Eventually, all of this planning that I am doing is going to pay off in spades. Like I said yesterday: there is 1 more epic trade to be had until September and I intend to nail it.
This morning I sold out of EXK, only because I had to. I was up about 7% in the position and it was a 10% holding. The only problem: my other silver position, AG, was also a 10% holding and I was flat on it. So I took profits on EXK and reallocated about half of the cash into CLF and accumulated more NXPI and MTW–both legacy positions of mine.
My intention is to capture the full body of this move, if we are to get one. Providing we get one, I am fairly certain anything related to China will power forward. This means industrials, basic resources and even burritos. Keep in mind, the Chinese H shares are the cheapest stocks in the world, now trading just 6x next years earnings, AS AN INDEX. Compare that to our 12-14x, you can see how bearish people are on China.
For the moment, everything I do will trade around my YELP and CPST positions. All stocks can be sold, except those, and will be sold when the appropriate level of profit presents itself.
Here is my short list of “China-centric” names that I am keenly focused on, some procured from the hallowed halls of The PPT, others from my various spies on Wall Street.
YZC
HUN
MT
MTL
MTW
TEX
KOR
FCX
CLF
TCK
BHP
If we get a move in the market, the above stocks will serve me well. If the market fails, those fuckers are going down double digits. It’s high stakes investing out there, player, not for the faint of heart. Watch the euro/dollar cross and how Australia trades tonight. I am also looking for more rumors of Greek bailouts and favorable polling data–pointing to victory for the bailout fuckers.
In the end, “The Fly” wins. All of this shit you see here is simply drama for the unwashed, keep those fuckers interested like this shit was a soap opera.
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Fly if i may ask a question?
You just did.
bwah!
Hahaha, awesome…
could you tell me what would happen after the demise of the euro and germany has the currency that would be wanted ..what would happen when the countries of the existing euro meet in a closed door conclave and march into the oil fields taking them over forming a new alliance ..i guess my question is would their currency ( german )be worth anything during a war ?
Marks would be forced to peg to euro, if Germany left.
Just hype of a hype.
Much more likely that Germany conditions further monetary assistance on the erection (indeud) of a Pope Benedict on top of the capitol foyers in Greece, Italy and Spain.
Has occurred before, Jesuits were a kind of religius settlement begat by “Barbarians” sacking Rome multiple times.
In case Ibc didn’t know, there’s a reason Venice was built on a marsh island: fear of further attack.
Thus, for example, the reason the Sistine Chapel was built. That’s the one with God’s finger touching Atom’s finger.
em… “hypo” first line.
By Michael Kitchen, MarketWatch.com
May 29, 2012 7:57 PM ET – MarketWatch Pulse News BulletLOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Senior Chinese economists say the central government’s much-touted stimulus plans will be mild compared to actions taken at the height of the global financial crisis four years ago, according to a state-media report Wednesday. The People’s Daily report quoted several economic experts from academia and the government as saying the current round of pro-growth measures should be conducted carefully and won’t be on the level of the 4 trillion yuan ($630 billion) package conducted during the crisis. Among those quoted in the report, Liu Yuanchun, the deputy chief of the economics school at Beijing’s Renmin University of China, cited the current labor environment as being much better than that in late 2008, meaning that China “needs a modest investment, but must also curb the impulse to invest excessively.”
This time the stimulus is worth 2 trilion Yuan
The stock market sucks, it is nothing but a wealth destruction mechanism. If you insist on blowing your money, at least have a little fun doing so by blowing it in Las Vegas.
i dont gamble
Fly,’do you ever just sit and not trade for a few weeks?
What a ridiculous question, especially from you. When you were wildly bullish in Feb, I was 80% in cash and sat the month out.
Act like you don’t remember.
I do remember and yes I was wildly bullish in Feb….
I was meaning to say that it might not be a bad time to let Greece go through next election and just keep high cash until it’s over…. not trading is not a bad thing specially in this choppy tape.
I am still bullish though (not wildly).
That’s what I’m doing, but it is tormenting. The only I can pat myself on the back for is not trading at the moment. About 20% long, if I miss a rally so be it.
According to Zerohedge, china has no plans to introduce any massive stimulus.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/first-ecb-now-china-says-has-no-plans-massive-stimulus?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
The Chinese SHIT on ZH
No, but Ben sure has some plans to stimulate Chinese 🙂
Get your 10% for the year and GTFO.
LOL PLayer… Couldn’t say it better myself pimp..
Counting on china wont work out everybody knows they are slowing down and with europe fucked their gdp is getting cut a third. You should double down on facebook Dont worry!!
Australia, Nikkei and Hang Seng all getting clobberred overnight with materials and miners leading the way. China’s stimulus package disappoints!
clobbered
Longshanks was ruthless! I liked the part where he threw that buttfucker out the window!
SPECIAL MESSAGE FOR EURO HOLDERS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIFbsCxTiME
Heng seng is ex divvy today
Why do you put “The Fly” in scare quotes?
why not?
It implies we aren’t supposed to take what’s between the quotes literally. We already know you’re not a fucking housefly, so what’s the point?
Oh…maybe some of your readers are that stupid…
Yep, the China denying stimulus makes more sense.
So, what we’re seeing is a continuation of the Greek tragedy, with the contagion sub-plot firmly asserting its place as the main story, and China’s economy imploding as domestic demand refuses to create a virtuous cycle sans strong exports. The rest is just “history” (like the US housing and employment markets), collateral damage (commodities), or irrelevant.
Consensus is that equity markets rip higher on positive (aka the announcement of Pan-Euro-Bonds), or dive into oblivion on German non-participation. The only consensus on China is that the data is flawed (manipulated, irrelevant, and grossly innacurate).
Technically, equity markets are signalling, with “text book” clarity, that there’s a chasm ahead in the near future.
The obvious trades are up or down, so, somehow, the markets will find a way to grind sideways – is there a better way to rob everyone? Anyone have a “feel” for volatility levels in different market segments at this time (bond markets are very volatile, with correlation breakdowns etc), gold and energy are consolidating…
It’s during times like these that I think back on a mathematical proof that “proves” that over time (extended periods of time, and accounting for devaluations/inflation, survivorship bias etc etc) securities trade sideways.
Prepare For War – http://youtu.be/MNBZJrirHqM
Always Go For It! V.King 1:03
Your timing looks like how mine has been: fucking terrible. Get out early or get out bloody, I don’t think the 3:00 computer-assisted rescue is going to kick in today as it’s been doing the last four days or so.