Saturday, December 10, 2016
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
14,876 Blog Posts

Are You Prepared For Lower Prices?

The wheels are about to fall off of this market. I see you sitting there in that garbage man’s chair from SPLS, thinking, “aww come on Fly, the market is gonna go up. Cocaine gorillas in the mist.”

Wrong fucked face.

The market isn’t going to “go up” because it’s heading down.

Fly, 2012

I’ve seen the future and there are lower stock prices in it. The republicans have nothing to lose but the legacy and job approval rating of their sitting President. We are going OVER the fiscal cliff, AND MORE. You wait and see. It’s going to be a shit show. Not only that, the elections are over and earnings season was for shit. The Fed is going to ease up on the gas because Obama is already in. Why exert themselves, now that their jobs are secure?

I kid you not, but it’s entirely possible that we can be entering an irreversible downtrend, one that will sting for decades. I am talking about 4,000 points lower from here, based upon a mandatory compression in price earnings multiples as taxes rise.

Knowing the Fed likes to keep things calm, it’s also very possible that none of these crazy, half-cocked, ideas pan out– but they should. That’s what’s important to remember: the fundamentals. We deserve to go lower. Everyone knows it. Yet here were are, hanging in the 12,000’s and people are bitching and moaning. YOU THINK THIS IS HARD? YOU DON’T KNOW WHAT PAIN IS.

Pain is 1997, 1998, 2001 and 2008. Prepare for more pain, immediately.

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  1. mallefan4life

    Who is this nut?

  2. Frog

    Just another entertainer getting all worked up over nothing, for the viewing pleasure of those who are addicted to excitement & to their own adrenalin.

  3. Trading_Nymph

    I am so ready for lower prices.

    • BobbyBoucher

      You and me bof (sic)

      • inandout

        The Big double top figure of 1370.60 from 2007 is my pivot point short right below stop to cover right above, long right above stop right below scaling in and out. For longer term trades to give it a little room 1360.98 support from 2006 is what i’m using.
        It looks like a top is forming to me , but I don’t like to be fooled so i’ll stick with those figures and trade often.

        • inandout

          1374.50/1365.50 for S&P E Minis if you happen to trade them

        • Trading_Nymph

          Bobby, We just have to be careful about those darn clams, hey EU is delaying the approval of Greek money..fwiw…tonight……Inandout, I have a Nymph Version of Fibo, there is a little support in the 1365ish range..but all of this is so airy, we can fall fast and hard to 1260ish..Europe GDP data later this week..could get wild, I hope.

  4. surplusdroids

    If Dick Fuld is secretary of the treasury..Can you find a spot for Lou Ranieri? Lou rocks.

  5. republicat

    1997 – internet trading had just started, many online brokers froze, up folks could not buy into the sell off.

    1998 – possibly the greatest spike rally in the history of man as Greenspan, who was called
    Maestro and could get more chicks that Petraeus, slashed rates; which were NOT at zero.

    2001 – long, tricky, I lost blood.
    What a awful slow grind into late 2002.

    2008 – quick, brutal, but today I rest at night knowing I have the PPT and iBankCoin to guide me through the coming space alien bear attack.

  6. BottleRocket

    Finally some common sense. We should have been all year where we are going over the next few weeks. To revisit the Nov 2011 levels before they cheated the market all the way the fuck up to 1456. We are going to 1160.

  7. Marc David

    If you think we are going 4k lower.. why not bust out Horatio and short this bitch!

    Or are you saying.. you would except the Fed intervention makes that too risky and an unknown that messes with a real free market?

    Maybe being in 60% cash is a way or “shorting’ without actually using those freaking bullshit ETFs.

  8. Ottnott

    Alex Jones is inside the bubble. is inside the bubble. Fly is in the bubble, to my dismay. Outside lies reality.

    If you were shocked by the election results, you need to dump the inside-the-bubble info sources and join reality on the outside.

    • Jakegint

      Those who had faith in their fellow men were surprised by the election results.

      Those who play a part in engineering Idiocracy (and who knows, Alex Jones may be one), expected these results.



      • Jakegint

        I would love an explanation for the Warren win, from a Dem apologist like Ottnott.

        What am I to draw from this result? Is the Massachusetts polity (the majority, I mean) wholly amoral?

        A bag of hammers?



        • The Eye-Talian Stallion
          The Eye-Talian Stallion

          With all respect, quit gnashing your teeth. Once you accept the fact that America is dead you will be able to think more clearly and then profit from it. It’s all about you and your family, don’t waste your breath on anything else.

        • ottnott

          Too many MA voters living outside the bubble.

          Holly Solomon lives inside the bubble:
          A Mesa man is in critical condition after his wife ran over him with her Jeep because she was upset he didn’t vote in the presidential election and feared her family would suffer with President Obama’s re-election, Gilbert police said Monday.
          Holly Solomon, 28, was arrested about 10 a.m. Saturday after she chased her husband Daniel Solomon, 36, in a parking lot on Gilbert Road near Vaughn Avenue, police said.
          Gilbert police spokesman Sgt. Jesse Sanger said Holly Solomon started arguing with her husband because she “believed her family was going to face hardship” as a result of Obama’s re-election.
          The victim tried hiding behind a light pole, Sanger said, while his wife “drove around the pole numerous times while continuing to yell at him.”
          The victim eventually started running toward the road but was struck by the Jeep and pinned beneath the vehicle and the curb, Sanger said.
          Sanger said there was no indication that Holly Solomon was impaired by drugs or alcohol and said her husband is in critical condition at Scottsdale Healthcare Osborn Medical center.
          She was booked into jail on domestic violence charges.

  9. Heaterman

    Speaking of wheels coming off, it seems that the market is not the only thing which may sustain belly sliding on the gravel. 20 states have now posted requests for secession from the USofA. Some of them actually getting close to the required amount to mandate an official government response. There is a large percentage of the population that is righteously pissed off at the moment. If I had to guess, it is the percentage that owns firearms in quantity.

    Thinking about how ugly the situation could get pains me so I’m going to bed. Still though, I wonder just what the catalyst might be that would precipitate an “event”.

  10. 'merica

    I think we shit the bed until the new year, then “The” Bernanke kicks everybody upside their stupid head when they start to get comfortable.

    Can I get a PPT subscription? This is America Gal damnit, give me! Why should all these other jackasses get PPT while I get NOTHING?! They don’t deserve it! It is not fair!

  11. poly

    You have become my favorite contrarian tell, thank you for this. We are of course headed down but not before a nice counter rally to shake all of the suddenly enthusiastic shorts out.

  12. mad_scientist

    “The republicans have nothing to lose but the legacy and job approval rating of their sitting President.”

    Logically, that would make sense, but the republicans in power are frauds who are in it for themselves, and for example Boehner has already indicated that he will be using Obama’s win as a mandate to give the dem’s what they want.

  13. JV

    It’s a WMT chair – w/built-in vibrator. Any direction provides a trade opportunity. Now let’s all muddle off the Norquist cliff. * kicks can – enjoys drama *

  14. david

    Will you trade this thesis ?

  15. V

    whats your TOP SHORT, Le Fly?

  16. jimmy_two_times

    Really think the Republicans will push it over the edge?

    What about pushing to 11th hour, shaek out the weak hands from the market then rally in to Xmas? with all bets off in 2013.

  17. Sspiff

    I have retreated to the last bastion of capitalism, thats right, Shanghai. I will remain here and sulk till my OSC proof bunker in the rockies is prepared.

  18. TMoe

    WFT misses numbers. Gonna get hammered at open.
    Oil Services missing numbers by that much? somethin may be a brewin

  19. JR

    As for fiscal cliffdiving…not so sure based on Obama maneuvering and triangulation re: Keystone. If he greenlights the pipeline, he will have put Republicans in the unenviable position of being the fucking grinches who stole Xmas (can America afford a lump of coal for our annual consumer festivus?) after they seemingly compromised (which is disingenuous bullshit and everyone knows it).

    I think Republicans pick their battles and draw the battle lines somewhere else. Perhaps on immigration? Hard to say but I think they band-aid this over for the time being and we briefly see new highs before plumbing the depths of hell a bit later. Just my .02