I know the market appears to be constructive now, especially since we’re near new highs and all of the high beta stocks are rallying again. However, as of now, we are simply dead cat bouncing. The reason why I can say that with absolute certainty is because it’s true. The biggest losers over the past three months are now the biggest winners. All you have to do is screen for stocks down more than 30% over the past 3 months, and layer atop of that some technical factors and price action magic and voila: you have yourself a nice winner.
Be on guard for false breakouts.
As of now, I am still in the camp that this is simply a respite, along the lines of 2000. This is the bounce after the dip. We will rally until late June, then sell off through July. The market will, once again, rally in August, topping out in September, then enter a most horrendous and miserable Samsonite Hamburgalar bear market through December.
I can only hope to recover half of my losses, realistically. Perhaps by August I will be in a position to short stocks and double my gains as the market vomits on itself, salvaging my year. There is a long road ahead of us. Try not to let your weak-minded emotions get in the way of seeing things clearly.
NOTE: The PPT‘s 7 day hold on the QQQ’s, which was closed out yesterday, was sublime.
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Beats is worth anything as long as trillions more in student loans gets puked to the kids. Degrees as fire starters for the win.
“The market will run into late June,sell out in July pop in August sell off from September to December.” If only it was that easy.
But it is that easy.
Fly, aren’t you going to wait until the Fed ends their QE after October and see what happens to interest rates?
I thought home ownership was supposed to go up before they stabbed out eyes with sharpened pencils
Home ownership rates are 80’s levels I believe. I live in Chicago, rental rates are out of control here. Institutions are buying houses, not individuals. Individuals are renting here.
Majority of “new home” data starting to become apt/multifamily
They PEAKED out the housing market again. Rent is just beginning to show declines. Because THAT reached a saturation. The large demo babyboomers DOWN sizing without generational replacement. Housing will contribute to recession trigger again
geez…Dr. Grinch over here with his Kill Santa Rally
If what you say is true than one should sell everything tomorrow!
7Y Treasury yields cracked below 2% for the first time since Nov 2013.
GDP rev is out tomorrow.
Is expected -0.5 so it won’t be a surprise even though does reflect a Q2 that won’t be much higher
Not sure about the woods thing… I have never been in it to begin with and so most money managers I know, actually all money managers I know – perfect year so far – not many people buy momentum overvalued stocks I guess.