The problem with being in cash is the constant desire to invest for quick gains. The easiest way to fuck yourself, when trying to be conservative, is to make exceptions for “quick trades” for “easy gains.”
Here I am contemplating putting money to work and I find myself going up the risk ladder, gravitating towards highly speculative stocks for the sake of making a “quick trade.” Truth be told, it’s wishful thinking and counterintuitive to what I am really trying to accomplish. For example: I am in cash because I think the market is risky (obviously). In the past, I’ve went against my conservative bend in order to make “quick trades” only to get stuck in the back of a jam sandwich, long asshole stocks, heading for massive losses.
I am writing this so I can see the flaw in my current mindset, on the blog, for the world to see.
SHAME ON ME.
Do you want to know what stock is at the very top of my buy list?
FSLR
Why?
Because DECK is springing higher and I am thinking heavily shorted stocks like FSLR and GMCR will be “the next ones to go.” Do you know how retarded that sounds?
Look, maybe FSLR is a buy here, after getting the shit kicked out of it for the past few weeks. However, if I invested in it and the stock started to head lower again, I would likely throw myself into a lit fireplace, due to breaking my rules.
What are said rules?
Don’t invest in industries that suck dick. At the moment, I have a select few industries that I feel are to be avoided, at all costs: coal, solar, natural gas. Everything else is fair game.
Bottom line: often times, when in search for the fast money, large, slow, losses are realized instead. My advice to you and my gambling alter-ego is to sit tight and follow the rules.
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Nice post, as usual.
sent you a few new emails
Thanks Senor for throwing $KSWS on my radar a couple weeks ago. Just locked in 11%
Don’t thank me, thank Kenny “motherfucking” Powers
Good stuff.
But the worst part is when these names go up 10-15% in the next week, the regret that hits you is a bitch.
that’s the breaks
Fuck you, by the way. That’s crackhead talk.
Work out your highest percentage play, put in a reasonable stop DONT MOVE THE STOP!! and take a shot. Is that so wrong?
YEA! The fly is back, shouldn’t you be listening to a little more YELAWOLF!? Seems more your style.
LULU blasted through the $70 mark. They have a hot product. As does AAPL, SCSS, SBUX, GMCR (but they go off patent soon) I’m looking at the hot product stocks, and looking to buy into media companies with all the political advertising on the horizon.
sweet post.
“the next one to go” game is a regularly scheduled program over here. must resist.
inaction is action. inaction is action.
we’ll call him,inaction jackson. pal
I’m in PPT and 12631 for my edumacation. But this: “Because it’s the RULES, dummy” is tattooed on the inside of my eyelids. Thanks!
nothing wrong with sitting in the tall grass, PAL
hold it. Since when does a Space Alien Magician in a time machine have fucking rules??
Pikers like me have found your original ideas to be the most ingenius and profitable when you first mention them.. don’t tell us all that CNBC Macro shinola is clouding Sir Fly’s good judgment..time to settle down and get back, old school, to the confines of your urinal…
jotting this blog title down on a post-it and sticking it on my monitor.
Wouldn’t UNG or GAZ be as good an alt energy play as FSLR here?
Senor – if you are so inclined, afford us a comment on GLNG. Day rates have nearly quadrupled, Japan has said screw you to nuclear power, new LNG terminals cropping up in La and elsewhere, only 2 new vessels coming on this year and a 2 year backlog for vessel construction, and finally lots of cheap gas to offer as alternative to nuclear and coal. Thanks and if you choose to answer in the PPT all good, as I think I will post a trade if I can add today at $41.32.
Think of this analogy: You are in a casino and are up $5k from an earlier playing session. You have an hour before dinner with nothing to do, so you think “maybe I’ll sit down at this table and fuck around, earn some comp points.” So you sit down and bet the table minimum, thinking you won’t risk much and maybe you’ll win a few bucks.
20 minutes into it, you’re down a few hundred and want to get your money back. All of a sudden you get more aggressive, start pressing, taking chances, etc.
Now it’s time for dinner and you just lost $10k, but you did earn $35 worth of comps…was it worth it?
Hey Fly,
Do you use technical analysis at all for your picks?
never, only algorithms in PPT
I see cool
A wise man once said
(I never heard of him before & can’t remember his name. I said he was wise; I never said he was famous)
that he has to write his thoughts down to know what he thinks. Indeud.
That ties in with a book I am reading that says that our conscious minds do not have direct access to the workings of our sub-conscious minds. Odd, no?
How right you are …you dont have to play by the rules….. but you’d better stick to them ! ! !
WNR +3% today, thanks for your list yesterday
I know NOTHING about options, but doesn’t the following quote say the big money is on WNR passing 20.25 next week ? Drummerboy ?
“WNR – Western Refining, Inc. – Shares in independent oil and gas company, Western Refining, Inc., are in rally mode today, gaining less than Valero Energy Corp., but still trading sharply higher by 4.3% to stand at $19.24 in early-afternoon trade. Bullish options activity was seen across both names today, with front month calls garnering the most action on Western Refining thus far in the session. Volume is heaviest at the Mar. $20 strike, where more than 4,460 calls changed hands against open interest of 1,714 contracts. It looks like most of the calls were purchased for a premium of $0.25 a-pop, thus positioning buyers of the options to profit should WNR shares rally another 5.25% to exceed the breakeven price of $20.25 at expiration next week”.
bb, are they otm calls? for confirmation,take a look at itm,or atm calls going out to july look at open interest against todays volume, add the 2 together. then in the morning,take your evening number,compare it to the “new” open interest #’s,this way you can see how many were day trading contracts,and what became open interest……..if that open interest is stronger than prior close going out to july, than you should see your expected move.remember lpx,someone did a straddle of 20k contracts on the 10 strike early 2010 dumped them at 13.
clne +40% since 1/27/12 smokin
chkm,
A lot of stocks were at support 2 days ago. Would be pretty brutal if they started finding Resistance at 8ema and 20dma’s. I took a little off the table today, and am watching TVIX tank. I would buy some TVIX at MS1 if opportunity presented itself, to partially protect my longs, and as a trade in itself.
FSLR is at monthly Support 1. MS2 is 19.78. hate saying things like this, but if it craps out here, look out below.
Hey Fly,
What was your entry price for VXX ? Was trying to find it by looking back but couldn’t
The whole solar sector looked like a good long term buy when they took out the 2008 “generational bottom.”
Then they proceeded to lose another 50%.
Fuck solar.
great post. i have done (what you are warning against) this many times. it is so easy to do. you are only going to do it small and short term. then the trade goes against you, and you let it ride because you are mostly in cash, and it is small. before you know it your are down 30%+ and it becomes a long term hold.
when the right opportunity knocks, you have whittled away your cash for stuff, that when you look back on, was so far away from your basic game plan.
well done! i feel the deja vu…:-)”
It seems to me at some point we will have to reduce our dependency on foreign oil. At that time, natural gas which is so cheap and plentiful at the moment, seems to be a logical alternative. You also have car dealers making clean cars that run on hydrogen in Germany. When would you consider natural gas to be a worthy investment as the new paradigm energy fuel much like investing in Apple stock early on was smart money for the culture shift in communications?
Le Fly, I’m not looking for fast money. I’m looking for future culture shifts, a bit of time travel through a subspace fracture perhaps?
speaking of DECK
lowbrow was pseudo-banned for speaking the truth about the prospects of DECK back in middle of december while being a fine jerk in the process