JCP debt starts to get scary in 2017, with $285 million due and no way to pay it, according to recent trends. Based on the current burn rate, ALL of JCPs cash will be gone in 2013, which will force them to tap their credit facility. The market will be sure to freak out if that happens. As you can see, the holders of JCP debt are already hitting the exits, with the 2017’s now @11.39%, yield to worst.
As for JCP CDS, they are now above 1,000.
As for the stock: I expect funds like Glenview Capital to liquidate their positions, since they were most likely copy catting Pershing Square anyway and retail doesn’t seem to be central to their funds theme.
The restructuring isn’t working and Ron Johnson needs to go. The best thing the board can do now is to fire Johnson, get a lift in the stock, and issue a massively dilutive secondary to help finance this train wreck through 2015.
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Fly too late to initiate a short?
Hard for me to give a recommendation, but I am not covering.
I understand. I think I’ll sit out.
Buy the bonds/short the shares?
Maybe the near dated bonds. But if JCP goes belly up, the bonds are unsecured.
Put an AAPL kiosk in JCP stores with a Starbucks /McDonald’s.
Hell of a lot better idea than opening day care centers and internet hotspots for women that don’t need them.
The JCP flyer for March’s women’s clothes arrived at our house this week. Truly hideous designs to my eyes. Clearly targeted to a very different clientele than the people that used to shop at JCP. I believe JCP has problems that run very deep, beyond the CEO.
I’m shopping, not at JCP, for some insurance – black swan insurance. Thinking of FOOTM options. Thoughts?
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