_____________________________
What do you know? After trying to fake me out by blasting past my $79.80 target today, the dollar capitulated and sold off deep to about $79.25 at the lows. It’s now about $79.40.
I think earl and gold are the plays here right now, and if you are not in my two “Samurai 7” earl plays, COP and PBR, then you want to really think hard about them tomorrow. That COP is just too phat at 8x trailing earnings and a nice yield to boot.
Moreover, I think it’s safe to say that SLW was the call for today. Unfortunately, as I recounted in the comment section of my last post, I missed my buy stop by about ten cents. See what happens when you try to get finicky like that? I think I’m better off just buying at market sometimes.
In any case, the PM trade seems to be back on for now, and besides my favorite silvers like AG and EXK, I would be looking to the gold juniors, specifically GDXJ (the ETF) and AXU and BAA if you can stomach the volatility. Otherwise, AUY, GG and RGLD are looking good here, Lucy.
Best to you all.
_____________________________________________________________
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Thanks Senator!
Gold keeps testing the low 1700s and finding support so far. I love it when I happen to catch a reversal unfolding in the PMs. It’s an unusual day when the mining ETFs outperform GLD but that’s what happened yesterday. I thought higher oil was not good for production costs for miners?
I actually think earl has been a big reason the miners have been lagging the commodity prices. So I think a higher earl price is actually baked in to a certain extent. Remember that a higher commodity price also obviates some increases on the cost side.
___
Do you have an opinion on GLDX; is the volume too light to bother with?
Have not looked at it. If its low volume I generally eschew it.
___
good interview:
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/2/17_Dr._Keith_Barron.html
grabbed some junk silver jic
thanks goldfinger
I could have closed out both RGLD and PBR yesterday. Instead I ended up adding.
Yesterday’s turnaround came right when it needed to.
Thank you sir,
Hey Jake,
You reading anything into the miner reversal today? Or just par for the course with these things? We do have options expiration before a long weekend…
Oh yes, and thanks as always.
I am always wary of taking options expiry and “pre-three day weekend” trading very seriously. In this case we have both.
Meanwhile, the dollar hasn’t really strengthened much and earl is up again. I’ve noticed over time that when the dollar is breaking down, often commodities will take turns running up, almost as if to hide what is really going on from an inflationary standpoint.
___________
Thinking traders will selloff NUGT today before the 3-day weekend…so much for those +9% gains intraday Thursday. However, if it’s substantial, could present a buy-the-dip-at-the-close opportunity.
Agreuuuud.
______
Jake,
what say you about AXU? I have it in the tourney as well as my portfolio? is it better positioned than AUY? TIA
It certainly looks to be this week!
Listen, I almost took AXU, and changed my mind at the last moment, really for one reason — volatility.
It could kill one week and be down the next. AUY has been relatively stable (it’s a lot bigger of course) so I went w. that.
We shall see. Who are you against this week?
_______
If that wasn’t clear, it was not a comment about AXU as an investment, only as a contestent in a limited time tournament.
I like AXU long term very much.
_________
appreciate your take, Jake. I will continue with it my long term port even after the tourney.
I was up against GDP, SPY and ROC in the EAST bracket. looks like I am thru. AXU so far is not blowing off it’s wad that aggressively which is what I want. Thanks Cap’n
You are only playing against one guy at a time… who were you against?
___________
SG — you won!
You beat out Eddie Jr. by about 75 basis points or so.
Next week you are going againt “RLampkin” and ROC.
You’ve lived to see another day…
________
“Michael Palin” (lol) has a new post up on youtube.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8Afv3U_ysc&feature=channel_video_title
Hi Jake, what is your target for GDXJ this year ? Thanks.
Low thirties first, then high thirties, maybe more, depending on your time frame.
Thanks. My time frame is the end of this year : )