Wednesday, December 7, 2016
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
14,855 Blog Posts

Damn It: Fundamentals Got in the Way Again

ISM numbers were horrendous, so stocks sold off–now everyone is worried about The Fiscal Cliff again. I swear the market wanted to roar this morning, when the futures were +7.

I’m getting lit in VHC and SWHC, but nothing too serious. They both trade weird and have longer term stories to the names, so the short term aberrations need to be taken with a grain of salt. With VHC, I cannot think of a reason why any short seller would want to have exposure to the stock ahead of the court date with Judge Davis and AAPL. Many believe some sort of settlement will be hammered out by then, effectively opening the floodgates to future licensing deals with a wide array of players. If that happens, shorts will regret the day they were born.

SWHC is a play on the 2nd amendment, which many feel could be at risk in two years. Because of that fear, people are stockpiling guns. Go look at the data, it screams of panic-impulse buying. Like any retail stock that has a product that is in heavy demand, SWHC and RGR should reap the rewards through superb quarterly reports.

YELP is ripping again. I kind of regret not buying it at $17. The risk with the stock lies with its valuation, trading 9x sales. It is priced as if someone is going to acquire them, which makes sense for a number of players out there. However, can the company ramp up earnings before that happens, to support this valuation? That is a the billion dollar question.

Lastly, I am long EXK because during the debt ceiling crisis, gold and silver ramped. It’s my belief that the same will happen once we dive off the fiscal cliff.

NOTE: I am still 30% cash.

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  1. Obummer gonna win

    EXK is junk. YELP is crap, as you said. I like VHC and SWHC.

    You will make money as always.

    • The Fly

      I agree with you that exk is crap, but it’s just a trade. It correlates very well with silver and I’ve never lost money trading it, in more than 10 sep trades.

  2. Jackass

    If aapl is 33% of GDP growth do you think the Gov. Will do anything to fuck them up?

  3. republicat

    The RepubliCat is no pussy, blogging to give us all a chance to watch and join a solid looking prospect.

    The highly profitable and rapidly growing mobile anti-virus provider $AVG.

  4. bobbin4apples

    Fly, have you tried talking with gun shops about agenda 21 in relation to your SWHC play. The owner I talked with said the hammer was going to drop in Jan. And its going to get really nasty in 2014.

    • The Eye-Talian Stallion
      The Eye-Talian Stallion

      The Gun Shop Owner is full of shit, he just wants to make a sale, kind of like the car dealer who feeds the line “We won’t be getting anymore of these in, so you need to get it NOW.”

      This is still Merica and so guns and ammo will continue to flow as freely as water.

      Having said that, as soon as President 54 Trees signs an executive order banning assault rifles, high cap mags and handguns, the mad dash to buy is on. Make your plans accordingly.