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Yearly Archives: 2013

Everyone Loves Facebook!

Amazing how one quarter can change public opinion. I am long from low $30’s and welcome the idea of being profitable on the position.

Facebook beats by $0.05, beats on revs  (26.51 +0.38)
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.19 per share, $0.05 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.14; revenues rose 53.1% year/year to $1.81 bln vs the $1.62 bln consensus.

  • Key Metrics: Daily active users (DAUs) were 699 mln on average for June 2013, an increase of 27% year-over-year.
  • Monthly active users (MAUs) were 1.15 bln as of June 30, 2013, an increase of 21% year-over-year.
  • Mobile MAUs were 819 mln as of June 30, 2013, an increase of 51% year-over-year.  Mobile DAUs were 469 mln on average for June 2013.
  • Mobile advertising revenue represented ~41% of advertising revenue for the second quarter of 2013 versus expectations of ~32.5%. 
  • GAAP operating margin was 31% for the second quarter of 2013, compared to negative 63% in the second quarter of 2012. Excluding share-based compensation and related payroll tax expenses, non-GAAP operating margin was 44% for the second quarter of 2013, compared to 43% for the second quarter of 2012.
  • Conference Call Begins today at 17:00

In addition to FB, TRIP smashed earnings, as well as BIDU. Tech is where money need to be allocated. No doubt about it.

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This Isn’t Working

I sold out of RKUS, SCTY, FSLR and WDAY. RKUS and WDAY were 1% gains, both SCTY and FSLR were 4.5% losses. Whatever thought process that went into overweighting solar after a triple digit gain is now over. I am 50% cash and looking to redeploy into a new thesis.

Ideally, I’d like to buy dips. But given the recent history of stocks, that’s not likely to occur.

I am being tortured by FRO and can only hope for the very worst for current longs holding the name.

My CXO is being pummeled and of course IMMR is trickling lower. I’m not in a rush to allocate capital here, knowing my hand is cold. It took me about a decade or so to realize when I got cold and when I was red hot. Before this epiphany, I was like many of you–stuck in the ego box of mediocrity, thinking I was right all the time.

Well, the best investors know when they suck and understand when to push the envelope. Being that my recent thought process surrounded around the idea of swimming in garbage, I’d say it’s a good time to take a step back and reset.

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Not So Ancient Chinese Secret

Okay, now you cannibal rapists have had enough fun in the month of July. Prepare to lose your stinkin’ hides in August.

Look at the 1 month returns for some of your favorite Chinese securities.

chi

Now I want you to observe something very simple, yet sophisticated. Since no one on Wall Street was as deranged as me to compile all stocks from China, group them and then name them ‘Chinese Burritos’, I’ve had a unique advantage into the perverted sector and consider myself to be “a foremost expert” in all things orient.
Al

Ladies and gentleman, I give you seasonality statistics for all Chinese burritos, compiled together like 20 migrant workers in a studio apartment.

Chi2

As you can see, historically, July is the best month for these mongrel stocks, whereas August is an entirely different beast. If you’re not careful with these burritos, they’ll blow your penis’s off, or tits, depending on your gender of course. Actually, some of you men might fall victim to both penis and tit removal.

In short, it’s time to sell these stocks and head for the hills (I have no idea where said hills are).

NOTE: I sold out of RKUS.

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I DID IT AGAIN!

When I get behind and idea and obsess over it and buy it all the time, 9 out of 10 times I will be right about that stock and it will go higher. It happened with MVIS from $1.50 to $5. It happened with FTK from $1 to $19. It happened with YELP from $12 to $40. It happened with WNR from $12 to $35. And it’s happening to FRO right now.

There are a million reasons for me to be pissed right now, once of which is that I sold a million shares of FRO at an average cost of $2.20. Also, I knew GNK was set to trailblaze higher, yet I just sat here–like a troll–eating oatmeal and talking to losers on the telephone.

The next time I become obsessed, sort of like how I am now with IMMR, just hold the stock and revisit your position a year later. In order for me to fully maximize my potential, I will need to be cryogenically frozen or induced into a coma for 12 months. I’d do that, but I have kids and I love them to pieces. So, I guess this is my burden to carry, the proverbial cross on my shoulder heading up the hill (extra Jesus).

I will accept this cruel and unusual punishment and continue my work, even though said work does nothing but frustrate me.

Hey, don’t worry, I’ll be back here with new ideas that will go up 200-1,000% and not benefit from any of them.

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New Thesis Idea: Catch the Knife

Have you noticed all of the trash being carried around by distinguished members of Wall St? I just ran a few screens and was shocked to find out that garbage, for lack of a better word, has been the best investment thesis over the past two years. And I’m not talking about the Wayne Huizenga type either.

I remember BODY being dead in the water, single digits, now it boasts twelve.

Want more?

Here, have a looksy.

Trash

 

Look at the one month returns on some of these stocks!

While I rack my brains, trying to play the momo game, shmucks are making a killing buying up trash. There’s an edge to owning dogs into earnings. Since expectations are so low, often times they bounce hard on the smallest notion of positivity.

I took it upon myself to dig, mind you, through the dumpsters and have come up with a list of stocks, befitting for a gentlemen, such as myself.

gents

Observe.

I did the leg work, so that you, the leech, don’t have to. There are 64 stocks in total. They need to be weeded out for red flags.

Dogs1

 

Dogs2

 

PPT users can access information in real time, here. My watchlist is here.

I’m almost sick and tired of chasing stocks. I might just take a break from it and lavish myself in 100% garabagio. I bet it will work out better to boot.

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BREAKING: TIM COOK CONTINUES TO DESTROY THE HOUSE THAT JOBS BUILT

Apple beats by $0.19, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs towards low end of expectations with in-line gross margin  (418.99 -7.32)
Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $7.47 per share, $0.19 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $7.28; revenues rose 0.9% year/year to $35.32 bln vs the $34.91 bln consensus; Q3 gross margin 36.9% vs Street est of 36.6% and 36-37% guidance.

  • 31.2 mln iPhones sold in Q3 vs Street est of ~26 mln
  • 14.6 mln iPads sold in Q3 vs Street est of ~17 mln
  • 3.8 mln Macs sold in Q3 vs Street est of ~4 mln

Co issues guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of $34-37 bln vs. $37.07 bln Capital IQ Consensus; with gross margin 36-37% vs. 36.6% Street est.

Word of advice for Mr. T. Cook: BUILD A BIGGER PHONE. They will come.

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Waiting to Be Cooked

I lost 1.4% today and I missed out on ONVO and GNK. If I didn’t enjoy the eccentricities of life, I’d shoot myself out of a carnival cannon right now. There was at least 20 stocks on my watchlist up more than 7% today. I am missing out on one high flyer after the next.

This all makes for a very depressing situation for me, not to mention the fact that I am stuck in IMMR, an immense position and the volume is dead.

So here we are, waiting for AAPL to report–stupefied by the ineptitude of a certain Tim Cook.

 

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I Feel Myself Getting Cold

I’ve been wanting to buy GNK and CAAS all day, but have held back since they’re both low volume death traps. For the time being, both stocks are climbing and the market looks fine. But what if AAPL throws a grenade for earnings after-hours? What if the market decides to pause? There are so many ifs, not enough red bulls.

Either way, I find myself cold, searching for answers, looking for the truth in a sea of lies.

I am enjoying the pullbacks in both YELP and TRLA and can only wish they both drop 10% from here, so I can get back in. When in doubt about what stocks to buy, I like to default to my favorite story stocks. Otherwise, I’m just trading a bunch of crap, literally hoping and praying for a breakout.

This isn’t a rational way to invest.

The market is flat, but I am down 1.2%. Taking a step back and seeing how far I’ve come over the past 6 weeks, I’d be an idiot to press my luck at a time when I feel like I’ve lost an edge.

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Speaking of which, the other day on twitter, post Davian fraud revelations, I haphazardly intertwixt Tim Sykes with the word fraud. This was an immature act on my behalf and hereby apologize to him for my indiscretion.  Truth be told, it’s very easy to just say things on the internet– without even thinking how it might affect the other person. This coming from me, a person who has banned over 2,000 readers of the site for talking trash, I should know better.

 

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Pulling Back My Horns

I sold out of FWM, USG, EMKR and WIT, raising a significant amount of cash because I’m just not feeling this tape right now. There are demons who are plaguing me, tempting me with visions of grandeur and superfluities.

It’s my job to fight these demons to do what George Costanza would do. If he was in my place, he’d do the opposite.

After my sales, I am now 70% long, looking for opportunities, but on alert for a sharp pullback.

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My Prospects Are Looking Bountiful

First and foremost, my position in CXO is paying off handsomely, right off the bat, allowing an oil man like myself consider expanding into degenerate lottery stocks. Very few of my positions are lower this morning and I do not care about news anymore.

I am sure there’s a reason as to why stocks are up, stemming from some lunatic speech in some idiotic country. But it’s all moot to me now.

As an oil man, all I care about is the prospects of my holdings. I will sell some too early and some too late; but making a profit is all that matters.

A great man once warned against timing tops and declared “I will seize the fat middle, every single time.” When reviewing my trades and wondering why in the world I sold so early, I am reminded by this piece of advice and feel grateful that I am so profitable this year.

Looking over the market I see that FIRE was acquired by CSCO and boat stocks are ripping again. If I miss GNK on the upswing, I doubt that I could ever forgive myself. I am now stuck between greed and fear, cognizant that both cannot exist at the same time if I am to be successful.

At the moment, I am sizing up the tape, contemplating putting on more risk or removing it.

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