iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
17,003 Blog Posts

The Collapse in Gold Was Only the Appetizer

Don’t believe for a second the drop in gold and silver were isolated events. As a matter of fact, it’s all tied into a single thesis, all to do with liquidations and the reemergence of risk off.

Oil will follow, luring people back into the fold due to a reduction in “input costs.” However, what they won’t realize straight away is the municipal dependence upon gasoline taxes and how lower gas prices is onerous for many state across the country.

There are beneficiaries.

Look at the shippers, companies like FRO are plagued by fuel costs–which comprise 67% of their expenses. If one could surmise a few simple points, they may start to believe that a company like FRO will benefit from sharply lower fuel costs.

But the shippers are not a short term play, as it needs to undergo restructuring in order to heal.

Be wary of the fast money trades, picking the depressed “for a trade.” Sometimes those trades end up becoming an albatross, something you will regret with every fiber of your existence–shortly thereafter.

“The Fly” will continue to wait out the tape in search for reasonable discounts. At these levels, following a mini-pullback, I do not feel a sense of urgency to jump into the fray.

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23 comments

  1. Freddy Fishsticks
    Freddy Fishsticks

    If fuel drops by $1, yes, the gov’t doesn’t get it’s explicit fuel tax on that $1. However it gets the income tax on that extra $1 of profitability for the company that uses fuel as an input. Or, the sales tax on the extra goods purchased with the newfound disposable income of Johnny Bag-o-donuts.

    Effectively this is the same right-vs-left argument we see unfold in taxation debates. The right believes in a follow-on benefit of lower explicit upfront tax receipts, the left doesn’t. I personally, in both that debate and the fuel conversation above, believe that it’s a net positive to gov’t coffers to let the money work privately as long as possible before they take their share.

    Also, Frontline hedges their fuel exposure.

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  2. JakeGint

    So… you do believe it was over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor, eh?
    ________

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    • Marc David

      I’d like your thoughts on AG … Mr Gint.

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      • JakeGint

        Wait for a break o’ $12 and a retest of that level. They could be getting a reserve chop sell off here.

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        • flyaway18

          What is a reserve chop sell off

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          • JakeGint

            There have been rumors that the change in pricing may have an effect on how various miners account for their available reserves. If the POS is too low, then saleable reserves are going to be a smaller #.

            _________

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  3. flyaway18

    Here we go, finally.

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  4. MrPartridge

    test this BS lol

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    • flyaway18

      lol, I’m blocked at work though – they have banned all social networking sites lol

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      • MrPartridge

        Your work is anti-social… I think Dr should expect 50% drop in comments …

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        • flyaway18

          Now it appears they have removed Disqus lol…We should get free t-shirts from Le Fly for going above and beyond the call of duty to post through this thread!

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          • flyaway18

            Tell you what, I hope they get those bastards who set those bombs off at the marathon Monday. That was so cowardly. Kass had some good pics from photos that were being distributed aroudn the web. The 8-year-old boy who died, you can see him sitting on top of his dad’s shoulders. I hope those guys die before they ever see the inside of a courthouse.

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  5. Denizen

    Recently CA, cut the sales tax on gas but raised the excise tax. So if the price falls, CA is making much the same.

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  6. John McAfee

    US diesel demand allegedly jumped last month. My sources call bullshit and the price calls bullshit. Why take a chance getting long here? Don’t be a degenerate.

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  7. Po Pimp

    Not polite. Not polite at all.

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  8. iflyjetzzz

    “However, what they won’t realize straight away is the municipal dependence upon gasoline taxes and how lower gas prices is onerous for many state across the country.”

    Gasoline taxes are based on gallons sold, not the dollar cost of gas. So one could reasonably expect increased gasoline consumption with a drop in prices, which would increase federal/state/municipal gas tax receipts.

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    • The Fly

      Not true. I’ve done the research, maybe you should too.

      Some states base it on per gallon, others by receipts, like Connecticut.

      Come on. Please.

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      • iflyjetzzz

        States that fully or partially apply general sales taxes to gasoline: CA, CT, GA, IL, IN, MI, NY. Every other state taxes per gallon.

        CT taxes both 25 cents per gallon and also has a wholesale tax of 7.53% of wholesale gasoline prices. However, the wholesale tax is capped when wholesale gasoline prices are above $3/gallon. So as wholesale prices fall below $3/gallon, CT will see an immediate increase in tax receipts.
        http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/story?section=resources/traffic&id=8604223

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  9. pedro

    The turrets must be unmanned at this late hour.

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  10. min lev

    fr Rick Rule re his friend in Hong Kong:

    “I’ve been taking this opportunity to stock up on some yellow metal. Went to Hang Seng bullion counter yesterday. The line was out the door. It took an hour wait to see a teller. When I asked if people were buying in the dip or selling in panic, she told me that they haven’t had once ounce of gold sold back to them all day. She told me they have sold more gold in 24 hrs than they normally do in 3 months. Yes, there was a lot of extra security. The guy in front of me bought over $1 million in gold. He paid in cash and walked out of the door with the (gold) bullion in a nike bag. Amazing.”

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  11. Y8 Mario Games

    I drop a leave a response when I especially enjoy a article on a
    blog or I have something to add to the conversation.
    It’s caused by the passion displayed in the article I looked at. And after this post The Collapse in Gold Was Only the Appetizer | Stock Picks and Discussion at iBankCoin | The Fly. I was actually excited enough to post a thought 😉 I do have 2 questions for you if it’s okay.
    Is it just me or does it look like some of the responses
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  12. Calvin Worsell

    An appetizer is a small first course of an overall meal. Common examples include: shrimp cocktail, calamari, salad, potato skins, mussels, bruschetta or cheese and crackers. An appetizer may also be very elegant in some restaurants…–*

    Good day to you
    <http://www.picturesofherpes.co/

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