This is high season for speculation. Everyone is a perverted circle jerker, clamoring for the next pick. We all need new patio furniture and a 2014 Benz. There is nothing that can hold stocks down.
Let me run through some back of the envelope numbers for you, as we enter the “multiple expansion” phase of this rally.
-72% of companies in the SPY beat earnings expectations.
-Earnings for 2014 are expected to come in around $123.
-The median PE multiple for the past 30 years is around 15x.
-Assuming companies will meet expectations and not smash them, the SPY should trade up to a minimum of 1,845.
-Considering the zero interest rate policy and assumed economic recovery, led by housing, including the fact that $123 in earnings is too low of a number, let’s assume the market trades up to 16x eps.
With all that said, based upon historical precedent, the market has another 17% of potential upside before the year ends–effectively putting the Dow at around 18,000.
The gimp is out and he is playing.
Top picks: YGE, FRO, ARG
UPDATE: I bought JIVE–because it’s going higher.
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How much in cash are you right now?
Millions, homie
Very little, less than 5%
Still… Millions
You should be margined 100% and long everything then Fly based on your analysis LOL
as in what percent of investments are cash?
balls
Does the Devil still have any interest in CALL?
I know he sold it last week, but is he looking to get back in?
Thanks!
He’s out
Senor’s specialty. If you only traded short squeezes and garbargio markets you’d print triple digits every year.
But of course the readership demands content each and everyday regardless of what kind of market we have.
But how do people buy their Benzes and such if they never ever sell?
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English!!!
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To avoid lawsuit for using Fly in my name, I’ve changed my name from money McFly to Money McDude
FNMA doubled in less than month.
YOKU gets upgraded and goes down 10 %
GTAT another new recent high above 4.50
SCTY up 26 % today.
UNXL down 22 % today.
JRCC up 12 %
SWC up 7 %
XONE up 7 1/2 %
Have a nice day at the casino.
1666 on the S & P !
1000 points above the March 2009 low !
LMFAO !
Has anyone looked at the Slope of Hope site lately?
I have no use for the content but the new design is slick
But the Gimp is sleeping.
DUST baby! what a day….. oh boy 🙂
Hi Fly,
What book are you reading now?
nothing right now
Fly’s NIHD had a nice move today … Still in it?
out
Obama deserves an 18 multiple.
He’s the greatest economic president of all time.
Funny how Maria seems pissed the market keeps rising without Romney … Hahaha!
Do you really not think this is engineered?
You are all being led to slaughter. By you,
citizens, traders, foreign, world. (This is
an intellectual argument, not permabear)
Do you not think you are being led into the
next bubble? Does that not insult your
intelligence?
It is so obvious the control they have. They.
Yes, they. It doesn’t matter who they are,
control is obvious.
1666
I’m aware. Are you.
It’s a bull market you know…. oh wait, you don’t .. sad
Oh wait. I said nothing about bull/bear market.
Ya’ll partying like it’s 1999?
You are a useful idiot. so sad
Dr Funk-
Would you like to share your thesis with us?
Didn’t mean to name call. Traders here are very good.
The bigger picture, so to speak my focus. yes, bubble blah blah blah. (kind of odd, when rational thought, is perceived irrational, might something not be wrong…)
3 of 4 or 4 of 4 biggest economies, moving stock markets without growth some cases contraction. I do want crash/depression, I will admit. So that the next generation, and my generation, can start again with a clean system, less greed. Greed dissipating after prolonged depression. But you know what, whether purposefully or not one can’t argue against, at the very least, that being a potential scenario, with what is occuring, right now
Dr Funk- Consider that the crash/depression may occur, but for the middle and lower economic classes, not the wealthy. Stocks and real estate may remain elevated while this happens. That is, your view may play out, but not in the obvious way.
Someone is manipulating this market higher? Someone more powerful than the market as a whole? It must be God.
If you watched the last 15 seconds you could almost feel human intervention. A number like 1666, has significance. Can’t avoid it. You want to call it coincidence, well your choice.
Steady move up starting 2pm, with no impetus, when flat the previous 3 hours, reaching that level for the last 1/2 hour. 3:59:50 over 1667, 3:59:55 just under 1665 almost like an overshoot was realized, bumped up just over 1666 last couple seconds.
Not calling conspiracy. I don’t know. Just apparent. Not going to pretend it’s not happening. Ask yourself if control of that degree is being achieved. What would they be doing. Why would they be doing it. I’ve drawn some conclusions. Just ask questions.
I am annoyed by NBG …. really annoyed lol
Apple and Bank earnings will decline and are overstated so this rally will end quickly with Hedge funds stealing from the clueless retail bagholders. Its party like its 1999 and waiting for the music to stop.
$120 EPS?
Good luck with that number considering downgrades already running 4-1 vs upgrades
Fundamentals and this market parted ways some time ago
This ain’t 1999
It’s 1985 or 1995 take your pic.
One day a baby black swan will knock us down 10%, but no one can predict the arrival, so just do another line of Ben’s cocaine and party on.
Dude, THIS is the black swan. Hasn’t it been?
Perfect title.
Just a comment:
It’s mind blowing how the central banks have pumped stocks and real estate, and smacked down gold and silver, with superb execution and brutal stamina.
Really well done. What a “pimp hand” as they say.
It ain’t over till the fat lady sings.