Back in 1998, my book of business was a smoldering mess, reeling from the 1997 debacle. I had been fired from my previous firm, supplanted from the office I was placed in at my new firm for lack of production, and generally hating life being the sole source of income for my wife and newborn son. In the summer of 1998 the Russian crisis hit, aka “Asian contagion”, and it wreaked havoc on equity markets, sending the Nazzy down a cool 30%+ in a matter of 8 weeks.
Whatever clients I had left were decimated, reduced to rubble, thanks to the ruble. At that point in time, I was looking to switch careers. I never really made any money, so I had nothing to lose and nothing to gain by staying.
After failing to secure “a real job”, I had no choice but to get to work.
Barnes and Noble’s was one of the stocks I was buying, getting smoked daily like a pack of Benson and Hedges. Unlike today, BKS was a hot stock. They were supposed to take on AMZN for online bookstore dominance. They even had a deal with MSFT that led people to believe they’d beat AMZN’s face in.
WRONG.
But the point is, it was a momo stock, lifted more on sentiment than fundamentals. As you can see, when the animal spirits left Wall, the stock lost its floor and crashed 50% in a few months.
Look at today’s momo stocks. Even though the Nazzy is only off 6% from the highs, there are stocks down 30-40% on no news, simply a side effect of cancer infecting the minds of speculators. Clearly, this is overdone. Nothing goes down in a line. Nothing goes up in a line. Nothing lasts forever, except death.
Based on the current numbers, if the Nazzy fell by another 25% (LOL!), FEYE would be down around 80% from the top, sitting at around $15. C’mon son.
Just like 1998, this market isn’t going down on fundies. It’s going down because of fear. When the fear dissipates (look at that chart), we are going to whipsaw around faster than you can shoot your margin clerks in the head.
I built my business in 1998, went from supreme piker to #3 producer at the firm in less than a year. It was a crazy lifestyle change for me, as I was literally sitting at 10% equity at the time we bottomed. Accounts were teetering on zero equity, long internet stocks into the teeth of insanity. Everyone around me was in cash and warned me to stop buying stocks. Stubbornly, I kept calling people, telling them to “buy the blood and drink it like a fucking Vampire in a blood bank.”
When it bottomed, my money line went apeshit to the upside. I even got my office back. Clients sent me their friends, mothers and grandmothers to manage–all setting up for another grande fiasco in 2000. But that’s another story.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twnUE2yLdZA
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My god… you are on fire, publishing these blogs one after another… and boom.. this came out while I was sitting remembering 1998.. the first crash I traded through, this is some telepathy Dr.
I remember like it was yesterday, I was flying high like a … covered in asian stocks up to my eyeballs… and boom – Mr. Market decided to teach me a my first lesson of being cocky… many sleepless nights after i survived 🙂
This too shall pass good Dr.
Mr.P
But do you remember speed of the fall? Fuck me with my Asian funds… I was up like 35% …. it only took a couple of days to put me negative for the year lol that was some serious Fear… and HFTs were not there yet… good times, calling brokers and such lol
The speed was crazy. My CEO was running in the halls trying to save his company, doing liquidation for the margin clerk at 10am
Even remembering that time makes my heart go faster and gives me goose bumps… I remember calling some broker and it was like a war zone in the background … why no movie about that I have no idea… may be there is one Philippine made lol
Asia was dumping so hard, daily.
Wow grasping for straws comparing BKS in 1998 with FEYE. Let’s compare, shall we?
1998 BKS: $1 Billion market cap at peak, $2.5 Billion TTM revenues, $51 Million TTM Net Income
2014 FEYE: $14 Billion mkt cap at peak, $162 Million TTM Revenues, -$121 Million TTM Loss
FEYE will bottom around a $1 Billion market cap…possibly lower after the cloud hype dissipates on basically reality: when competition enters the space en-force margins get crushed.
I’ll bet you my penis it will never go lower than $30, ever.
They will do $400 mill for the year. Your numbers are as dumb as your name.
My fallopian tubes say $1 Billion or less within 2 years.
Let me guess: all the finest gentlemen buy overhyped cloud stocks trading at 90 times unprofitable sales? Much like buying dry bulk stocks marching head long into a Chinese recession and worldwide movement away from dirty coal usage, two components making up about oh lets see…80% of the dry bulk trade?
Made a fortune long BALT.
I don’t get it, son. You got 300’d by my pirate ship on BALT. How dare you mention it. I sold north of $7!!!
No you didn’t. Nice try though.
Might I add, stocks don’t trade up on net income or revenues. That’s why you are Jennifer and I am “The Fly.”
When you figure it out, I’ll be trolling you on your website.
FEYE will be switching their strategy to drone manufacturing after the cloud bubble bursts. Bank on it.
Everytime you buy a chocolate cake, FEYE has your back: FireEye, Inc. provides various real-time protection products to enterprises and governments. It provides malware protection system (MPS) products, including software-based appliances, such as Web MPS appliances that are deployed inline at enterprise Internet access points to analyze all Web traffic; Email MPS, which detects and stops advanced attacks that exploit unknown OS, browser, and application vulnerabilities, as well as malicious code embedded in email content; and File MPS appliances analyzes network file servers to detect and quarantine malicious software brought into the network by users within the organization through technologies, such as online file sharing and associated collaboration tools. The company also offers a range of cloud-based subscription services comprising dynamic threat intelligence cloud and Email MPS attachment/URL engine services, as well as customer support, and training and professional services. In addition, it provides endpoint threat detection, response, and remediation products; advanced threat intelligence; and incident response and security consulting services. The company offers its products and services through distributors, resellers, and strategic partners in the United States, the Asia Pacific, Japan, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. The company was formerly known as NetForts, Inc. and changed its name to FireEye, Inc. in September 2005. FireEye, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Milpitas, California. [From Yahoo! Finance]
Bull fucking shit they don’t, it’s a wonder your gross ineptitude isn’t even more obvious with statements like that
Yeah these comparisons are ridiculous.
How can you credibly say that revs and NI don’t matter (THATS TOP/ BOTTOM LINE SALES JULES, NOT SHELF OFFERINGS) and then offer some horse crap guesstimate of what future sales might be as a justification of the extreme overvaluation!?
Especially since in your “example” you note how woefully BKS missed every target with the benefit of hindsight!
This isn’t flaming this is genuine what the fuckery. Your methods call A LOT into question
And FEYE isn’t cloud dipshit. It’s security.
Oh sorry I must have gotten that mixed up with the 50X Unprofitable Sales “Best Stock” that was WDAY when you pumped it >$100 🙂 Almost as comical as the Very Kool crap IFON.
Oh, WDAY!
The management that hasn’t missed a quarter in 20years?
Good luck betting agains them! Seriously, good luck.
IFON is a small position.
“The company also offers a range of cloud-based subscription services comprising dynamic threat intelligence cloud ”
Cloud + Cyber Security = two overhyped keywords that make momentum traders paying zero attention to fundamentals masturbate over.
Oh my. You are really going to press this issue?
They are a security company. They keep your debit card transaction safe.
Oh, hate to tell you, those travel via “the cloud” too. You know, that fad you speak off. Soon enough, we’ll all start reverting back to DRAM drives and Iomega will make a comeback.
The hype isn’t the cloud. It’s the trust by investors that revenues will magically grow into infinity for the major players without any regard to competition and crimping margins. 90X sales is absolutely absurd for any software company, especially one that happened to get priced at $14 Billion at one point.
1998 – Clinton popped his load on his interns dark blue dress. He picked dark blue, of all the colors in the spectrum of the universe he picked that one. Then he lied and Matt Drudge became a millionaire,
You hear the word cloud and your brain shuts off.
Understand the company before you make judgements.
Then again, I expect nothing less from a man who goes by the name of Jennifer.
“The company also offers a range of cloud-based subscription services comprising dynamic threat intelligence cloud ”
It’s ok to admit it that you wet your pants when you read cloud and security in the same paragraph.
FEYE will do $622 mill in revenues by 2015.
Short it. Go ahead.
$622 Million and Well over $100 Million in losses. An ape could run a more profitable business.
They are in growth mode. My god you are dense.
Jennifer,
I just chequemated you so hard due to your ignorance, please save yourself from further embarrassment and go to bed.
By the way I think these POS stocks bounce only because so many people panicked at once that most sellers are gone. For your sake I hope you get out at a reasonable price.
I don’t care what you think.
Yes you do. Deep down inside you know you got suckered into overhyped stocks. Here’s to the bounce being strong enough for you to get out at a reasonable price.
+1
+2
Ok, I am out.
Flame away.
Sweet dreams. Anyone short this market will get their heads ripped off eventually very soon. Maybe not tomorrow but it will come. Your stocks will bounce too. The only one I would consider out of the whole lot is YELP…as well as LNKD and FB in the same space.
Problem is we are heading into a recession, though. And no one knows it.
YELP is the strongest of the four red-headed step children
FB, except that Zuckerhead went out and spent all his lunch money on a shit sandwich that he cannot monetize.
But he used monopoly money, so it’s ok
Of course I bought it too high, in hindsight. My cost in feye is 72. I haven’t claimed to have gamed this tape right at all.
As for the other guy talking shit, I can only suggest that you put your money where your mouth is and short it. There’s no need to go back and forth about how to value a hyper growth stock. People like you have been crying bloody murder for a decade in amazon. Let’s not turn this fine comments section into something warped and demented, a haven for trolls and creatures.
72? Your last declared cost basis was 75 and change, so you added another 15% around 52, correct?
I did mention having bought some.
I am so fortunate to have you here. Speaking of which, my company is looking for a new accountant. The current bastard charges us too much and is too good at what he does.
Would you care to apply for the job? Tax season is almost over and I am sure H&R Block won’t pay you as much as I will.
That’s generous but I’ll pass, maybe Jules will be interested
What else do you have to do?
After tax season, it’s back to KFC.
Surely you can set aside our differences. Hey, you can even peer into the cost basis of my holdings and make sure I report them here, correctly, down to the last dime.
What say you?
Managing Director of Global Compliance suits me better, thanks all the same though, you’re much too kind
Oooh, managing director of compliance. You must’ve gotten straight Cs in law school to get that gig. Or perhaps you’re not even an attorney.
Do tell
Director – I wonder what your mgmt would think if they saw all your posts… Maybe its time to find out who you are. Can’t be that many “Managing Director of Global Compliance” at a small firm. For sure, you’re not working at one of the big boys with crazy ass posts like yours.
I’m curious, how many times a year do you trade? I already know the answer.
Couldn’t cut it as a trader, eh?
You get what you pay for. Keep your accountant… the fees are worth it.
A bunch of guys getting on TV and 60 minutes for heavens sake, yelling the market is FIXED when what they are really talking about is fractions of a penny per share, does not help. Just as Joe Blow is thinking about funding his IRA these dudes are getting on every news and interview show with their hyperbole selling books and promoting a new exchange. Those guys really fixed us.
Yeah so sweep any inconvenient fraud under the rug? That is a shameful attitude for an American
American’s only care about conquering the lands of others. We also like to throw drug dealers into prison.
Why don’t you shut your pied hole?
Clearly a model citizen yourself, well done
Let me guess…
CANADIENNE eh?
I am American to the core, but cascadian….if it walks like a Canadian goose and quacks like a Canadian goose…
Anyway it’s 230 see you all tomorrow
Ah a hipster. No different between a Cascadienne and a Canadienne in my estimation.
Sweet dreams pothead!
nobody is alleging fraud. Nobody serious in any event. Front running trades is not a fraud so far as I understand the word.
lol
Damn It, I just knew it was too good. China Security Journal has gossip out about possible more sweeping stimulus out of China after that tiny one last week. I so dislike Govt Actions. Market isn’t dealing with fundies at all..just cocaine.
Fly – “Nothing lasts forever, except death.”
correction: not even death lasts forever
http://www.figu.org/ch/files/downloads/buecher/goblet-of-the-truth.pdf
“And a further error you many amongst you make is that you assume that as a personality you would only have a unique life, because truthly after the dying, the life continues in a new existence on Earth but contrary to the irrational teaching of the person-bound reincarnation; truthly the personality extinguishes after the dying and developmentally changes itself in the fine-fluidal realm of the other world of the overall consciousness-block into a neutral energy out of which a new and unburdened consciousness with an equally new personality is created which is then born anew, together with the spirit-form of the human being which, after the dying of the material body, also goes into its fine-fluidal realm of the other world and from out of there reincarnates again and, contrary to the personality, is alone capable of being reborn; so you shall be conscious that you have already often lived a material-current life as always new personalities, just as you will continue again and again, as always new personalities, to pass through new lives; and that will happen so often and for such a long time until your spirit, i.e. your spirit-form has developed so highly through your evolution of your consciousness that it no longer needs a material body and consciousness anymore and thus goes as a higher form into a higher level.”
More things breaking 50MAs
Tonight’s broken highlight (drumroll) BAC
XLF sitting right on it (again) If I could just get that one
that was a delightful troll vs host combat-a-thon to enrich my usual 4:45am info gathering ! thanx kids & much appreciated.
Pardon my intrusion, but I have urgent news: the miracle stock has been identified. It is YELP. Buy some today!!
Sincerely,
Rong Xu
well..I must say that chain of comments was an interesting read with my coffee!! I only have one question for Jennifer – please tell what you are holding?? long? short?
“Pied hole”..giggled like a little bitch!!
Its cozy here in brazil this time of year…not too late to join me!
and here comes the proverbial slew of upgrades to said beaten down names….
feye, yelp, twtr, fb, sale
Will hold my FEYE (cb72) just to be part of this memorable exchange.
Fly, I would like to apply for the accounting position. I assume you use FIFO for your recognized losses considering you have continued to chase FEYE on the way down, your first purchases were muuuuuch higher than your most recent purchases and you have no gains to offset the large recognized losses so that will help you get a little check from the IRS next year, let me know if I got the job 🙂
judging by that chart and time machine story, the morale of the story is that if it turns around this is a 2-3 month process. I don’t think the majority of traders here will have the stomach to wait it out.
Futures screaming to the upside +1.5. The PPT strikes again. Marked the bottoum perfectly.
Ooh, a dentist emerges.
Yes- since your fans include so many doctors and lawyers, I figured you needed a dentist as well. At your service… I specialize in the gold touth. Nice post btw.
How do you guys think LL looks here?
I got it based on seasonality predictions in the PPT; got smoked in March. But it looks like a decent company overall.
Really enjoyed the shit show-to bad its
over.Can’t remember the last time
the fly had his panties in a bunch.