iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
17,097 Blog Posts

A SEMINAL EVENT IS UPON US

I believe a seminal shift in investor sentiment is upon us, regarding the prodigious precious metals. You all know how I feel about gold, categorizing its owners as miscreant tenants of barbarism. Right now, however, I am long the barbarian. As a matter of fact, I am the barbarian. Would you care to see my hordes?

I cobbled together funds from three underperforming positions and crafted a decent sized one with CDE. It was a rather bold move, considering how overbought gold and silver both are. However, over a longer term time frame, these stocks are inexpensive. Imagine buying solar stocks at the beginning of its mammoth turn in 2011, like I did. Now imagine if you actually held those stocks and dream of the money you could’ve made.

Remember the SALT conference? Do you recall how bearish our fellow industry professionals were? These clowns are dying to get pessimistic. For them, positioning long gold is a proxy for hating on the market, without having to take on shorts. We all know who buys gold stocks: Tea Party people, anarchists, old men and sophisticated money managers who live in a world of phantasm.

This move in the miners seems legit. Volume is robust and there are numerous excuses to be long, even at extended levels.

I like CDE to $10.

My ytd losses have been reduced to 18%.

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41 comments

  1. matt_bear

    RIOM!

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  2. 8BALL

    the whole market cap for gold/silver stocks is paltry compared to other sectors. If they choose to take it higher they can.

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  3. the pirate

    I’ll take a ‘Tea Party small gov’t redneck’ guy over a corrupt radical ‘leftist in the stop the XL pipeline because it hurts my rail portfollio’ biz guy any day.

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  4. Rlbrkr

    Long $AUY

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    • Gold Member

      Right on! Keep buying until Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Turkey, Syria, Egypt, and Israel are all under the ISIS flag.

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    • highsurf

      Spreads on July calls aren’t too bad either.

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  5. Jorby

    Can I point something out?

    “With today’s move higher, my losses are now under 20% for the year, up 17% over the past 6 weeks. ”

    You write like you just add the gains and the losses, but if you really were down -37% (hard to believe you’d let that happen) then you’d need to be up more than 17% to have losses under 20%.

    Don’t you have a page in your broker that just tells you this stuff? Why guess?

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    • Mister Jinx

      Who said he’s guessing?

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    • Dr. Fly

      Jorby

      What I meant was I recovered that amount from the bottom. Of course the actual return is more.

      Being that the accounts are spread out across many, it’s not so simple as to quote an exact number, unless I sat down and tallied it all up. Unlike the sophisticated platforms of the discount houses, the full services houses use rudimentary methods to calculate gains/losses.

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      • Jorby

        Thats fair enough, although I’m really surprised to read that.

        I wouldn’t know, but if you’re saying a custodian like Merrill Lynch doesn’t show you the daily gain or loss for the accounts you manage then I find that astonishing and hard to believe they don’t have that technology.

        What does “being that the accounts are spread out across many” mean? You mean different brokerages?

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        • Dr. Fly

          I do not work for Merrill and you’d be shocked at how poor the technology is at some of these major clearing firms.

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    • matt_bear

      you’d need a 28% gain to go from down 37 to only down 19.

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      • Dr. Fly

        I am down 18% now.

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      • Dr. Fly

        But at the end of the day, what I am up or down is immaterial to any of you. What exactly transpires behind my closed doors can only be accounted for by me and me alone. All you need to know is what have I traded lately and how has that trade worked out.

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        • Jorby

          I haven’t been reading much lately but you must have nailed some big winners to get there! -37% is a intimidating hole! That’s 50% to back even! Nice run so far.

          My question that I deal with is if you are down that much, you must have taken some big bets that went south. But in order for you to be up, what 28% in only 6 weeks, that’s a good year, you must have taken on yet more huge or risky positions to gain so much back.

          So what happens if you lose a second time? How would you deal with that? What is your recommendation on how to get out of a hole?

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          • Dr. Fly

            Jorby

            I’ve changed my methods. I took massive drawdowns in The Four Horsemen of financial death: FEYE, SPLK, WDAY and YELP/DATA.

            Since then, I’ve cut losses quickly and broadened out my allocations.

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  6. anton

    “These are the Glengarry leads, and to you they’re gold… And you don’t get them.”

    Nice recovery so far, Le Fly.

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  7. Jorby

    B.T.W. reallllllly shocked you are a gold man now, what is going on here ?!?!

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  8. Sierra Water

    Interesting how one can change there fundamental secular view of an investment every six months. My plan has always been and remains long PMs until 2016 min. The long term bull trend line has not been broken since 2004. All is white noise till an SDR is inacted.

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    • Dr. Fly

      And your plan, for lack of a better word, has been fuckingwrong.

      Gold has been a bane for two years until now.

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    • drummerboy

      won’t be an sdr.klickex is in beta in aud now.wont be long.hey flyseph the chinese are partnering with barrack,newmont. and yamana.cde could get some pin action off of it.idk could be good for a look see.

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  9. Sierra Water

    ^ “their” idiot.

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  10. bonobo smores

    Been in THM for a while waiting for the price of gold to make their Alaska project feasible. Nice two day rally in it.
    Congratulations on 1/2 way to recovery

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  11. drummerboy

    silver you bitchezzzz………(because the cement head said so)

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  12. VolSeller

    That is a heck Of a come back so far. I am impressed. From down 37% to -18%. Stay focused! This comeback will be epic!

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  13. brushfyah

    account equity up 150% in 10 trading days. long calls in the metals and miners. just trying to stay sane here…

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    • Jennifer

      I predict bankruptcy within a year. Whomever has returns like that in that period of time is sure to experience the other side of that soon enough.

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      • brushfyah

        Jennifer gonna hate. what else is new.

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      • drummerboy

        i predict a boner in your future.being without for so long and all.odds may be in your favor, even though you may be experienced in the other side,who knows.

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  14. TJWP

    It is amazing to see how many readers still rise to the bait as it were.

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  15. uglyflint

    Just grab you some nuggets……NUGT

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  16. OG

    One look at the BBRY Passport and I had to short it. lol

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  17. razorsedge

    gold,
    what a concept.

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  18. ironbird

    ORCL blowing up on earnings could put even moar eyes on the miners.

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  19. danny noonan

    long time lurker saw this last week on. The miners play and thought to myself now thats fucking contrarian.But I’m not yet sold on this move in gold and silver. It be just be someone gaming the shorts. Just like they do with the indicies and run the short stops. Either ways its interesting action considering june and july are the worst months for pm’s. That said silver seasonality the last 5 years has 100% beat the snp average for that month. We shall see how this cookie crumbles.

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  20. danny noonan

    *august seasonality.

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  21. Airrick

    Rumor has it they are making a bid for “The Fly” to be the new CEO of American Apparel. They appreciate his business savvy and his frappuccino image will bode well for the brand intergrity.

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