My position, as always, is for the status quo to succeed in fucking the world until armed revolt kicks them out. You’re never going to supplant the power elite through the ballot box. The fix is in.
Having said that, unless “they” want the euro to collapse, I don’t see how the Greek elections will change anything. The conservative party will win and markets will love it.
But how do we trade it?
If you are short ahead of this news, expect to lose a great deal of money next week. The amount of Rick Santellis in this tape is amazing. Following last week’s melt up, their tiny portfolios are in a very fragile/weazened state. The shorts will capitulate, if we trend higher next week.
But I want to sell the news.
If we leg up next week, I want to be a seller ahead of the Fed meeting. If the euro is “saved”, there is a chance the Fed will do nothing, even though they’d be stupid not to. Nevertheless, if I can get my year to date gains to +15% or more, I’d be a fucking idiot not to take some profits and chill out for the rest of the summer.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q29YR5-t3gg
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
So we have the Greek Elections, Iran Oil Talks, G20…what can play out
1. New Dems Win, G20 starts a stimulus like 2009 and Oil Sanctions come into place in July causing a HUGE rally in all global growth plays.
2. Sexy Alex wins, G20 is a Photo Opp and Iran Oil Sanctions are delayed for a few months…Sell off in global growth plays.
3. No Victory and Greeks are back to square one, G20 waits and Iran Oil Sactions go into place…no direction.
So what do I know, BoE is going to come up with real money promise in a week or so coming up, China already cut rates (which they should not have), ECB won’t do anything, FOMC could extend the twist (but I don’t see it), Swiss is keeping everything low, Aussie may lose its PM soon..they only weaken rates, Bank of Japan didn’t lower on Friday, could intervene, but seems to be sitting on the sidelines. …also I know that the rally on Friday had a HUGE amount of volume of advancers vs decliners, yet only a 115 point gain..in the past that type of volume would be a 300 pointer…Market is all on (except Scott B. has pointed out, :-), not me) on the same side of the boat as we float into Monday…..
There will not be oil sanctions. Too many leaders hanging by a thread to push oil to new highs.
1400-1420 by July 4th, dog paddle to elections. Actually “trading range” will become the CNBC buzz word.
Loki, If Iran Sanctions don’t come into place July 1, then the world is looking at Oil Reserves at 08 highs with no “event” and leading into the European Vacation slowdown. If Oil tumbles I don’t see a 1400 market…I see more of a 1290/1280 ish range with Oil coming down and Tech, Ag in its slow time of the year imho. Plus, PMI data from around the world is still weak. To get that 1400 level we need the IMF opening up their “War Chest” to help Greece, Spain, Italy..ect and something out of ECB and FOMC which I don’t see…but we will see.
no politico wants to lose there job.
11% in 2011, 15% 2012. Relax.
This post is a winner. Well described, without .teste kicking rancor.
Even an armed “revolt” doesn’t work as well as proven in Egypt where their 2 choices are .. the same or some extremist.
All that turmoil for what? So you can drop your ballot into a box that’s probably rigged to vote for the same regime?
Fly’s right. Shorts will be Murked.. sending this rally into overdrive and nothing in Greece will change for the working people.
Status quo.
In ten years, with an economically reorganized “Euro”, all bears will retire or seek refuge.
The Euro project aims to improve the lives of the current “non-performers.” But there’s such ancient history, it takes grand vision and trusted fates to move onward (NOT “forward”).
The negative nelly naysayers, typically gone full throat-ethnocentric (no Roman pedophile), fail to see above and beyond this loftier intent.
You got issues with all your ramblings…seek help.
Deud.
The homo’s of IBc hang out in the IBC Financial Network.
This is a location for men who understand: 1) megadeath; 2) piracy and 3) (minority rights for [heterosexual]) polygamy.
Try again. Go talk to your counselor or gays in the Ibc fin. network.
Ha, you sharpened the tip on my point…sadly, you don’t even realize you are doing it. Listen to your odd rants…how do you achieve in a matter of a few simple lines of text to come of so obnoxious, contemptible and detestable? It is truly a skill of sorts, hmm?
I’ve only really sluured about lesbo’s here (queer – since they don’t put out).
I couldn’t care less that you’re gay.
The fact that your incalcitrant and, most obviously, illiterate has been noted.
Again. The homos are in the ibc. financial network.
I’ll tell you once, and tell you again, you’re grin fckued, this is the end of the line, with you all your B/S.
END OF THE LINE
Happy Fathers Day,
Everything else is just satic
Static, sorry too many Coronas
Maybe not enough.
ND finished ahead. (est 127 seats) Now what?
Now what? The real world turns to whether tiger Woods blinks and stinks or burps and birdies to win. On a higher level some great minders ponder whether the Thunder can win tonight or, do they get Broned.
The world has it’s answer already for Tiger today (stinks). But that Olympic was a horror-show of a golf course, as even the #1 and #2 ranked golfers in the world were eliminated from competition by Friday.
Germany vs. Greece for the win!
“chill out for the rest of the summer.”
you lie 😉
wizened
Are you one of the armed or unarmed?
Fly, Nice strategy summary.
This is a perfect scenario, coordination = death blow to bears. Best of luck!
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/1208244/1/.html
Futures are already fading. Ireland needs another bailout, Italy, Spain not enough, France screws themselves, etc. Same ole’ same ole’.
Are you happy with 10-15% because you are managing more money? Or…
if u were the head of a bank, would u loan greece money? if they renogotciate, then will others wish to do the same? italy must borrow money @ 6+% so they can give it to spain @3%. am i missing something?
@razor – Check out the NYT op-ed from a couple of days ago on Greece. It was written by a Greek Newspaper man. They’ve only been a democracy since 1974 after the dictatorship fell. According to him the proper functioning of government is broken or not yet fully developed. Many (most?) middle and upper class professionals pay no taxes. It’s clear they should never have been admitted into the Euro until they had everything functioning properly.
Futures are up but we don’t believe it! Tomorrow morning we think we will see a sharp reversal after the initial over exuberance!
Why?
Why? The same thing happened last Monday, futures were up on news that Spain was getting financial aid. With dicks held firmly in hand there was sperm exploding like fireworks everyw here! When reality set in
Hang in, we’re almost done!
It may not even last until the AM. This has already been discounted and if there is any retail left, and I believe it is mostly computers trading against each other, then they will be sucked in. Too late. By the way, congrats due on the pending nuptials?
Asia in rally mode. Keep your knickers zippered.
i should fuckn retire and move to greece ..probably be able to live like a king when i think about it ..and the more i think about it the more i think i should go take a look for myself
Go here, the islands are all hype http://www.romanoscostanavarino.com/
@Fly- I just noticed the musical selection. Thank you very much. Happy Father’s Day.
Why no rap on Father’s Day?
Cat Stevens. Now that shows your real age Fly. I bought all of his albums and then he went off the deep end of radical islam.
I’m 36.
Let me know if your looking for a trader for energy Fly.
ALWAYS HERE BRO, JUST SAYIN
This marks the beginning of the end.
Fly, “weazened” state ?
A game … weakened state!
Please learn the word. Weazened.