iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,318 Blog Posts

Opulence Has Returned

Florid gains offset my aversion to risk, sitting with an old man’s portfolio of 77% cash on this day of decadence, the day America fired cannons into the sky to eliminate the few bears left hiding out in zeppelins. Grandiloquent gains were had in anything related to Facebook today. Names like GSVC, SVVC, HTGC, STVI, ZNGA shot higher. And, social media names tagged along, enriching those who dared to be long names like TUDO, JIVE etc.

One thing is for certain, “The Fly” will be celebrating the gilded era this weekend, amidst bottles of the finest wine and beluga caviar. There will be splendour and then some more. A blizzard of momentum has suffocated and drown out all of the negativity that was broadcasted and strewn across media outlets in 2011. Although I am extremely cautious here, as demonstrated by my old man’s portfolio, my feelings are meaningless. The caprices of others, people much younger and less jaded than I, will do what they like. It is not cowardice to stop eating after a hearty meal; but it is gluttonous to ask for dessert.

All of the stocks that are rising today is what one might call the very lowest of the low. We have boat races taking place between MOTR and MTOR, while chinese burritos stocks make a resurgence as if their accounting scandals never happened. When the market wants higher, it crushes those who oppose it and make fools out of the people who were cautious.

I’ve had my share of hyper bull runs and I used to be ignorant to the prospects of market drawdowns. There was a time, not too long ago, when I would have been 200% leveraged into all of the high fliers, shitting on every person on this planet in the process. But in order to do that, I would have to accept the other side of the blade, whenever it swung back around.

Longevity is often overlooked and in the business of money management the big returns are praised the most. Aside from last year, I’ve enjoyed mondo gains since 2003, making many times my money since then. I endeavor to outperform this year, but will do so on my terms, not off the superfluities of the unwashed, uninformed hack. I will attain triple digit returns in 2012, because I am destined to do so. You can bet against me if you like and you might have fun doing so. But in the end, “The Fly” wins all the time, in voluminous fashion, even when he is losing. The balance of the earth, moon and the stars are tilted in his favour and there is nothing you or your stupid friends can do about it.

Top pick: SODA
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124 comments

  1. xxxHuggieBearxxx

    I am holding my short positions…i refuse to sell out with the OB where it is, and with greece very possibly on the cusp of a messy default.

    If I die, I die.

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  2. insidetrader

    mountain lakes, nj. is for you.

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  3. Dj

    Is there an ETF that tracks all your holdings… perhaps a tripple leveraged one?

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  4. jimmy_two_times

    would you initiate a SODA position here?

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  5. Yabollox

    Organic beluga caviar and fine organic wines from WFM?

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  6. LD

    The FB IPO inspires a wee bit of ‘don’t get left out’ hysteria. I wonder how long it will last.

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  7. xxxHuggieBearxxx

    Well, thats all she wrote….a miserable end to a terrible week in a brand new horrific month.

    Time to tally the damage.

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    • xxxHuggieBearxxx

      Down 4.5% for the year….feels like 30%.

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      • Po Pimp

        If you’ve been short through all this and only down 4.5% why are you whining like a little bitch? Try a nice 20% drawdown only to make it up plus some before you come looking for sympathy.

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        • Bravo

          I have to agree. From the way you were whining, I thought you had a drawdown > 30%….

          Down 4.5%??????

          STFU

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  8. DJMarcus

    fly, at October lows, you mentioned the rubber band theory. At what point is this rubber band too extended here to the upside?

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    • The Fly

      We are way too extended here

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      • DJMarcus

        thx as always. any reason why not buy more short exposure?

        stocks like ZLC are very poor fundamentally and have not rallied with the market.

        and what kind of event would you imagine putting the markets on edge? Seems like no one cares about Greece anymore. I get the feeling that even if Greece were to leave the EU, bulls would buy markets and put a positive spin on it, such as claiming the EU is stronger.

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        • Dj

          Marcus just short US AIRWAYS and watch it crumble to pieces. and while you are at it short EWG too… and dont look at it for a while. This shit will end, sometime soon. And there are no events required.

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      • TeahouseOnTheTracks

        short term but not much more than that …

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  9. dvae

    The Fly’s prose is as expressive as Nathan Layne’s eyebrows.

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  10. Po Pimp

    All of the stocks that are rising today is what one might call the very lowest of the low

    $ATPG would like to have a word with you good sir. When that piece of shit spikes, then you know the top is in.

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  11. Bullish

    Your moderation feature is very strange. Any reference to “b a l l s” being removed seems to get my comments held.

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    • Bullish

      Where’s the Vegas traders? Hope all is well.

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      • Bobby Boucher

        Speaking of those who are M.I.A., where is the one posting as devildog? Was it ever determined that he is the same creature of lore who was blown up by his short positions in 2009?

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      • TeahouseOnTheTracks

        VegasTraderII … We warned him!

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        • Bullish

          Good thing he told ALL of his friends and family to sell all of their stocks, gather large quantities of canned goods and margin your accounts with TZA.

          This is what happens when you watch too much Glen Beck.

          I can only imagine how the family Christmas party will go next year.

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          • Po Pimp

            He will go down in infamy for cutting off his balls and using them as dice at the craps table.

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          • Bobby Boucher

            I know of one house where Christmas is going to be cancelled this year.

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      • Po Pimp

        We got those bitches.

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  12. charlie

    Triple digits, without options or margin?

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  13. TeahouseOnTheTracks

    OEW Roadmap:

    “Today’s gap up opening, the third one this week, jumped right over the uptrend high at SPX 1333 confirming the Minor wave 4 low at 1300. We are now counting Minor wave 5 completing Minute wave i at SPX 1321 and Minute wave ii at 1307. The rally from tuesday’s low is part of Minute wave iii. We expect this Minute wave to subdivide a bit, just like the other Minute wave iii’s during this uptrend. When our short term OEW charts turned positive on tuesday we did some fibonacci calculations using SPX 1300 as Minor 4 low. We arrived at four price levels for a potential Minor wave 5/uptrend high: SPX 1367, 1381, 1408 and 1432. The first two, and last one, are near the 1363, 1386 and 1440 OEW pivots respectively. The SPX 1408 level is in between the two higher pivots, but was clustered with another fibo relationship which increases its importance. Therefore, we expect this uptrend, from the November SPX 1159 low, to end at or near one of these levels.”

    Initial target 1370 with potential to reach 1430 … Another great week and another coming!

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  14. dave

    This jobs number is horseshit. The only that matters is tax receipts in regards to government spending/redistribution. If you were unemployed and get a job making less than you were before… well that should tell you something. I haven’t heard jack shit in the media comparing tax receipts versus previous years.

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  15. Mr. Partridge

    Dr,
    You should watch The Artist, I think you will like it… 1929 era

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  16. mike

    where is alf?

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  17. History

     “The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance.”   –  Cicero   – 55 BC

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  18. JTU

    Nasdaq hits an eleven year high!
    It took this long to get to here!

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  19. Bullish

    Fine wine and Chateaubriand steak cooked Hibachi style, it’s the only way to cap off this week.

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    • Po Pimp

      Three blonde, long-legged, Russian bombshells with nice racks and a side order of Colombia’s finest powder can do in case you’re all out of Hibachi style steak.

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      • drummerboy

        Po, i got some wicked stories of just what you speak,from back in the day.which are not to be told,in any way shape or form.

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    • Morton

      Your crimes against steak will be remembered.

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  20. JTU

    Tom DeMark says we’rew almost done!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pErflC2snoM&feature=player_embedded

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  21. Bobby Boucher

    Were we done when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? No, we weren’t. And the market’s not done either. Not done oing higher that is.

    Take a look at the weekly chart of $RUT going back to October 2007 and note the huge ascending triangle formation. The price target of said ascending triangle is ~1,350 on the $RUT. Not saying we get there in a straight line (though to people like huggiebear it must feel like we will). But we will get there within the next 2 years, imho. Ask Mr. P about what kind of market we’re in.

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    • The Fly

      Lol

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      • fake amish

        cue the gravestones. is the recent rush of ultimate bulltards a sign?

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    • Mr. Partridge

      Thanks Bobby…
      I can repeat FOR THE UNWASHED:

      THIS IS A BULL MARKET, FAILURE TO UNDERSTAND WILL COST YOU $$…

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      • Bobby Boucher

        I’m a fan of JL, too. Have read Reminiscences at least 20 times. Have also read ‘How to Trade In Stocks’ more than a few times.

        Been trading for 7 years now and must say that after year 6 I gave up individual stocks in favor of etf’s. Am finally figuring out what JL meant when he wrote ‘the big money is made in the big swings’. Just seems to me that when picking individual stocks that I have to get 2 things right; 1) the general trend of the market and 2) the right stock. With an etf I have to get only #1 right and after 7 years of trading I’ve become good enough at getting #1 right to make money.

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      • TeahouseOnTheTracks

        INDEUD!

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  22. The Fly

    Aggressive accounts should be up no less than 30% this year.

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  23. dave

    I’m not a Facebook user. Has anyone on this site done anything that could make them money?

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    • Lurker

      I believe their main revenue generation comes from advertising, mainly to the coveted 18-34 crowd. If I’m not mistaken, and I could be, that’s how Google impaled all who opposed their market moves.

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  24. Cascadian

    I’m +23% YTD.

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  25. dave

    I have no love love or hate for Cramer, but read this…

    And for those of you who questioned how I could be a business columnist and yet be such a sap, James Cramer, the host of “Mad Money” on CNBC and founder of the financial Web site TheStreet.com, disclosed that he paid a higher rate than I do. He forwarded an e-mail from his accountant estimating that he paid 45 to 50 percent of his adjusted gross income in income taxes in 2010. Mr. Cramer’s taxes are especially high — and complicated — because he lives in New Jersey and works in New York and New Jersey, so he pays income taxes in both high-tax states (and gets a credit on his New Jersey return for his New York taxes). Most of Mr. Cramer’s income is earned, and thus is fully taxed. Although he had capital gains, they were offset by losses. “The best way to have everyone pay their fair share is to tax all income (whether earned or unearned) at the same rates,” his accountant, Jeffrey Rosenthal, said.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/102-tax-rate-takes-cake-160010322.html?l=1

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    • The Fly

      Dave

      What is the point of posting that dross? No one cares and no one wants to pay more to this corrupt government. You should be asking for lower taxes not higher.

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      • Jakegint

        Dave’s a putz.

        Only a putz would attempt to herald a schmuck who gives 50% of his income to Uncle Sugar as some kind of a mensch.

        Oh, and Cramer’s accountant is a putz, too.
        ___________

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        • dave

          I didn’t make a comment one way or the other as to the issue of taxation. I was merely pointing out something reported as fact. I don’t think anyone should be taxed over 30% in total taxation regardless of how much they make. You can hoard your money or give it all away for all I care. Government should not be in the business of redistributing wealth.

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    • hillary climtoon

      oh like I believe Cramer and his accountant..BWAHAHAHAHAHA

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  26. Whaler31

    Le Fly,

    I love your recent portfolio moves, and your allotment reasoning.

    It is a great lesson in market disipline.

    Please don’t soil your reputation, fall in, and drink the kool-aid.

    Just remember where you were in November/December.

    This market is so beyond reality.

    A razors edge, and one push the wrong way=loss of wealth avalanche.

    Hmm…Israel and Iran, perhaps?

    Greedy space aliens are at the gate of the estate.

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    • Dr Fly

      Whaler

      I have little reason to jump in because I am up 18%. It is much different for me this time around.

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      • Whaler31

        I agree with you, and I am very impressed with your ass kicking year (so ridiculous…)

        I guess I just don’t want to see you get hosed.

        Think about this, folks.

        In the last month, Cramer has gone from Defcon 2, then sell into strength, and now, this is a real bull market, buy buy buy!

        Seriously, go on vacation for the next 11 months. 18% is god-like for big money in this market milieu of cons.

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        • The Fly

          Incidentally, I just booked a vacation for late Feb.

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          • hillary climtoon

            beluga? been illegal since 2005…guess you don’t do much caviar eh?
            It’s called Petrossian..57th street..you’re welcome…cheers!

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          • CalgaryG

            In one of the most intricately decorated buildings in NYC,too. See also Russ and Daughters, near Katz’s, on East Houston.

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      • rru2s

        What I see as “different” isn’t that this bull cycle can last forever; as always fate will show us the exit door sooner or later. Rather, what is different from summer of 2009 and fall 2010 is the following:

        The January stock market rebound was not a direct outcome of stimulus, but rather a fortuitous combination of 3 separate factors:
        (1) Starting right after the October 3 lows in the stock market, Europe is positioning itself for the largest QE in world history. Germany and France know that huge backstopping is a medium-term tool that is needed, but they wanted to extract the maximum in long term concessions and fiscal reforms along this road. The $600B funding is but one step along the road, and that step indirectly gives the stock market a green light as memories of how stimulus helped the US are quite fresh.
        (2) Obama’s Fed team have made several visits to the European decisionmakers in the last few months. What the Fed fears most is a European crisis that creates a crisis of confidence in US markets, due to the potential for a snowball effect on investment in banks, which in turn triggers more recessionary and liquidity reactions.
        (3) Iran’s threat to close the Straits of Hormuz triggered a bunch of chest-beating by the United States Iran, with reverberations in both Europe and China. Both by accident and by design, the actions of Iran and the responses of the US have had a net impact that helps the oil market and the price of all commodities have tagged along as an aftereffect.
        (4) The threat to close the Strait, but yet without Iran engaging in any war-provoking mining of the strait like they had done in the past, suggests Iran wanted to escalate tension and hence increase the price of its oil for export. President Obama threatened more sanctions after his cabinet determined this was a win-win situation which creates tension in oil markets and increases oil stock prices, and simultaneously scores political points for pretending to beat his chest and rabbling sabers with Iran over their nuclear program. Not coincidentally a rise in oil and commodity stocks and a public display of rejection of Iranian oil are both very fortuitous events during an election year.
        (5) The side benefits of the Hormuz threat and the US sanction threat are that, after European nations expressed lip service agreement to the idea of sanctions, Iran would have a HUGE drop in customer demand for its oil. As a direct result, China which is trying desparately to control inflation so that they can restimulate their economy in a sluggish period, was able to exert greater bargaining power for cheaper oil prices from Iran. So China gets cheaper oil, which helps to hold down oil-related inflation, and their government is justified in loosening bank reserve ratios and liquidity for loan-making, and as a result China’s stock market rebounds.

        World events often have a way of unfolding in a manner by which all parties get some benefits – the Euro-fear contagion disease is temporary held in restraint as the US stock market decouples for a while, Obama and European leaders get credit for playing hardball with Iran, and China gets to position for new economic easing during a year of change and transition to new party leadership.

        And the feedback loop will continue for several months as all the players are getting something out of this game. Hence the rally continues.

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        • drummerboy

          #5 was the first thing that came to mind,when this whole stage show decided to take it on the road. they are literally giving china cheap oil,nuff said. totally agree on #4. as for the rest,pure crap showmanship to say the least.

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        • MCPJ

          Most importantly is that 2012 is an election year and and our CIA robot of a president will be pushed to reelection by the banking cartel via a “recovered” economy, high stock prices, “low” unemployment etc.

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          • rru2s

            The banking cartel pushing reelection, when it is their lobbyists who have fought tooth and nail against investment banking reform, against controls on credit card fees, and against confirming the head of the consumer protection bureau? I guess the old saying applies, “keep your enemies closer than your friends”.

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  27. Don Rickles

    Hey,is anybody experiencing this bizarre cursor behavior on iBC?

    The cursor is invisble, as to where you are when typing.

    I am using Windwos 7 and Windows Explorer 9..no speed/equipment issues on this side.

    Does not happen on any other platform, or website.

    Anyone?? (Bueller, Bueller….Bueller

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4zyjLyBp64

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  28. alf44

    I been run down …

    I been lied to …

    And, I let that mean woman make me a fool !

    She took ALL my money …

    And my new car !

    Now she’s with one of my “good time buddies” …

    Just drinkin’ in some cross-town bar !!!

    Sometimes I feel …

    SOMETIMES … I FEEL …

    Like I been tied … to tha whippin’ post …

    TIED … to tha whippin’ post …

    TIED … to tha whippin’ post …

    GOOD GAWD I FEEL LIKE I’M DYIN’ !!!

    .

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  29. JTU

    The jobs numbers released today by the BLS may actually be just BS!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCA8tR99ORA&feature=player_embedded

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  30. hillary climtoon

    ” Ah dear readers…please acknowledge me, validate me, for I find, try as I might I cannot validate myself.I am really a frightened insecure little man who hides behind a screen of dots and dashes.”

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    • The Fly

      Well then, perhaps you would like to enlighten us all who you are and why I should be taking your advice?

      I await your answer.

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  31. Cheesetrader

    How about some Kaskade or RJD2 around these parts

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  32. razorsedge

    i see only 2 things that could end this run. iran, europe. im going back to gold and related trades

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    • MCPJ

      well those would ruin the year

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    • Mr. Partridge

      I don’t agree, it’s bull market you know
      plus it is an election year, since 1928 only 3 times election year returns were negative.

      By the way so far #1 outperforming stock market in the world is Greece, the worst geo-political cluster-fuck, pardon my
      French.

      Happy holding,
      Mr.P

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  33. Blind Read Ant

    Another gin and tonic (thx DJ Fly).

    Also, who won 2011 AssHat AWard?

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