Risk is Always Acceptable

I don’t mind losing money. I really don’t. Throughout the years, I’ve lost so much money, I am numb to the process. On the eyes of God himself, I am grateful that my wins have outstripped my longs by a factor of 1 trillion, life to date, allowing me to speak to you in a very condescending tone.

I’m buying airlines today, fairly decent size too. I cannot remember the last time I bought airlines, since I fucking hate the sector. But, with oil “high as fuck” up here and WORLD PEACE on the verge of happening, one could only surmise that airlines will be making some coin here.

Crack spreads continue to widen, now up almost 2% for the day to $24.30. I have no idea why VLO and WNR are weak. However, I do know where those stocks will be in 2 weeks: higher.

For a +140 day, the action is tepid. I mean, most stocks are up; but the tone is somewhat gay. Then again, there is a shot that Tokyo will become a wasteland. I surmise that is not good for “global growth.” All in all, as always, “The Fly” endeavors to outstrip you, in all things to do with finance. Some of you manage little baby hedge funds or have piker books of business, acting all sophisticated and shit. The reality is, you are nothing more than a huckster. I spit, mind you, into your clam chowder.

Top picks: LCC, DAL, TER, WNR, VLO, MAS

I bought both DAL and LCC.

Disclaimer: If you buy DAL or LCC because of this post, Libya will declare a “no fly zone” in the United States, rendering our airlines useless. And, you may lose money.

While drinking guinness yesterday, one of my friends( who is a cop) was telling a story of a guy he arrested who fended off 35 cops for 15 minutes. This gentleman was on angel dust (PCP) and was out of his mind crazy. He has no idea what was going on, nor did he feel any pain. They’d shoot him with taser darts and he’d simply rip them out of his chest (he had no shirt), screaming like King Kong. He was covered with his own blood and was tossing cops around like dog bones. He even took one of their guns, but had no idea what it was, simply tossing it aside, as he raged towards police reinforcements.

This market is that guy on PCP, simply tossing shit aside. Nuclear meltdowns? PFFFFFFFF. Revolution in the middle east? PFFFFFFx2. There is NOTHING that will stop excess liquidity aka dust, created and amply provided by the Federal Reserve.

I believe the market is safe to invest in again, as the master politician Ghaddafi (sp?) pisses on the UN resolution and the House of Saud gives their population 2 months of monetary bonus.

On these developments, AND MORE, I expect to make a great deal of money today.

I will be back to lamenting about the world’s problems tomorrow. Shutting it down, like a leprechaun with his pot of gold and a Guinness, holding 45% cash.

I bought 50,000 VLO and 35,000 TER.

I think you know why stocks are up today. It’s not because the Japanese plugged in their retarded nuclear bomb plant or because we were oversold. We are going up because Wall Street loves to celebrate the best holiday ever invented: St. Patrick’s day. It wouldn’t matter if Martians were laser beaming people’s faces off right now, stocks would trade higher.

I will have you know, “The Fly” is ever so busy, cooking his corned beefs with beer, alongside some potatoes and cabbage. I am an expert, Sir, in the field of cooking on St. Patrick’s day. Moreover, I am even better at drinking myself idiotic. For the remainder of the day, you should all assume “The Fly” is drunk and not really meaning what he says or does.

So the marker is BANG-ZOOMING and I am 250% leveraged long WNR in my personal, which by the way is at ALL-TIME HIGHS, now up around 10% for the year. As for all of my other shit, it’s mainly in WNR, MAS, VLO and cash.

The math is very simple:

Market goes up= Fly is rich.

Market goes down= Fly is rich.

Market never opens again= Fly is rich.

So, with that in mind, I don’t really give a shit about today’s tape. I am interested in drinking beer and laughing at my dinner guests. Oh, now you know why I opted for cash instead of hedges via shorting. You cannot beat a clam in his body of water. It’s best to get out of the water sometimes and piss on him.

What do you think is happening to large Japanese institutions and insurance firms? They have massive exposure to equities and will likely need to start unwinding soon. This is where the potential systemic risk lies, which is why you should be avoiding equities.

For example, Nomura Holdings owns 35% of FIG.

Why am I stubbornly long WNR, in the midst of crisis?

Two reasons:

The refiners are isolated to the U.S. market. At the same time, they profit from supply disruptions in Japan. Very soon, Japan will be importing vast quantities of refined crude. The second reason is profit margins. For the refiners, the only thing that counts is the crack spread. Right now, it is at record highs, above $23. Check crack spread prices here. It’s worth mentioning, The PPT automatically calculates the crack spread and applies said score to the refining sector.

While gold/silver might make sense now, there is a distinct possibility that this market may start to unwind, effectively fucking “large crowd” trades. In other words, your local hedge fund manager is willing to risk, oh, another 3-5% before he heads for the exits. I rather get out early than die late.

The top rated stocks, inside of The PPT, based upon technicals, are the following:

WNR, iPGP, ACI, LNG, COG, PAY, BTU, ADS and CHK

NOTE: PESI has been weak. But look what they do.

Crack spreads are up 5.5% right now. As you know, my largest position is WNR. For my personal account, it is my only position.

Today, small cap oil is up. But that is not a safe haven. I expect the price of oil to trade lower. I expect everything but refiners, treasuries and the dollar to trade down.

In summary, the safe havens are refiners,  treasuries and the dollar.

Any questions?

Good.

I don’t feel like worrying about stocks today. I will make a real effort to keep my 60% cash position intact. While the Swiss Franc makes new highs versus the dollar, you idiots look to buy dips. While nuclear power plants melt the fuck down, turning Japan into a wasteland, you buy dips.

You are the type of person that would give instructions in your will to buy dips upon your unfortunate death.

I have a great interest in napping. Rich folk need rest, for there is much work to be done later on. Plus anyway, I mustn’t go without proper sleep ahead of National Beer day (St. Patrick’s Day).

Bottom line: I am now a nuclear scientist and I am telling you that power plant at Fukushima is going to explode. It’s like a fucking terrorist dream come true. For the record, if you still like uranium stocks, you’re an idiot!