Since I’ve been trading on pure religion, over the past 3 months, I thought it made sense to look under the hood of this market, to examine if we are primed for a good old fashioned “homo hammer.”
First, we shall explore breadth.
Today’s PPT breadth reading of 27.4% was the lowest since 11/30/10. What happened on 12/1/10? Look it up fuckface. I’m not your blog servant.
The percentage of large caps rated “buy” stands at 37%, nothing special about that number.
Moving onto the credit markets, they are a mess. Yields have shot up and my Risk Appetite Index is now hovering at $100, off from a high of $105. Realistically, it’s not the end of the world, considering where rates were two years ago.
Looking at my Raw Commodity index, it is very bullish. Natural gas is up more than 7%, over the past week, with coal and lithium trailing 1-3% points behind. Notable laggards are sugar and cocoa, down 9% and 4.7% respectively (think HSY). It’s worth noting, natural gas is up 12%+ over the past two weeks. Over the past month, coffee, lithium and lead are the biggest winners, all up low double digits.
Moving onto individual equities with market caps above $5 billion, MCP, MTL, ANR and WLT are the biggest winners, over the past week. Over the past two weeks, MCP, YPF, ANR and NXPI are your biggest winners. Again, with exception to NXPI, commodity related stocks are clearly the outperformers.
The biggest losers are RBS, COH and EXPE.
The only minor outlier are the semis, with marginal weakness in the shares of LRCX, KLAC, STX and AKAM. Since this market is being led by tech and commodities, it’s important to identify potential chinks in the armor, so to say.
In short, the health of this rally appears to be robust, sans weakness in select tech names.
High beta names setting up for a big move include: MINI, MWW, JOSB, MCHP, HUSA, VECO, CSIQ, GNK and N. The Overall PPT score has not registered an OVERSOLD reading in ages, which is rare. Clearly we are due for a pullback at some point. The question is, why now?
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