I need a reprieve from dealing with the whimsical nature of investors. People who invest in stocks are not like other people. Investors are glorified gamblers, steered by emotions, delving into the deepest depths of depravity.
Everyone is right and there isn’t a single idiot amongst us. When things go terribly awry, it is simply a case of “bad luck” or being cursed by stock market magicians who control trading robots. I find myself dealing with the same vagrancies over and over again, with the lot of you now eagerly bullish to the point of mental retardation. It was as clear as the day was long, just two months ago, that the market was doomed for terminal failure. It was end game for the world, then the calendar flipped the script and ensnared the bears in a lethal choke hold, courtesy of the numbers 2-0-1-2.
To be clear, we’re going up only because we’re going up. Stop fucking overanalyzing it, trying to convince others that’s it’s based on something real– because it isn’t. It is all fantasy, a magical carpet that can be pulled from underneath you at any time. I know the feeling of not giving a shit about risk aversion, pushing the envelope to dangerous levels because it’s possible. I’ve been levered 250% to the upside, long short dated options, into overbought tapes, not giving a fuck about the consequences. Likewise, I know the feeling in my stomach, the feel of a knife twisting inside of my guts, when suffering from a -10% single day drawdowns–thanks to market “surprise sex.”
Have you ever lost more than a million inside of a single day? I know some of you have, most of you will never see that type of money.
It’s true, the very best traders, during upward surging markets, are young and ignorant. You can be very smart and a God damned idiot at the same time. Once you get older and conditioned to the eccentricities of the market, due to the battle scars, trading in momo names will never the same, unless of course you remain an ignorant fucker.
I’m only 35, but have been investing in one form or another since I was 13.
Don’t direct your fucking rancor at me because I decided to stay in cash. You fuckers need to catch up to me first, before you can take the fucking high road, bitches.
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You are certainly an interesting gent Dr. Fly.
I thought you were so much older. Maybe 40-45!!!
only old fuckers are 45.
I must be Methuselah on viagra, then.
He has an old soul.
Staten Island Dog Years.
__________
I suppose it’s wise to pare back on long positions, but it looks like I’m going to miss out on massive profits if I do.
For instance, I sold out of MAKO on Tuesday, and now it’s up 7% from where I sold it. The damn thing is going to the moon, and now I’m stuck waiting for the big sell-off that isn’t coming until the end of the world in December.
Fly, you missed this huge rally and made a few bad calls. Get over it and stop being such a drama queen.
Tell me how I missed the rally when I am up nearly 20% for the year, on a sum of money that trailer park suckers like you can only dream of?
Also, tell me where I made bad calls? I am 14 for 15 this year and I’m even up 3% on my VXX.
I’ll wait for your reply.
Are you getting irrelevant? Tell me what to buy/sell..
haha obviously he is telling you to not buy or sell anything right now if he’s sitting in cash. Honestly can you think of a smarter position, trending upward in overbought conditions?
I am relevant only if you find me to be so. Some will connect, others will not. The choice is yours, is it not?
What are you doing blogging at this hour?Jersey Shore is on! The opiate of the stupid masses.
You should be ashamed of mentioning that show’s name.
Only 35? No wonder I have more scars than you. By the way, fucking good writer, you are.
Exactly…someone explain to me what fucking changed to flip the script like this. Oh no Europe is fucked! Here we go, breaking new lows, soon to see SP 900 after breaking through the Oct lows. And now an endless run, based on??
Totally manufactured. Be honest… no one here knows, they’re just thinking they’ve got it figured out, drawing bullshit lines and triangles.
I neve ask why, but I remember days when I did – never made a cent than..
ignorant fuckers are part of blogging business…
ignore everyone including me… developing thick skin is part of business, but you know that already
More pearls of wisdom from the guy who cooly rode through the 2008 debacle, 100% long and happy, without a care in the world because his fucking cost basis was from 1971.
actually I was almost 50% short lol
Why would a man, who hasn’t a care in the world about the long term prospects, one who espouses the glory of long term investing, ever find himself short?
Dare I say, it is contradictory to everything you argued for several days ago.
I have blogged about it by the way 🙂
2008 was the only year I have lost money, even though I was short (first time ever net short for some period), but it was too late ..
still lost big $$
I have only started trading in 1989 though 🙂
and I do smoke gold Cohiba 🙂
I don’t know what that is supposed to mean, other than to age you to a despicable number.
How do you know he wasn’t 11?
____________
Partridge, how you can you and Fly be lovers if you can’t be friends.
Spare me the platitudes, Mr. Patridge. I see through your fake pleasantness for the smugness it is.
You can do very well or not, it doesn’t make a difference to me. Furthermore, nothing you will say will deter me from my course of action, as I do not expect my words to affect yours.
There are many different ways to skin a potato. Do not be so self absorbed as to believe your way is the only viable course of action, because it is not.
I do not expect you to and I agree with you.
The only way to make it is to believe in yourself.
HORSESHIT.
Smugly, you direct your little comments at me, as if you are to teach me anything at all.
This forum is not two ways, I hope you know that. I bowl, that’s right, bowl, on you fuckers forever. I do not ask or want financial advice, then why do you offer it to me?
Keep in mind, this is not meant to injure you, but to correct your character flaw, one that I am sure you never knew existed until right now!
haha
Don’t worry Mr. P, dearest H. Clawchicken has been too long without a MCD quarter pounder. He is not himself.
I know you didn’t just call your boss claw chicken!?
Ooopsie. It was a remnant from our Great MCD Debate. Perhaps now is an opportune time to remind you that I conceded the win to you?
Obsequiousness is so unmanly……
Calgary, not when dealing with the Blogfather. It is survival.
those 7% moves in a day will be flushed soon enough.
sweet post by the way. seeing a lot of giddy people right now with balls to the wall nad “not going to miss this rally”.
liquidations cometh.
I have to disagree this is all fantasy. I found the “end of the world/Europe” trade was a fantasy last year.
The difference between longterm bulls and bears is that bulls can use declines as an opportunity to accumulate more while bears root for the end of civilization, all the while their bankroll declines in value consistently over time.
You sir are a great trader that sat out a big rally with a 20% gain. No big deal. It would be different if you were holding a 100% TZA since $49 waiting for a miracle flash crash.
yadayadayada.
This coming from my good friend “bullish.”
Come on, really?
Lol – yes good friend.
In fact, when I get second place in the March Madness tourney, I’d like you to engrave it as follows:
To my good friend “Bullish”. You deserved this.
Regards,
The Fly
I expect you to be permanently bullish, as it is your job.
No one else gets a free pass, however.
Bullish, I love ya, but this is a retarded sentiment. Anyone who remains committed to a particular persuasion irrespective of new conditions is a dolt. The ZeroHedgers will have their day. Their fucking problem is they’re the girls who cried wolf. Europe is forcing itself into DEPRESSION vis a vis austere retardation. Europe’s economy falling off a cliff is a fact, and there’s nothing the ECB can do to stop it.
I am a real estate broker from CA. I am a bear. I have been wrong and it has cost me a lot of money. I am embarrased from what Oct to now has cost me. I just wanted to point out that I have multiple clients that do not pay their mortgages. 10+ months and the banks have not filed any NODs. I ask them if they want to shortsell and they say why should I? I have no answers.. BAC has countrywide assets.. The numbers are wrong. They dont report current values. I dont believe any accounting numbers anymore. Jim cramer makes me nauseous
You can be a bear without committing financial suicide, just stay in cash and wait for a trade.
Cramer can cradle my nuts.
Cradle my nuts – – ha ha ha- good shit right there.
When the world is being flooded with dollars, the inflation trade is carrying the market higher. Be careful about being a bear.
For this, 0bama will fine the banks and give the money to the freeloaders.
I lost 250k one day in 2011, only to go to bed long 50 cars of CL. I was saved by a miracle, as i slept for 2 hours. I woke at 3am to my salvation, with crude bouncing back about 4 bucks while i slept.
I discontinued by NYMEX feed a few short weeks later.
Miracles don’t come along like that too frequently.
’twas this day: http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2011/08/08/a-reversal-of-winship/
i try to keep the memory fresh.
I lost 250K in a chiscam for which I agonizingly waited through a 10 week trading halt and delisting, does that count? The solution was to invest in some bond funds for a couple months.
Fry is angry tonight. Adjust one’s cod piece accordingly.
How come the poeple who post your news links can;t dig up anything beyond what the propaganda mainstream news feeds them?
This is the biggest news item of the year, so far… did they cover this in your links?
On January 18, 2012, a major United Nations event occurred. International water and food recommendations was passed at the 2012 NCSE Conference in Washington DC that will devastate society. UN control of the earth’s fresh water was recommended “for the welfare of humanity everywhere” and then passed into law by the General Assembly and the Security Council.
Moses, its February. Are you certain it wasn’t posted by Cronk? That kind of thing is right up his alley.
Anyway, send a link and I’ll look at it.
Water? who cares about water? So much shit better like; soda, juice, beer and vodka.
ok, seriously, you talking this UN stuff is real. show me.
regards
chuck
The UN has zero police power.
They can pass a dictum about the regulation of oxygen and no one would give a shit.
Show me their divisions (a la The Pope).
Stop fretting about the fucking dysfunctional UN. They are a clown show.
______________
You know life is about fun and excitement (not counting the pain and sorrow); you should climbing rocks. There is nothing like being out on a 50 foot lead with your last pin under an expanding flak. Try Ruper in Eldorado Canyon. One of the moves is described as “terribly fun.”
Macpatton
Fuck rocks. I climb mountains of money. I’ll leave the rocks to barbarians like you.
It doesn’t feel much different.
You should hang with Savage. He’s a crazy rock monkey too.
________
I prefer caving. At least I did, until the white nose syndrome closed down all the caves.
We have the biggest cave in all creation a few miles south of us, but then you probably know that.
_______
Been in it, and used to work for one of the guys that some of the major discoveries there.
Caves are for rodents and bats, roaches too.
Only Crooklyn and Mah-hah-‘an caves.
_______
I’m scaling out of this market. Nearly all cash except one huge MPET position.
Market is moving higher in spikes now…a sign of a top… The slow grind is over for now
“Everyone is right and there isn’t a single idiot amongst us” — It’s just green tape-induced insanity, with delusions of grandeur. Onset is triggered by overdose of triple leveraged crapola in one’s portfolio. Symptoms include doubling down two or three times, then later getting booted from stock talk chatrooms after obsessing endlessly over trades that no one else cares about…
You have conditioned us to expect more so when the best you have to offer is Crapstone in a vertical tape, of course you’re gonna hear it from the masses. Your recent lack of trading appears to be a combination of desire to travel without any positions and “Tom Brady syndrome” where you’re more interested in playing house with Mrs Fly instead of playing the game like a Champion.
I play the game the way I choose. Remember, boy, I am managing real money and this is not a game. I do not throw out picks because I am not buying now.
Naturally, in my absence, we can all depend on you to bridge the gap, no?
I thought you were paid to be an active manager…i’m sure your clients love that you’re spending more time with your realtor than your trader.
My clients do not pay me to trade their accounts. They pay me to make them money, now shut the fuck up about it before I start to get pissed off at you.
Fly, as I am looking for some insights and have a cash position of my own as well, I’m just wondering what do you want to see in the tape to convince you to once again allocate capital long? On the other hand, what would cause you to capitulate your short term short bias (or neutral bias) and go long in a surrender type manner? This will hopefully give me something to look for.
The melt up is an illusion. It’s really a declining value of currency. All currencies are devaluing at differing slopes. The same company is worth more dollars because the dollars are worth less. If you are in cash you are losing ground.
That said, I have to think the melt-up is too early to be of any use to obummer. It can’t keep going for another 8 months.
Are you still buying your groceries in this country’s currency?
Allright then.
_______
No, soon enough he will be trading Apple Stock certificates for $10,000 corn on the cob. It’s a mayan calendar thing. But 2013 will send those mayans back into the historical obscurity where they belong!
Yallobox
Lower prices. Plain and simple. There is no rush.
I’m sure half these clowns envy your position, up 18-20% with no need to chase.
Not me though. I, too, am up 18% AND I ate McDonald’s today.
And stayed at Holiday Inn last night?
Ok, then, since Fly is looking for volunteer picks in his absence, here they are.
Steady as she goes and don’t hold your breath too long.
________
Don’t you mean Linfectious Linsanity?
PA respect!
I woke up with the thought below. Needless to say, I am nowhere near it. By objective measures, the Fly has made quite remarkable progress.
Success, is simply achieving security (in every sense of the word) for you and your family, for all time.
The “for all time” part is of course, rather difficult. And I’m not even working on that part yet.
Good day gentleman.
Best of luck to us all.
Now, back to work.
Hey GREAT NEWS EVERYONE — War is on the horizon, oil is skyrocketing, and the EZ is dead flat broke.
Let’s Rally!
I never lost a million in a day, but I did lose a years salary in two days. Taught me to pay attention, even on vacation.
This is getting old! Just saying.
The continued bearishness by the majority all over “my” web hangouts leads me to believe this rally has real legs. The explosive jump in AAPL or MAKO or DECK this past week, leads me to believe that the big A hole hedge fund rip off scam artists are short good companies growing earnings well above wimpy expectations. FLY I thought you had decades on me. Bummed that I am actually older than you by a couple and have been trading longer than you. Should have stayed in DECK man!!! Long April DECK calls.