Accept these ebullient days as small tokens from the Gods. Often times, the market is an unforgiving bitch. But it’s days like this that make it entirely worthwhile and keep brainiacs like me in this racket. Sure, I could quit today and start my very own late night television show; but I’d rather sit in my office and talk shit to total strangers, threatening them with mortal combat and things of that nature.
“The Fly” doesn’t sell out and he never buckles under pressure.
Having said that, I would not blame any of you if you sold a few shares and took the summer off to enjoy life. The market will be here in the fall, ready to decapitate unsuspecting travelers amidst grave news of Obamanomics, round two. Despite the many pressures to sell and unwind, I’ve opted for the “black flag” approach to trading, whereby I only relent punching my enemy in the face when his life has capitulated from existing in this realm.
My cash position is just north of 25% and I live for short squeezes. Literally, I live to apply pressure to people who make it a priority to bet against stocks. I don’t know why, frankly. Perhaps I was genetically altered in the womb to seek out and destroy stock market plungers. Either way, I am quite pleased to see my accounts at new all time highs.
I just sold out of ZNGA because I have no room for losers. I am in CMI, big, for the $100 roll and own an insanely large position in YELP. It happens to be my largest position ever, thanks to the recent surge. Any sane man would opt to reduce the position, for the sake of risk management. I, on the other hand, do not consider myself to be sane and therefore am excluded from such particulars.
As an aside, does anyone else find it absurdly humorous that David Einhorn enjoys to play in the WSOP tournament, fleecing millions from unsuspecting and desperate gamblers? It’s really unfair to have a billionaire star in money management delving into degenerate poker tournaments.
Lastly, there are droughts all over the country, fucking farmers where the sun doesn’t shine. Based upon the laws of nature, expect that to translate into higher food commodity prices, buoying the shares of ag stocks like MOS, POT, LNN and VMI. Although I do not own a position in LNN or VMI, I love the fact that they specialize in irrigation systems. Something tells me those asshat farmers are going to be interested in such systems, as the earth dries up beneath their boots and dust bowls develop and swallow their homes with dirt.
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All time highs. Nice.
“do not consider myself to be sane”
You got that part right. 50%+ gains in YELP in 3 days back in late March. Then let those gains evaporate and turn into 30% (give or take) losses. And now claiming victory once again.
Claiming victory because it is a fact, whereby you get to claim precisely nothing.
Mr. Fly,
I am involved with farmers throughout the SE US. They are expanding irrigation as fast as possible, as many are cash rich from high commodity prices. Valley pivots are going up in full force, with most attempting to expand irrigation to 70% or better of their land. Whether or not VMI is a good buy is your call, but the demand is certainly apparent from my side of the biz.
Ciao!
Thanks corn fucker.
Ditto here in Michigan. They can’t keep up with demand.
Einhorn is playing very timidly. If he would show even the slightest bit of aggression, he could steal many pots. His net worth should be a huge advantage, but he is actually showing himself to be more of a greenhorn than an Einhorn. That is all!™
Wonder if that changes now that he is on the final table? Looked to me like he was employing conservative risk management to get to the final table. It worked, now it’s time for hard core game theory to kick in, which should throw those fuckers for a loop.
“Ciao” – the most annoying form of goodbye.
Einhorn decides to slum it @ WSOP, steal their money and give it ALL to charity. Funny as shit and sure to piss off the professional degenerates when other hedge fund managers decide to pile in next year due to their oversided competitive egos leaving the real degenerates out of biz. Largest pot in WSOP history (first Platinum Bracelet).
Alvari, the reason why the pros were willing to cough up 1million buy-in was to play against guys like Einhorn. It is a dream setup for a pro and big time +EV. At this point every pro at the table is on a freeroll. Trickett is boss at high roller tourneys with an insane 2 year run.
What is your opinion of Einhorn Dr. Fly? Would you invite the man into your home for a beverage in the study?
I think he is great, but would not be surprised to find out he was a serial killer either.
I saw Dave the other day, he was jogging in his Mets T-shirt and gave me the “sup bro” nod. I stared.
Happy 4th Fly. Have a few sips of wine to tamp down that anger. You have really been extra pissed off lately.
Who needs YELP when soon we will all just sit at home printing burritos? http://burritob0t.com/
But who will rate the burrito printers? We’re too poor to buy them all!
Lower highs for minor-major minor-intermediate wave
Volatility should be bought, now
Got stopped TVIX @ 4.75 yesterday. Bought back @ 4 today
TVIX in the 3-6 range is admittedly pathetic.
However this bear manages risk
“Volatility should be bought, now.”
Way ahead of you on that. Small positions in TVIX (cost basis $7.64) and UVXY (cost basis $12.28). Luckily, I’m also long some TNA calls, TNA shares, AGQ shares and UCO shares that will offset my paper losses in TVIX and UVXY if I had to sell my long vol shares today. But I’m not selling my long vol shares. I’m staying with my shares in TVIX and UVXY only because when $VIX does break out the moves in TVIX and UVXY from their current prices will be several hundred %.
Getting tempted to average down my UVXY cost basis but will wait until $VIX is below $15. When I do start adding UVXY it will, as before, be in very small increments over an extended time period.
No way Draghi has something big up his sleeve. The shorts will drive this rally well into the 1400’s if he announces something substantial. I don’t expect much more for the month of July.
Patrick, Watching the last Press Conf of ECB meeting, I really got the take that Mario D was saying “hey you fuck heads, I gave you LTRO one and two and it didn’t do shit, go fix your own problems and leave me alone”…but, besides that…here is my take on the possible outcomes on Thru..
1. ECB cuts rates to almost zero and BoE adds QE, Iran keeps threatening to block strait and no further talks are sceduled…Market rally like crazy, eur/usd could see 1.3000 again.
2. ECB stays on hold and BoE adds QE, Iran on backburner…a lot of the BoE QE has been talked about and could be priced into the market last Friday with the EU rally we had. Market could start to fade the news.’
3. ECB stays on hold and Merv King fails again (like last month) to get the votes to add QE, Iran backs off over fear that China won’t buy from them over this tanker issue. Eur/USD should retest 1.2400…and SPX 1290ish. Watching the NYSE advance-decline volume, market would most favor this path. Yet, QE esp Number One Senerio could break all rules of logic which we saw in 2010
So far the low level talks with Iran are going good and it looks like they may follow the Russian Plan.
The China/ Iran Tanker problem wth getting insurance… http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-rt-us-china-iran-oilbre8620im-20120703,0,6195987.story
Middle east will blow up eventually but hard to time that event. I expect the ECB to do something but it may not be enough.
In what way did the middle east not already blow up? The “arab spring” is a euphemism for widespread rebellion and chaotic military upheavel.
I call bullshit but glad you brought it up. Iranians will never agree to anything, with anyone. They will say enough to keep out of Obama/Romney rhetoric and avoid Israeli ire, then backpedal. It will go on for years…
I really thought that the July 1 embargo would be put off, Iran takes Greeces credit (very few others do). They set a low level meeting on July 3 of the engineers from Iran/EU to talk and try to come up with something. On July 1 I and us Bears had to deal with Iran going all Rambo (which doesn’t help talks at all). Subcom, Iran will agree with someone..the Govt that is holding their Fiscal Lease, Pimp Daddy China. China got a 6 month cont to buy oil from Iran so everyone was happy. BUT, this Tanker Insurance is messing things up (or maybe China knows that they can panic Iran and get the Oil even cheaper????). Either way, Iran is playing nice tonight..and when Iran plays nice, Brent Fades and everyone starts to question why we have such historical highs of Oil in storage.
Sheriff Taylor.. RIP playa
Last month Goober, this month Andy, next month …….. Floyd.
http://youtu.be/7w0l15x-f6g
Going with the bratwurst bbq on flag day. Strictly non flammable non air borne fireworks. In a pathetic attempt not to get fucked by a eurotard. Nervous but thinking nice things about everything everywhere.
lol FLY u dont understand the nature of poker….like the stock market its a game of skill.
Recipe for disaster: http://news.yahoo.com/french-budget-adds-7-billion-euros-taxes-rich-100603279–business.html These dumb mf’s are so ignorant. This kind of thing leads to capital flight, brain drain and business drain eventually leading to a downward spiral in business activity, tax revenues and eventually la revolucion. [sic]
Unfortunately, the same is being done here in the US.
On an unrelated but oddly related note [sic] I heard that the Germans will leave the Euro before the Greeks. I don’t know if it makes sense but food for thought. Happy 4th!
Let’s hope these rich tax dodgers flee the country.
Eliminate the problem of having to chop off their fuckin’ heads.
Anyone capable of thinking past Joey Chestnut and Sonya “The Black Widow Thomas and their weiner war competition would be well advised to read Tyler Durden’s Zero Hedge piece today. Repeat, well advised.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/americas-dependence-day