I am not posting this for your pity or to teach you any lessons, but to document my mistakes during this collapse.
Just two weeks ago, I was sitting on 16% year to date gains in an 80% cash position. I felt the market was a sell until September or until Bernanke announced another form of quantitative easing. I intended to put 25% of my cash into TLT, due to the seasonal trends in the month of August for bonds, which are flawless. So, what happened?
First, I got distracted by the Congressional debt ceiling debate. They pulled an old Kaiser Soze on me, a regular sleight of hand if I might be so bold as to say so. The reason why I was in cash was because of the European debt crisis. I felt, and still do, Italy and Spain are too big to save. However, the Congressional clown show made me forget the answers to the questions that plagued me. I bought into the market on the premise I would sell into a debt ceiling deal. It was all a ruse, a ploy that helped some get out while schmucks like me bought in.
I fell for it.
The deal was announced and futures were ripping in pre-market trade. Shortly after the market opened, everything was sold and with great vigor.
I held my ground, believing the sell off was reactionary and without merit.
Then, I overweighted in WNR, due to my belief that the company would smash earnings because of industry wide fundamentals. On the day they reported an eps shortfall, the market dropped 500+, exacerbating the selling in WNR, sending shares down more than 20% in a day. At the time, I was 20% cash and looking for longs. Remember, I just finished booking sick profits on a number of stocks, like DECK.
The very day before the 500 point decline, seeing the market weak, I put 30% of my cash to work in a number of names. At this point, the Italian and Spanish news flow was beginning to thicken and tensions were high. However, like a jackass who had the answer key but didn’t bother to look at it, I chased stocks down the rabbit hole.
The market cratered and I lost 10% in one day, all but wiping out my year to date gains. Then on Friday, stocks continued to sell off, following a very good opening. I didn’t like the patterns, so I sold most of my positions, raising cash levels to 70% again. While doing this, I booked millions in losses. However, shortly after I sold, a news story broke that the ECB was going to buy Spanish and Italian debt. To me, that meant QE1 for Europe. What I failed to acknowledge is how retarded the Europeans are when it comes to taking action. I got hooked, allocating cash to the markets, leaving my reserves at a respectable 30%.
Then came today. I didn’t buy anything or sell; but my positions plunged lower, sending me down more than 5% for the day. The only reason I wasn’t down more is because of my 30% cash position, which is now 35% all on its own.
Where does that leave me?
65% long, 35% cash, down 8% for the year aka “new lows.” Aside from the losses, my psyche is badly damaged. It’s one thing to miss a trade, it’s a whole different story ignoring my own advice and getting blown up as a result. The game plan going forward entails lots of finger crossing. I am fairly scared to death that this market can plunge 10%+ in a day. I am putting all of my emotional capital in The Fed, which is a future mistake yet to be revealed. I can see myself making mistakes in real time and it shocks me.
We’re all waiting for respite, some semblance of normalcy in order to reduce risk. However, when markets are this oversold and sentiment is at the point of panic, markets crash. Granted, we’ve crashed over the past 12 days, down more than 17%. But if confidence isn’t buoyed ASAP, we’re gonna crash some more.
Sadly, this time around, I don’t see our leaders doing anything. I mean, these fuckers aren’t even trying. In the midst of a global meltdown, our fucking President is hosting $15,000 per plate fundraisers. Something is wrong. It’s as if they’ve resigned themselves to let this thing just play out. The consequences of their inaction will be devastating for this country, and more specifically me.[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9SmhC-Sm6Q 616 500] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
I ignored my gut as well last 2 months. Most honest post anyone is likley to see about this market.
Why not go 100% cash and see how things play out ? It doesn’t make sense to be long or short here. The next 100 point move in the SPX could be up or down. I am starting to think down but the FED scares me. Cash is King right now.
IF we trade up tomorrow, will you suck your own cock again? Just curious
Whats old is new again!
If we trade above SPX 1250 again in August I will.
Ah, yes. Cumming full circle, as it were.
Fuck it. Just wait for the bounce. It is coming and we all know it. QE3 is right around the corner and that means inflation and that means stocks go up.
The market will remember this in the next one or two days and then it’s back to business as usual, with a little more volatility than before as Italy and Spain fall off a cliff.
Folks are accepting negative yields in the bond markets. Wow. Take your lumps and don’t trade based on fear. I always get stopped out doing that. You’re OK Fly
Asian markets so stupid. Herb Greenberg on right now on CNBC stupid for encouraging negative opinions.
I think the tough thing you’ve been trying to do, Fly, is nimbly trade contrary to your fundamental beliefs. You called the longer-term picture right but figured you could pick up a few quick bucks in the meantime going the other way, and that’s a very tough game to play. Meanwhile, -8% on the year is a hell of a lot better than most of the funds out there, although sadly, none of us can eat relative performance.
It’s always that “one last trade” that kill you, no?
The most economically dangerous thing in this business is a winning streak, lol.
This is wisdom. Very true
+10 for honesty and laying it all out there, warts & all. May we all learn from our errors.
“Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know.” – M. King Hubbert
The safest place is yellow gold!
up $30 as we speak and futures are fucked. Tomorrow is either capitulation or the official beginning of the next great depression.
You’ve been nothing but a (gentle)man throughout this ordeal. Really admire your attitude, and your counsel is what keeps me optimistic about recouping my horrendous losses.
Having said all that, don’t you think QE3, at this point in time, directly on the heels of the BOJ’s intervention in the Yen and the ECB’s launch of QE1, seems untenable? Not only are yields as low as they can be, but a launch of QE3 would completely suppress the (pathetic) efforts of Japan/ECB. I think, at this point, the only thing we can hope for is a return service from the ECB, i.e. a bonafied commitment to easing, not the chicken-shit press release with zero details they’ve managed to date. Then, in a year or two, as this wears off, the Fed can launch QE3.
The market wants it.
What did QE2 accomplish?
From Nov 1 2010 to now, 5+% drop in S&P and just under 5% drop in USD.
So to answer your question, nothing.
QE1 and QE2 kept the cities from burning for three years. Three more years than we deserved.
A stock market rally.
Accomplished: Wealth transfer from the US middle class to the banking oligarchy.
But we knew that when we first heard about it, because we follow legislation and planning coming out of the United Nations.
Fly, I admire your tutelage. You are definitely more often right than you are wrong. However, this time you have allowed yourself to get royally fucked. This is a full fledged bear attack on the market that will not be miraculously saved by the Fed. A global recession is turning into a depression as we speak, and you are long stocks!
I know you don’t like being told what to do, but come on now. I don’t want to see you get washed out with the rest of the world. This blog is too much fun to see you trading on a 5 figure account instead of 7 figures.
Fly, i feel your pain I am enduring the same. Bought shit load of WNR the night before earning after dumping it at 22’s
I have another theory. The chockehole to a normal recover was the price of commodities,specially oil. It became evident whe iea released oil reserves in a coordinated fashion. But it did not work much and the prices coiled back in 5 trading days. This panic selling, fueled patially by HFT has managed to deaimate the commodity prices and keep the treasury at an attractive rate. Talking about kiling two birds with a stone. Now when is the projected bottom, without creating a panic recessionary deflation. That is when bearded clam comes in.lower commodity prices give them a green light for another QE, but how are they going to implement it without directing the money to commodities. That will be achieved by keepin the stock prices at bay
Just my opinion
What the fuck do you mean by ” how are they going to implement it without directing the money to commodities. That will be achieved by keeping the stock prices at bay.”
EXPLAIN this cryptic bullshit. It exceeds my ability to parse.
Just look at the market. It is shear panic.
You didn’t explain what you meant, which means you are an illiterate. I like reading posts
outlining various ideas, including bizzare ideas. If the fuckin’ posts are in ENGLISH.
I wish there was a ignire option. Or I could ban your ass, like fly
didn’t you mean “ignore option?” Perhaps riggedgame is right, literacy is a problem.
I’m calling the “Fly Bottom” right here. We trade up.
Yup. Buy when the sky is falling. Works every time.
Wait for the confirmation signal though. The fakey trade already happened… they don’t do this twice in a row. Wouldn’t put it past the BIS though.
Fly – I have been largely unscathed thus far. Down 5% in my stock/bond accounts – mostly in my retirement accounts. Those losses have been largely offset by my gold and silver bullion positions. My equity allocation in 35% or so.
Given that scenario, would you wait until after a Fed announcement to continue to allocate money into equities? Or would you buy into additional weakness? Thanks for your insights.
share your pain Fly, got whipsawed and hammer clawed. Fucking market had me right where it wanted me. Bent over and pants around my ankles.
Not sure about The Fed though, if is a QE it needs to be LARGE and even then it may be a fade.
Funny thing is dont seel capitutlation yet, a lot of guys I talked to are riding it out right now with their accounts and clients arent asking to hit the sell button yet. Maybe more blood letting to come?
We’ll see what the Euro trash session then our day brings.
My IBankCoin sweeties.
There is no bottom yet.
Look at futures.
Look for another 500 down.
Sell any rally, just keep adding TZA.
DJIA INDEX 10,555.00 -171.00 TIME: 21:31
I keep waiting to sell a rally, but there is never a rally. In the meantime, all my positions decline in value.
Market starts down tomorrow and then wild fucking rebound into the close as the masses remember what impact inflation has on the market.
fly as crazy as this sounds i joined the dark force this morning ( better late than never ) and more than made up for my losses. hell just tonight i shorted oil below 80 and here we are sitting down near 75 !! WTF… those moves used to take a week. HFT algos are taking us down…. i’m tired of trying to buy the bottom. SHORT THIS BITCH!! good luck to you sir.
Side Bar: How in the FUck is the EURO holding up in this shit storm !!! Should be a parity the way these fucking clowns are mnaging this shit.
How’s that Euro holding up against the only real form of currency, gold?
good luck eating your gold if we go ZH/Prison Planet
it wont mean shit … thats when brass is worth more
If you owned a $5mil mansion, wouldn’t you have Homeowner’s insurance on the mother fucker just in case it burned to the ground? Then why in the fuck do so many people have unhedged positions in the market? If I ever take a position via stock, I always hedge it with cheap puts if vol is low or sell calls against it. That way if my trade doesn’t work out in the direction I want I’m not totally fucked. If I want to swing trade for a few days/weeks I use options only! That way my risk is defined before I ever ever make a trade. WTF people? More of you need a huge position in a stock that gets halted and then opens 50% down to wake your fucking ass up! Or it looks like the current market is offering some tough love at the moment. Live and learn!
Its not necessarily the sellers that are the problem…Its there are no buyers! This gives the short sellers confidence to lean hard, throw in a Presidential speech that basically told the shortsellers I’m not going to stop you. THIS IS NOT A DRESS REHERSAL!…This government needs to scare the fuck out of the shortsellers right fuckin now…If that means firing Geithner, fire him!…If that means Obama having any honor left and for the good of the country stepping down, do it.
That was a very powerful post, I appreciate the honesty.We can all learn from this, Thanks for sharing. Yes looks like the leaders are out of ideas and will not do anything. I think this concept has accelerated the decline in the market.
No, our leaders are not fuckers. You are the fucker.
Congratulations on your loss, and hope it will continue.
LOL. Funny shit Peter. I am sure you will get a lot of support here defending our leaders.
Wait for china news
Complete washout coming tomorrow. The Fed is out of bullets.
Are you fucking serious?
The NAZ Futs are down 166 points.
Where do you get you futures quote
cnbc,its on now
Not 160 nsdq, may be dow futures
Don’t most retail brokerages also deal in futures these days? I get futures quotes via think or swim; S&P is currently down another ~2.25%
This market will make better investors out of all of us.
Hang in there Fly. Go on that vacation and clear your head. I implore you to return with a new perspective and we’ll all bank coin in the process.
It sucks to lose, your job failures have serious consequences. I grew up around alot of fingerless furniture factory workers who returned to the shop every fucking day. They were not going to be beaten.
Thanks for visiting Earth, Peter Pan.
Ah, Fly, I’m sorry. Remember Jesse Livermore? Or, better yet, remember how The Fly rose from the ashes, historically, like Lazurus on crack?
Just shut off the fucking computer and cool your head. This thing still might be a crash and not a bear market. I would rather have it end quickly then do death by a thousand cuts. Stocks are still cheap and that’s one of the sure things still left in markets…valuation.
it almost seems like a cyber attack
it does. lol
I may have to stay up all night, just to see how far down this can go. /ES -30 and dropping.
Look at the disorder in England, on the heels of the Middle East uprisings.
Maybe this market is telling us that the USA will imminently see widespread disorder, looting,
and burning. It might not be a bad idea – if the burners and rioters focus on the gated communities,
and create a bunch of Homeless, Scared Shitless Top 1%-ers.
That would be payback to those bastards for suppressing USA wages and hiring.
or better yet, say they burn vaccant homes, thus reducing the supply.
greenspan said that awhile ago, maybe even while he was still at the fed.
Shockingly, a sport utility zoomed past me today covered in fresh white shoe polish in bold lettering “DEBT KILLS THE USA.” First I chuckled, then thoughts of doom and gloom, then a memory came into play. The vision of Astro Vans driving the streets with white shoe polish advertising “FREE RIDES TO THE VOTING BOOTH” in the last election. I was astonished.
I’m holding all the way through QE14
A massive run for the exits. Never seen anything like this.
That’s why I know your PL will be back – AND MORE – within three months.
You played that fall of 2008 like – dare I say it – a space alien magician.
Find the keys to your time machine, Fly!!
Ignore the pellet looking things on the floor, though – sorry i took it for a spin last week:
FIRST CHINCH TO VISIT THE FUTURE
WOW. Futes are looking awesome. How BIG of a RALLY are you dip buyers at the close going to get tomorrow? I told you DOWN another 400 to 600 tomorrow. We’re just getting started. The truth will cut through the bull shit diarrhea of the last 3 years and won’t even stop to say hello to S&P 666.
A massive run for the exits. Never seen anything like this.”
Sorry, I have a short memory. It’s already been 3 years since the last time this happened.
Change my posts and misrepresent what I wrote.
That’s classy. Thought this place had more character than that.
Going to get a good night’s sleep so I’m rested to enjoy the carnage tomorrow. Can’t wait to see benny and listen to his cowardly, nervous voice tomorrow. Go ahead announce QE3 through QE1,000,000 tomorrow. Won’t make a damn bit of difference. GAME OVER SCUMBAGS!
Is thts how you speak to your dad when you lost his life savings on Faz?
How did saudi arabian market close?
they just stoped trading
The camel died.
Its time for Mr. Obama to step down…It is.Time to conclude this experiment. Yes he inherited a horrible situation and chose to change not one thing. He kept Geithner,he kept Bernanke. He stayed in all the wars and started a few new ones. He put a lot of his early energy iin trying to get carbon tax started,we all know it. Homeland Security? Yeah, I don’t fly anymore. Time to hand it over to the little man Ron Paul. Lets see if he can hit a bottom of the 9th, 2 strikes,2 outs homer.
You are shitting yourself if you believe anything in your post will ever happen.
Wilco, you win smartest post for the night. Ron Paul is the answer.
RON PAUL *OWNED*
See what endless central banker fiat money can buy? It can buy a 500 billion of those moments.
There will certainly be NO shortage of “Asshat Of The Year” nominees in 2011 !!!
Think it might be time to start compiling a list.
Head of S&P would deserve the first spot
He’s an errand boy.
Sent by grocery clerks…
To collect a bill… or a trill-ion or two.
Man, the only thing i would be looking at right now are some of these safe dividend stocks.. unreal steals out there that are yielding 5%, 6%, 7%, even 8 fricking percent!. MBT, NYB, ESV,
Just hold ’em for a few months and bank some coin the right way.
We are going down tomorrow, but it will be back up soon enough. Looked into the abyss before people.
and add RY to that list.
It’s not quite that easy, but it can work. It’s not risk free and you need big titanium balls to make it work.
Yeah let’s think about that shall we? 6% out of let’s say 2000 dollars investment, would be 120 dollars, yes?
And let’s assume the 2000 dollars investment is 100 shares of a 20 dollar stock. Do you realize that the stock goes down one point and you’ve almost wiped out an entire year of dividends right then and there?
Do you understand that the stock goes down 2 points, and it will take almost 2 full years to gain that back in dividend payments, and that’s assuming the stock ONLY goes down 2 points but doesn’t lose another 2 in the second year? GOOD GRIEF the “dividend bargains” advice is some of the most twisted cnbc lunacy ever imagined.
8% yield right now.
it is down say 5% last week + another 9% today.
you buy 1000 shares, it pays $1 a share. For only $12K you get $1000 a year, $250 a quarter. Is NYB going to drop another whole $2? I don’t know, no one does, but it would seem very unlikely at this point, maybe another $0.50. And if it does, you just let it pay you while it works it’s way back up. Point being that these are the stocks that will rebound first as people want guaranteed income. Granted it’s not the 1 day turnaround most of you probably want, but it’s real. They could cut the dividend by 50% (never happen) and the thing would still yield a whopping 4%. Get dividend payers and large cap/blue chippers people..that is all anyone is going to want for a while coming out of this. (Most Brokerages are telling clients to go Large Cap now due to their underperformance this year – Look at Goldman upgrading KO today, and MCD tomorrow)
Until Obama taxes dividends at an ungodly rate making it so there is no point holding divident paying stocks at all!
RY has been around for 100 years and never cut the dividend. Last time round in 2009 i picked it up at $29. Sell, never.
My favorite dividend stock is FAX. It yields monthly.
Hey Wilco, Ron Paul is going to need more than a bottom of the 9th 2 strike, 2 out homer. We are down more than 4 runs, and he doesn’t even have the bases loaded.
OK,we pray for rain delay
London on fire
I’m sure their cause is just.
The Fed is going to start buying everything, from stocks to bitcoins, from gold to uranium, from racehorses to circus monkeys, from Levaquin to marijuana, from houses to outhouses, from NFL franchises to Williamsport, PA, from the moon to Einstein’s left toe nail, and of course bonds from all countries from Italy to Austria-Hungary…
they did that already, they only have $6.08 left
DJIA INDEX 10,442.00 -284.00 10,733.00 10,748.00 10,408.00 22:21
FUTURES DOWN 300 ALMOST
JUST BUY TZA AND VXX THAT IS IT.
Soon your anme will be small Wee Wee.
I was going to ignore you, but seeing as how you have been so prescient and transparent with your calls in the past, I am now all in on TZA.
Plus, you wrote in all caps, so you’ve got that going for you as well.
Precisely, speedius. Finally, a man with some insight and knowledge.
And BTW, it’s not the size that counts, it’s what you do with it, which is why they call me…oh wait, nevermind.
If you bought $TZA yesterday at the close or after hours, you’ve been “Bobbitted” [sic] this morning. Have fun!
The govt set the conditions for the 08 contagion and their “fix” was a setup for this 11 fiasco. And your begging for more? OK…WTF???????????? Rational people either got decimated or flat a long time ago…a few maybe patient and ballsy enough got short. Long worked for a long time but it was never based on real analysis just a simplistic ride on uncle sammy’s train to intervention to thoroughly fuck up the natural order of things. Unfortunately a big juicy bounce won’t unfuck the mess wer’e in…HAPPY TRADING. Wall Street ain’t Main Street.
No where else in the financial blogosphere can one find such openness and honesty.
As I said before I’m sad you didn’t follow your otherwise outstanding intuition into August, and join me in “doing the Hugh” while the world burns.
By the way, Good Sir, I believe you meant exacerbating, not exasperating. Indeud.
Sorry chief, it’s all my fault.
I grabbed my WNR and jumped off of a CLF with you. The last time I took one of your trades was last year’s great VXX debacle.
Such is life.
is it me, or is ibankcoin traffic at some historic highs?
some here r very high
that goes without saying
When Snoop gets on, traffic will be at record highs.
“Sadly, this time around, I don’t see our leaders doing anything. I mean, these fuckers aren’t even trying. It the midst of a global meltdown, our fucking President is hosting $15,000 per plate fundraisers. Something is wrong. It’s as if they’ve resigned themselves to let this thing just play out. The consequences of their inaction will be devastating for this country, and more specifically me.”
For the life of me, I cannot understand US politics? 4 year terms and 1- 2 of those years seem to be spent campaigning? It seems like decisions that are made are based on what’s best for re-election or the party and not what is best for the country. Here in Canada, when an election is announced 1 month later the vote is held. The system is not perfect but at least the majority of our electorates term is spent running the country and not running a campaign.
Time to tax the guy doling out 15,000 dollar per plate fundraisers. Time for him to do his share.
calling for a V shaped recovery !
It may pain you to hear this, but you just told my tail. I was up 35% YTD, I am now down. Worst of all, after the bell tonight my losses have accelerated.
I am now crossing my fingers with a horrifically large position.
God help us all.
Or, Bernanke, help us all…
The s&p guys know its not a game anymore.
It never was a game.
There is some light at the end of the tunnel here folks.
The PIIGS should leave the Euro, clip the bond holders by 50%, change the terms of the bond debt to making them 30 year swith a 2% coupon. The PIIG banks that are broke… move the bond holders down a notch to equity level.
This would reflate everything. of course the large banks would get clipped but that wouldn’t matter so much because the recapped would be around 50 to 100 billion.
You nailed this tape. Good call, unfortunately.
Thanks sir, appreciate it.
Keep dreaming J. It’s over.
I have a strange feeling that the rioting you are seeing in the UK right now is going to spread around the world quite soon.
It’s just the brits working class having a good time in the summer, that’s all.
They burned down the toothbrush factories in the riots of 1807.
It was dreadful.
ive been getting liquid all evening,
This tape has left some liquid around my ass
Somebody give the guy a tissue !
I’ve placed my entire future, and that of my children, into long 50 Crude contracts. I find myself in the unfortunate position of hoping Iran somehow gets dragged into the Syria situation. For the kids.
pray for my children that crude touches $79 tonight.
balzy HB, you win
Thank fucking god….dumped all 50 contracts between 79 and 81….
Also, this feels like a shake and fucking bake….i think these bastards are trying to steal from us.
BSFT is on my immediate buy list. They’re killing it.
fly- it happens. Make money on the new trend….to me it appears down still….
I read you ate peas….that will suffice. 🙂
Give us a winner tomorrow! 🙂
The real fly has returned from Planet Pluto.
The trading account went to cash 4-5 days ago but the income account is getting kicked so I feel your pain.
The mental damage is far worse than the financial damage and unfortunately the comments on this blog only make it worse.
You always do best when your balls are in a vice and I’m sure it’ll be the same this time.
Looking forward to your victory lap.
Straightforward in documenting the losses as well as the wins, like Buddha, goose stepping down the path of enlightenment.
Crack spread is at all time high
I think this is 1998. A quick large decline, then back up within a month or 3. I don’t know how long it will last, but I would bet the S&P will be at 1450 within a year if not sooner.
The Powers That Be are not concerned because they know that this won’t last. But people are not going to beg for QE 3 until they see their retirement accounts looking like they are going down the drain.
LOL @ this being 1998. This is a depression my friend. there will be no recovery.
All dooms and gloom
Must be the bottom
At what S&P level will even Tea Partiers beg Ben for QE 3? That will be the bottom.
The TP is in gold, douchenozzle.
Don’t worry, tomorrow Bernanke will announce we have sold Alaska to the Chinese for $20 trillion and besides the US paying off all its debts, every citizen gets a check for $100K. Party on pilgrims!
Let’s see, wonder how much the Russians would pay for the State of Washington and/or Oregon? Bloody Bialystok, there is another 25-50k per citizen.
Booyah to everyone, we sell off a few other states maybe Alabami and Ole Miss and nobody over 40 will have to ever work again.
And they tell us we don’t have any more choices left, the jig is up. Hah, I tell ya, Hah!
Shorts are pushing their luck, with the thinly traded futures market.
FLASH: S&P DOWN GRADED HIS MOM’S ASS TO AA+
Unfortunately Qe3, or a big Qe3, would only push against what EU and BOJ, and others, need which is their own currency devaluation or at least stability. Currency wars a coming. Possibility of broader war follows. I think that is similar or a part of what happened in 30s
It is a race to the bttom.
Big fucking rumor that Blackrock has bought the living shio outta the Australian market today sending almost square for the day.
Don’t know anything ore than the rumor.
that’s what you hear? Asia up hard off lows.
yea. That’s the rumors.
Hey Fly, I think it’s time to a Uncle Ben/Rick Ross imitation video.
Got an article in news section backing up those rumors.
naa… but I did get it from 3 different broker schleps. It’s a smallish market and quite incestuous here. they all know when they’re each taking a leak.
The current was below 1 , trading at 99.80 cents and it’s now 102., so something has really happened.
oh shit I should proof read at at times..
the currency was below 1…….
What were the figs priced at?
It went down to .9980 and is now 1.0242.
Is that what you mean, jake?
No, just a lame joke on your “currants.” I was up too late last night.
Assessing the Damage — Including Monday’s action, the Russell 2000 and Mid Cap indices have retreated 24% and 22% respectively since reaching interim peaks on July 7. Since the Russell 2000 was created in the late 70’s, one-month declines of this magnitude have only occurred during the ’08-’09 Financial Crisis, the ’00-02 Tech Bubble unwind, Black Monday in 1987 and Silver Thursday in 1980. Generally, one, three- and six-month forward returns from such points have been positive.
Eff this market. I’m rebuilding a pair of 1950s or 60s Penn Senator 6/0s tonight. Gonna go for some sharks off the Jersey shore surf via kayak friday or saturday night. Anyone know where i can pick up some reel grease in the city? Would rather get everything done before the weekend.
you are mentally handicapped.
Ha. That’s what my mother tells me. Seriously though. I dont want to trek up to midtown tomorrow if they don’t have the grease I need.
I much as I like the other character you play .. all cocky and shit, and of course I’m sure some parts of you feel that way, (I would) I really like it when your humanity shows though, because that’s what I always believed I saw behind the mask in the first place.
Well this is the real me. I just like to talk shit, but not too deep down I care. I care a lot.
Best post ever on IBC. And a great comment also.
We should all care, its our country!
It’s all about the timing… and I’m thinking it might be the right time to time the flip!
boo hoo! cray me a river fly! you were wrong. Plain and simple. Iv’e been wrong before too
Not looking for your pity, but show some fucking respect here or you won’t be here anymore.
Respect — much respect here
I didn’t say I was right Tmoe. I fully acknowledge my incorrect position.
this time heard from a hedgie.. the entire market both in oz and Asia has been blanketed by Morgan Stanley telling their clients that the Fed will announce a massive QE program at 1.pm NY time.
This is what they told me.
Huge rally underway.
Futs up 45 handles off the lows. But will they blend?
Italian bonds page on Bloomberg public page is here yields are down a little.
Dow +281 now …. Panic is an equal opportunity dispenser
305 … at this rate we’ll be up 1000 by the open, LOL
now negative 150 – I don’t think those Europeans liked that last ‘LOL’
I can’t fall asleep right now watching the insanity that is the futures market. Now I might not be able to get the bargains I have lined up. Or is the market going to slap chop me, since it didn’t get me these last two weeks?
And back down they come. Leave it to Europe to fuck up a good overnight futures rally.
The so called Fed speak bounce, if any, will not last beyond Wednesday. Next two days traders can raise cash to buy a-hole covers for future rape sessions.
(p.s. Fly, loved your post. Blessings)
I have it on pretty solid authority that Italy has sold forward 30 years of olive oil to aliens for $30 trillion.
Last time assholes, “I wish you fuckers would quit trying to shake me out.”
Slapping on my full XIV position tomorrow. If it’s not the top in the VIX it’s close enough.
Germany crashing down 7%!
Yeap. And we just evaporated our own 300 point gain in dow futs.
This is why your doctor warned you about being up at 4:30 in the morning, Monsieur.
We don’t want Mrs. Fly finding you one morning, stiffened hand clutching a cup of now cold cawfee, a look of surprise and rage frozen on your face….
Fuck Boehner for not standing up to the tea-partiers. By selling out to those extremists and putting his own interests ahead of his country’s he can take the credit for this shit storm.
s&p gave us the answer, simson boles gave us a plan, commonsence is what we lack, boehner was doing what he thought was right.
Raise Taxes, you damage your credibility by buying into the bullshit that the boy who pointed out the Emperor had no clothes is the one to blame for subsequent monarchial ridicule.
Get back on your Aesop’s, post-haste.
You’ve had things your way for 11 years now and it seems that it hasn’t worked very well.
You have a debt problem. You don’t deal with it by throwing Granny out of the house to starve. You deal with it by everybody tightening their belt a bit plus trying to increase your income.
You need to learn from your history. Your insistence that the way out of this mess does not involve the government increasing its revenue is completely incredible.
Boehner was doing what he thought was right until he realized that he couldn’t sell it to the lunatic fringe. He put his own re-election chances ahead of doing the right thing.
Don’t get me wrong. I think having a strong conservative voice in government is important. But a true conservative believes in paying your way. This right wing borrow and spend bullshit is not even close to my idea of conservative.
When we hit 1077 in the minis we got real extremely oversold on the 30 min to 4 hr chart (the most in weeks) that 1148 print of the late night rally in the minis old support was a oversold bounce to even a number of popular resistance or support at 1150 . If we can hold 1120 to me we can test that resistance again and go from here.
old support of 1159/1160 is resistance we are watching here along with downtrend fwiw.
disclaimer– none of this advice is for Mr. Fly
In case this could help some newer or novice traders I’ll post it again. It really helps and has helped me and others when needed it and is simple compared to a lot of methods.
It’s the simpilest trading methods I know that’s works for frequent and fast traders to accumulate steady gains in any market . To be used with futures mainly or a (spy),(sso) for example during trading hours refering to the minis or S&p for buy/short and sell points.
This method works pretty much all the time unless ( the trader or I fuck it up by waiting a little longer after a trigger point is hit, initiating the trade earlier then set up, or one goes to take a piss for too long.
It’s mostly used for daytrading– Long scalps off the bottom or Short scalps off the top within a preset % of support ranges. It also works for longer daytrades or for swing if there are no huge gaps on the overall market(is always a risk) mostly for swings though. It takes a lot of the excitement of trading and is boring but it works.
Initiate the trade when it gets approximately .33% (or another .% not more then 1% though) in range to each number above or below. With a Stop or stop to cover about .33% up or below figures .
I’m still using these same numbers for my trading 1209/1160/1120/1080 now
with stop(or cover) right below or above figures.
Sell or cover half on any pop or drop to make up the difference from stop/cover price and trade the rest.
When it catches (doesn’t stop me out on 2nd half and moves in the direction my trade is) I Want to be out full position before or when It gets within about .33 % of the next figure and start from the top again.
a few trading examples.
trading using 1209/1160/1120/1080
Stopped out all at 1208.50
Short at 1208
covered half at 1204 (covered stop price)
covered 1/4 at 1180
covered 1/4 at 1167- out trade
Sold half 1166 (covered price covered)
Stopped out half at 1159 -out trade
Short at 1158
covered half at 1155 (covered stop price)
covered 1/4 at 1131
covered 1/4 at 1124- out trade
Long at 1122
stopped out all at 1119 -out trade
Short at 1118
covered half at 1115 (covered stop price)
Covered1/4 at 1095
covered 1/4 1084 -out trade
Short at 1079
stop covered all at 1081 -out trade
Long at 1081
sold half at 1084(covered stop price)
sold 1/4 at 1111
sold 1/4 at 1118
Short at 1119
stop covered all at 1121–out trade
sold half at 1124 (covered stop price)
sold 1/4 at 1140.50
stopped out 1/4 at 1119 – out trade
Short at 1119
covered 1/2 at 1117 (covered stop price)
covered 1/4 at 1100.50
covered 1/4 at 1120.50
Sold 1/2 at 1124 (stop price covered)
Still holding rest
Personally over the past week I been stopped out quite a few times for a loss, sold half and stopped out a few times also and broke even , but which more than makes up for it also got to ride some quick momentum on the ones that went in the direction my trade was placed following this method to the next figure.
By using this method or a similar one , it’s really not about being wrong or right(bull or bear,choosing a side, watching the news till it makes you sick, it’s about applying a short term trading method that works when applied correctly.
Even if one just chooses random numbers say about 2% apart from one another and apply it correctly(which is the hard part) it works and worst case is a break even or very small loss on bad days.
The bad days really just come from human error, I still have some when I use this method(more when I don’t) but they are all from my human error . I don’t use this method all the time but it’s there when I need it.
Some Computers trade in a similar way to this on tighter scales most the time depends how there programmed. The big money ones a majority of the time are set up in much title scales.
This method is definitely not for everyone but if your a frequent trader or trade futures often and don’t have a steady gain boring method that works for you it could maybe help out.
Someone who day trades I followed as a young buck taught me a similar but more complex method.
After following him for a while I moved out of state. He said to me — I’m going to teach you how to fish in any environment so you won’t starve to death, you won’t be around to eat the fish I catch anymore.
He still a better fisherman then me , but I have not starved to death either.
No one gives a crap about this long-winded dribble….start a blog
Wrong again, Vinnie Vega.
good luck to everyone, hope this week ends up better then it start for all the 401k’s out there.
Sorry to take up so much space Mr. Fly . I would have posted that in the Peanut gallery but I don’t know how ,figured maybe it could help one of the readers perhaps it’s what I do when I don’t know what to do and it serves me well.
sorry for any type o’s , I trade nights for the most part and it’s late for me.
Lame excuse, bro.
futures topping 200
gold is lookin toppy, but..lol
God help us all if he gets in again because reading between the lines of his fund raiser speech it looks like more of the same squared.
of all the stimulus spent..it seem that we could of done better. as they all lined up to get there cut of the original tarp, i wonder if any of them had a clue, republicans dems, alike
seems obama trys to fix things with speaches…no plan
Fix things? He is a Marxist – he cannot fix a capitalist system. The French debt CDS costs have risen – ominous for Europe and the USA. S&P seems hell bent on down grading everybody – what a destructive group – junk was AAA on the way up and now they are helping to melt down the world.
Obama is a Right Wing REPUBLICAN. He EXPANDED the ludicrous Afghanistan war,
caved on a public option, extended the Bush Tax Cuts, refused tp prosecute War Criminals
Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld, and refuses to murderize the Tea Partiers.
Plus he is one GUTLESS COWARD.
Wow, you are to the left of Obama?
How’s that teepee living treating you, btw?
He’s too far gone, Jake – there is no hope for him. A zebra cannot change its stripes and Obama is a Marxist zebra. The whole political argument is about size and power of government – government is Obama’s religion and life and entire reason for existence.
Agreud. And to his (only) credit, he’s relatively honest about his predelictions.
Which is why it’s even more baffling that he got elected in the first place.
He won’t get in again. Elections are all about incumbants, and judging from this one, there’s a snowball’s chance in hell that he gets re-elected, especially during a depression, which is what we are headed into.
Some big numbers this week, including retail sales (Jul) and consumer sentiment (Aug).
Care to venture a guess as to what those might look like
My guess is he starts instituting fire side chats to help bring the country along out of the crisis using his natural warmth and empathy.
(Clean burning natural gas fake fireplace of course).
You’re too optimistic Sir Gint. My guess runs more along the lines of martial law when the riots start in a couple weeks, rolling out his newly minted internal security force and then finallu suspending elections next year. just sayin………
That’s probably the only kind of leadership he understands.
Well, it’s historically proven that there can be no state socialism without state coercian to make it “work.”
The amount of socialism will generally correlate with the amount of coercian, which will then usually correlate with an equivalent slow down in growth.
It’s tough to make the car go forward with the parking break yanked to its limit.
LLNW, down -28% might b worth a look, they missed, but could pop from down here..
Just buy AAPL
Nice call Livermore !!!
I would rather have seen a gap down and a panic low mid AM (just like 10/20/87).
That would have made a classic bottom.
This opening kinda sucks.
It’s the LTCM bottom. Long and strong 4TW.
Seems like the market is just waiting for their last hope, Bernanke, to disappoint them…then we’ll be down another 10%.
Much like the 666 bottom in the s&p, yesterday was down 6.66% marking the bottom
seems like we r rollin over
is it better to buy SPY put at bounce?
better than what, i cant see direction
than buy VXX or TZA put or TNA call for down side protection
It looks to me like the trading is going on pretty much TradeBot v. TradeBot.
I bet the dark pool and off exchange volume is as much as the NYSE volume.
Joe Schmuck is long gone.
Who has penicillin??
My WNR is on fiah!!
Off the sidelines this morning, picked up RSH, WNR, and MCP all with fairly tight stops. This is a very short term trade, just hoping to bank some coin on a bounce and then take my ball and go home!!
SMH is setting up for a good day short.
Thanks for being honest, one of the best trading posts i have read in a long time.
diary of samsonite acting like a hot shot now would be awesome so when he falls on his face it will make it that much better.
WTF you talkin’ ’bout BOY? Make some sense or hit the road.
I think I understand.
Translation: I need new luggage because the wheels are broke on my Samsonite.
it makes perfect sense if you have been around IBC long enough. And who the hell are you to tell someone to hit the road, this isn’t your site, if anything Fly would ban you for acting like the chief and undermining his authority.
The dimwit’s comment was unintelligible. Professional code breakers couldn’t decipher it.
bot clne small pos
Well today is it….Mortal Kombat of the Nymph with her US Dollar vs THE CLAM. Market is up big before the FOMC minutes so the crowd is expecting the Clam to win…we will see.
I bet on the Nymph.
The Clam gets crunched on a KO (a left hook to the beard) in 7 rounds.
Lack of leadership = crisis gets worse
Nymph 1……The Clam 0
obama gave a speech about that,,lol
He read it off the teleprompter and it was in a room with nobody present except the filming crew.
I think it depends if the clam is a “steamer” (AKA softshell clam), or a Quahog (AKA, hard as hell old clam that makes great chowder and you could run over the shell with an 18 wheeler 80,000 pound semi-truck without chipping the shell.
Nymph, you might win against a steamer, you will not win against Ben the Quahog!
Alpha, Trader and Yogi…Yogi..I had no idea about Clams, lol, we will see how strong that shell is. Alpha and Trader…I hope to have his spine in my hands by the end of the day, Yet, if he has mine and the US Dollar’s in his it really isn’t good at all for the USA, well good for GS and TIF but not our country, imho….have to go and get ready for Kombat….
FLY, do you ever consider downside protection once this pop is over? assuming we don’t get QE3 today.
Pretty succinct summation of the last 2-1/2 years of leadership from DC.
I see at least 10 years of this crap in our future (the lost decade) if, and only if, we the people can find intteligent life forms to populate the halls of congress and the white house.
Our odds are not very good.
it has been 10yrs of spending that got us here,,
wow there talkin the language of the fed, hum, i thought they spoke english,
Although I do not agree with you quite often both in style and substance I have to commend you on your latest post.
I am cutting and pasting it in order that I use it as a constant reminder that losses are part of our business and the fact that your persistance, tenacity and confidence will dwarf these losses.
Although I have been trading forever I still must fight the tremendous temptations to break my rules because that may have worked before, forgetting all of the times it didn’t work.
Thank you for your insightful post!
Fly your’e still not really seeing it. Your mistake isn’t in any one bad decision here or there. It’s not in failing to sense some mystical shift in the market. It’s in the false belief that you can somehow pull in a 16+% annual return on anything other than sheer luck. Sooner or later the law of averages catches up to you, and you revert back to the mean. Your brilliance as a money manager, no matter how stellar, might account for a few points of alpha at most. The rest is dumb luck.
Sooner or later this will happen to you again, and it will keep happening until you let go of your douchebag bravado (and turn iBankCoin into Calculated Risk).
That would be like the 3rd time…. it’s not working buddy.
Fly, Let us handle your light work. — double banned Fuckstick!
I bought some Chinese BORN bullshit for earnings tomorrow. Complete gambling Chinese lotto tickets style.