer term, I still own a crap load of stuff, from GILD to ICPT to SLCA to HAIN. If the market melts up, I will not miss it entirely. I am simply shifting my trading assets into a bomb shelter.
Stay tuned.
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Why sell TLT? isn’t it a safety trade as well? Honest question.
I am going to sell in Sept. That doesn’t mean right away.
I hope to buy the dip, if it ever materizlizes.
Long TLT for far too long but enjoying the ride. Do not wish to short but any target price that is really in stupid land to start selling? I was thinking 123/125 area.
Wise. TLT is due for a pullback. Long term higher. Sell signal today. Rubber band stretched.
Dr. Fly,
Thanks fro the reply, but, Im not sure I understand. If you believe that we get the start of a yr 2000 style selloff in September, what is the reasoning for selling TLT (safe haven) going into a large selloff. Treasuries are the ultimate knee jerk safety trade in Selloffs aren’t they? Thanks for any clarity.
“Longer term” $GOGO?
I still own it, yes.
Looking good Karim.
I know you’re leading toward the 2000 scenario but remember the high flyers went through a similar decline in early 1997 (see CSCO down about 40% in a few months) which rendered them dead in many eyes. Then then roared back to new highs later that year.
THIS IS 2000 (kicks Jerry down digital water well)
ok richard
I didn’t think you’d pick today to reveal yourself via the blog picture, Fly but I like your style.. That’s a fat stack a bills and a sweet hat.
Do you like my chain?
Yes and your watch.
great trade on that 20 yr. definitely had my doubts it’d pan out so quickly
NRG is an interesting ute with some optionality. What do you think about EXC? EIX?