iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,230 Blog Posts

RATES WILL GO BACK DOWN

This is going to be the easiest trade of my career. You fatalist bozos out there are convinced because the Fed said they might stop plopping $85 billion per month into the bond market, that means they will begin selling their bonds. You are entirely retarded, full bananas.

By purposefully sending rates higher, the  entire country will be destroyed (awkward pause).

————————————————————————————————————————-

I wish this blog was still a rated X venue, so that I could properly lecture you about how stupid you are for believing TBT is a long term investment.

Over the past 6 months, REITs and a slew of closed end funds have been dismantled. These are, traditionally, the safest investments for a long term oriented investor.

This is what is going to happen.

Rates will remain low, for infinity. Whoever sold short bonds this month, eagerly awaiting to be rewarded via Armageddon, will be ramrodded into a ‘fag box.’ All of the REITs and bonds that traded lower will rally, alongside stocks. A great giant reflation of bond prices awaits, because the fix has always been in and the United States of America is about to finance another war.

Closed End funds down more than 15%, over the past 6 months

GHI

BBF

EIM

NMO

PTY

MVF

MNE

REITs down more than 20%, over the past 6 months

ARR

JMI

CYS

ACRE

ANH

UHT

MITT

AGNC

ACC

I am sure many of you pole grabbers will take the other side of this trade. I am so convinced about the prospects of REITs, I’ve begun buying calls on IYR and have plans to accumulate a handful of these stocks, into weakness.

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30 comments

  1. john

    I agree and am waiting to get into TLT calls. I don’t play options often but I feel this could be a big win over the next few months if timed correctly. Thoughts?

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  2. matt_bear

    what about NLY? I bought a bunch sub 11 last week.

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  3. xxxHuggieBearxxx

    Futures are up on war fears. Trade in play now is all about the war trade. Need a warmonger screen in the PPT.

    HOOK IT UP FLY!

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  4. Drake sucks

    It’s our patriotic duty to lower rates and help the troops, er drones, kill brown people (no Xenophobia).

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  5. Cryptic CodeBreaker
    Cryptic CodeBreaker

    What a racist comment! Why, our Tomahawks will kill all persons of any race or creed! Don’t Fuck with the U.S. fuckin diaper heads.

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  6. Cryptic CodeBreaker
    Cryptic CodeBreaker

    Umm diaper heads could be any color. If you wear a diaper on your head look out for drones pal!

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  7. Cascadian

    If money is not free it should at least be cheap..

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  8. Cryptic CodeBreaker
    Cryptic CodeBreaker

    Our weapons do not discriminate ! Not like that PLO surplus scud crap! You see this is what separates us from the terrorist scm

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  9. The Fly

    I’ve reported all of you to your local magistrates for immediate detention.

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  10. hohmanf

    Mitt

    CEO been buying

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  11. hohmanf

    MITT

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  12. Trading_Nymph

    10 year got a bit of pull back on Friday when housing data missed and Stupid rumors of Jackson Hole were flying around. But bottomline, the 10 year held that sweet over 2.75% level. Well Jackson Hole is done and Fed Heads were talking about how they don’t focus in on the EM when they talk about tapering..so it’s coming. Kuroda didn’t give out anymore Cocaine, just talking about all the Cocaine he has already given. I know Bill Gross is hoping the Fly is right,cuz he is in pain. But, imho..we won’t be moving in either direction fast until NFP post..and we should start to see a little testing of the upside soon after Asian session wraps up.

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  13. Clock (the thinker)
    Clock (the thinker)

    RATES WILL GO BACK DOWN (and then they will go back up 😀 )

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  14. Clock (the thinker)
    Clock (the thinker)

    REN,INTC …for short term trade

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  15. Felix

    Paul Craig Roberts agrees with you Fly. Pick it up from about 2:40 http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=fRlFjt-VkU8#t=460

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  16. Felix

    What happened about the logo thing?

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  17. Chris C

    I like the contrarian thoughts and agree on the rate projection. What strike and time horizon are you playing with IYR?

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    • Caveman

      Dr. Fly,

      I’m wondering the same thing, what month for the IYR options?

      Hopefully it’s like the CXO options, my biggest winner of the year!

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  18. ripper

    maybe rates won’t go up in the near future, but likely they will be higher at the end of the decade.

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  19. JTU

    AGU, POT and MOS should all go up today based on CEO of Russia’s Uralkali being detained due to abuse of office.
    Uralkali said July 30 it decided to end output restrictions that underpinned world prices and halt exports through BPC, as the venture’s known. Plans to ramp up to full capacity may see prices sink below $300 a metric ton, from about $400 now, according to the company at the time. BPC and Belaruskali don’t support Uralkali’s new strategy and don’t agree with the price scenario, Belaruskali CEO Valery Kirienko said on Aug 19.

    Belarus is seeking to arrest four other BPC employees and board members, including Oleg Petrov, through Interpol, Traulko said. Petrov is Uralkali’s director for marketing and sales as well as a BPC director.

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  20. Dan Keyser

    Yea what happened to that garbage logo contest, this site has fallen out of my top ten bc it is very ratch

    DK

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  21. Jules

    Fly thoughts on CCI or AMT. The towers have pulled back substantially.

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  22. TheHarper

    buy $PMT best hybrid mortgage REIT out there.

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  23. Mcgeezy

    yes its done pretty well this year

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  24. Hollywood Dan Keyser
    Hollywood Dan Keyser

    Trying to decide who is more dehydrated between Jules and The Harper is very difficult.

    HDK

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  25. Jules

    Is it now…

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