With the SPY +3.8% for the month of October, I think we can rule out a seasonal fall calamity. The last time the SPY went up 3% or more, during October, was in 2010, 2006 and 2003. After a strong October, the SPY traded flat in 2010 at 0.0%, up 1.98% in 2006 and up 1.1% in 2003 in the month of November.
HOWEVER, in December the mood turned quasi-pornographic, with +5.03% in 2003, +1.34% in 2006 and an outrageous 6.68% in 2010.
In other words, based on recent historical factors, the market is only getting warmed up now, setting up for a rather libertine end to 2013.