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Joined Nov 10, 2007
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Thoughts on Ugly $ANGI

Luckily I sold ANGI near $19 a few weeks ago. I sold it because of my aversion to earnings and how they tend to murder people who trust them. Looking at these numbers, I am shocked at how bad this company is being managed. They are in a sweet spot and should be killing it. I call into question their decision to spend inordinate sums of money on marketing, and poorly to boot. If you’re gonna spend $20 million per quarter on marketing, you better grow your damned business.

Frankly, there isn’t any excuse for this abysmal execution. Management should be changed, ASAP.

On the plus side, even at the lowest end of 2014 revenue projections, ANGI is trading 4x sales. It shouldn’t get much lower than 3x, or $11 per share. If ANGI gets down to $11, I will be buying with both hands.

Eventually, this works big. Once they figure out how to scale the business and stop wasting money on idiotic teevee commercials, I think ANGI will trade up to 10x sales, maybe even higher. No one trusts the stock because management has proven to be inept.

But there is value to the enterprise and the stock will not stay down for long.

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50 comments

  1. UncleBuccs

    Dr. Fly, I would like to buy ANGI at $11. Might only use one hand, though…

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  2. lplongo

    Had a limit order in for 13.7 early but revised up to 14.2 and got it. Happy with that entry, as it should be support extending from mid-Dec.

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  3. greencandle

    ANGI’s an interesting idea, but a bad stock. I know one person who uses it, she is 74 years old. Peers use TWTR, FB, YELP. Stay away, any of those companies could kill it with one press release.

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  4. ironbird

    Could be a problem with the business.The old are the homeowners the young rent and 3/4 of the country are dirt poor. The old do not use the net and already know who to use. Also housewives love fucking over business. One friend with one paid usage can blab it to all her friends.

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    • ironbird

      Gotta wonder how bad it would have been without the tv ads.

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      • ironbird

        The old need to die then the young friendless generation inherits and angie becomes a beauty queen.

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        • greencandle

          and you make two thousand dollars. Great trade-off.

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        • ironbird

          Wtf are you trying to say? Not that it matters. Was giving a take on the business. Whether it was a real growth machine yet.

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        • greencandle

          I was just trying to compliment your choice of hairstyle. Relax, it’s only money.

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    • heaterman

      THIS is why ANGI na
      will never amount to a hill of beans.

      “Also housewives love fucking over business. One friend with one paid usage can blab it to all her friends.”

      Being in the contracting biz myself I have seen dozens of examples of this.
      A friend who owns a large P&H firm in York PA. had his business written up on ANGI. A check of his records revealed that his company was never even at the lady’s place to begin with let along wreak the havoc reported on ANGI’s website. It took 4 months and threats of a lawsuit to get them to pull the post.
      The model is fundamentally flawed in that regard and it will soon become about as valid as the Yahoo Finance message boards.

      JMHO

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  5. xxxhuggiebearxxx

    Afraid not….they are fundamentally flawed. Key issues are that consumers have to pay and they only have 2MM members. That is shit. Yelp has, what, 140MM visitors per month? We can excuse Yelps paltry financials because of the future promise of monetizing those eyeballs..

    Angie had a story, it was the promise of maturing various locale cohorts to perform like their “oldest” cities. The problem is Topeka and Kansas City will never perform like Boston and Chicago, in a business such as this.

    It may be good for a trade at some point, but their model is busted. If they stop advertising on TV, they no longer have a business at all.

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  6. bushwacker2

    ANGI is now a multi-quarter project as mgmt has to build credibility. It could be played for a short term bounce, but not long term —yet.

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  7. greencandle

    Buy MET coal right now. Don’t know what else to recommend. WLT. WLT.. Just look at it. It sucks right now, so buy. In Austrailia there will be floods, there will be strikes, WLT coal is the ‘Bees Knees’ buy and forget.

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    • formergeek

      At last summers lows so could be good risk/ reward with stop loss just below 10

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    • The Fly

      WLT is heading for chapter 11

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      • monte burns

        Agreed.

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      • greencandle

        They made a poor acquisition at the top of the market and their management has been in a bit of disarray, but I dont think they are headed for bankruptcy. Met coal markets should firm up this year as other producers cut supply and idle mines.

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  8. The Fly

    You’re all Internet experts. Very amusing.

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  9. ironbird

    Retail sector is straight up free fall. The desperation ads on bozophones better be the money makers they need. Glorified phone book will not be enough.

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  10. sia

    Oooooo The Fly finally comes around to realize what ANGI is!

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  11. sgt hartman

    The Yellen honeymoon is over. We now return to our regularly scheduled program.

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  12. the pirate

    Your tax dollars hard at work:

    “PA allocates $46 million more for terrorists in 2014”
    http://www.palwatch.org/main.aspx?fi=157&doc_id=10654

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  13. xochi

    ANGI is stupid. CRCM is smart.

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  14. widespreadpanik

    F ANGI and look hard at AWAY. Renting homes for a vacation is an entirely new model.

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  15. johnrotten

    I was at the Oakley Vault yesterday buying some new lenses for my Cancun trip next week when my Buddy who owns a rather large family restaurant called and asked for the number of my “furnace man.” I live in a small Mid-Western town and drink beers with all the contractors I will ever need. Home repair isn’t rocket science, save the electrical and gas,
    Here in Hooterville, we do use Samsung and Apple smartphones, but no Angi. I’d rather spend $200 on sunglasses than someone’s opinion on a roofer. At the end of the day, they’re all uneducated, drunken assholes who charge too much. Just make sure they are insured and bonded.
    No disrespect intended, Fly. I made some money with you on this.

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    • tradercaddy

      And especially make sure they have workers comp in addition to liability as well as have the proper State licensing (if they don’t and something happens the homeowners insurance will not pay).
      Also ask to see a copy of the insurance company face sheet (declarations page) to see the effective date as well as the policy limits.
      And make sure you are aware how the lien laws work in case they sub some of it out. You may end up paying twice.
      And make sure it is properly permitted (if they say it’s not necessary don’t believe them and call your County people to double check).
      That is all.

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    • heaterman

      ALL is a rather broad brush stroke……

      I would really like to be a little more descriptive and colorful than that mild rebuke but I was raised better than that.

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  16. gatorsun

    CRTO well done …upgrades galore today

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  17. lvs666

    I’m almost always on your side, but ANGI is not a product people will pay for. They need to change the model.

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  18. tradercaddy

    Maybe ANGI should stop spending their advertising $$ on commercials between reruns of Gomer Pyle and Leave It To Beaver.

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  19. j livermore

    Great post.

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  20. TheHarper

    She really is an ugly woman, very middle America.

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  21. ecchymosis

    Sold my last ANGI shares at a slight profit. Will bury copy of trade confirmation with garlic bulb and wooden cross.

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  22. gudenaev

    Lol, seeking alpha coming out with a $0 PT for ANGI

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  23. bood

    we’re in one hell of a bull ride .. ( long..)

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  24. bood

    money is buying avidly today.

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  25. bood

    sorry no scary 1929 horror tape tomorrow….

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  26. bood

    up 4,6% today……

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  27. lplongo

    $ANGI is not a make money right now story. Pay model flawed bc mgmt flawed. New mgmt means new model. YELP has same issue with false reviews but mgmt did something about it and right people at ANGI can, too. Best thing they can do for shareholders is announce they are seeking new mgmt. I am sure there is someone left at GOOG they can hire, ha.

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