iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,846 Blog Posts

Dreading the Week Ahead

On Monday our congressional “super committee” will announce they are fucking idiots and cannot operate a government. Their task was to cut spending over a 10 year period in order to avoid being “the next Greece.” We aren’t in danger of becoming “the next Greece” until we have Japanese style debt/GDP numbers, in my opinion. Nonetheless, their failure to cut waste in government spending is just one more reason for you to stockpile guns and dry food.

Raising taxes in order to finance more government corruption is nonsensical. The people who tell you “rich people are getting a free ride” should fuck themselves. Last I checked, my quarterly estimated tax payments are more than most of those assholes annual salaries.

Moving on.

Europe is the joke that keeps delivering punchlines, accentuated by whimsical rim-shots. It befuddles me how this topic keeps dragging on. A few weeks ago it seemed the EFSF was the saving grace for all of the malcontents in Europe. Then Italian and Spanish yields blew out, causing alarm amongst those with short fuses. Remember, the ECB is interested in making money, not just saving their asses. It makes a lot of sense to allow Italian and Spanish bonds trade lower, in order to buy them up on the cheap. The problem with this strategy is the notion of contagion. People think this is getting out of control and have begun taking aim at France, due to French exposure to Italy. As a matter of fact, bonds yields across Europe, sans Germany, have been rising.

The ECB needs to decide on a definitive course of action. Either they unify under one banner and issue EU bonds or dissolve the partnership. The German leader, Merkel, seems only interested in her political viability and might just tell everyone to fuck themselves. Should this happen, the stock market will fall by more than 10% in a single session. If you were around for the “Asian Contagion” back in 1997, this will make that look like a calm tape.

The worst case scenario is so frightening, I try to avoid thinking about it. I have a bad feeling something terrible is about to happen and I am ill prepared to deal with it. I was very much prepared for this eventuality 3-4 weeks ago, but was shaken out of my bear trade with that unfuckingbelievable 1,200 point rally. With my recent luck, I will throw that trade on again and the Germans will decide to comply and fuck me again.

This truly is an untenable situation and I wish this shit would conclude already.

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93 comments

  1. MOTV8

    You might get a bounce to get your burlap on, might not…I wish I could ask John Kerry’s advise.

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  2. Flynhawn2002

    I guess the only way is to hedge agianst this whole fiasco.

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  3. Joe

    Adopt the bleacher creature attitude, and watch the sparks fly w/ popcorn in hand. Haa good luck to everyone w/ the balls to stay in and the ability to ignore the noise.

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  4. Trading_Nymph

    That Oct really pissed me off..for EFSF, remember when it first started to come out. The French Bond/Oats market knew it was garbage as soon as it came out,imho. Only Stupid Equities believed it. But, you know, everytime I get ready for my sweet sell off..some Govt leader comes out and gives the Bulls hope. grrrrrrr.

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  5. dffapa

    This too shall end Poorly! Its the Darwinian purge that all great Markets must endure…..its inevitable. Fuck Europe!

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  6. Damon

    I am finally positioned correctly for Monday.

    But with my luck, the market will rally because of some bizarre headline emanating from no clear news source, which CNBC will repeatedly report on.

    Good luck, all.

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  7. walktothecabin

    Some gorillas never knew that cocaine existed

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  8. Speaking for Neutrinos
    Speaking for Neutrinos

    We must move faster, but will we go anywhere?

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  9. Speaking for Neutrinos
    Speaking for Neutrinos

    We can’t see, we are travelling faster than light!

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  10. kilroy

    Mayor Bloomberg is holding a terrorism-related press conference at 7:30 pm Eastern.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/bloomberg-holding-terrorism-related-press-conference-tonight-2011-11

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  11. uncle har

    it’s deflation all around us. I can recognize it but I don’t know how to deal with it. Frustrating enough and zero help from leadership.

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  12. Vegas Trader II

    S and P breaching 1208 tomorrow will be devastating for the bulls tomorrow. Futs not looking pretty at the moment..

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  13. Vegas Trader II

    “There is a real threat that not only will there be a downgrade but that the market on Monday will look again at Washington and say ‘You guys can’t get the job done,’” Kerry said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” program. “And just the political confusion and gridlock is enough to say to the world ‘America can’t get its act together.’”

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    • Mad_scientist

      Why couldn’t Kerry tell us how to trade on Friday ?! Why did he have to wait til the market was closed? Well, at least he gave us a tip, albeit a late one. Maybe the open will not be too late to get short.

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    • Mad_scientist

      BTW, did he position himself for this while helping to create a deadlock?

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  14. mhass33

    The fact of the matter is governments around the world have misallocated capital for years and years and accumulated debt in the process. The time of reckoning has come. Simply buying bonds in the open market with fake money can only provide a temporary boost in prices, NOTHING more. When the public realizes that the government can’t actually do anything to stimulate the economy, which the public is now realizing, the reckoning will occur. So yeah, this is bad.

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    • Vegas Trader II

      No doubt, VERY BAD..

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      • mhass33

        Actually in the long run its very good. People will learn what sustainability requires.

        This whole ordeal will teach the world that an optimal system DOES occur, and we have to strive to achieve it.

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  15. noodle

    I’ve got a idea – Just ignore Europe. Don’t mention them, and just pretend they don’t exist. The problem will go away.

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    • Heaterman

      That would be the same as ignoring the arrogant, pompous and disconnected blowhards in Washington DC and pretending they will go away. The sad fact though is that for however long we choose to ignore them, they will be screwing us to the floor.

      From time to time some blood must be shed at the roots of the tree of liberty in order to fertilize it and keep it growing…….

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  16. Flicker

    I am getting to the point that I just want to go all in on a directional bet and say fuck it. Double my stack or take me out and shoot me. The last several months has just been a slow drip lower in personal equity and I am just tired of this shit.

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    • Damon

      Flick-

      But that is exactly how the bots at Goldman want it.

      The slow bleed to take away all of your precious assets.

      They sure have some amazing algorithms getting it done on a daily basis.

      My question is: does that money go to the “1%”, or to the nauseating bonuses paid to the thieves? Perhaps a large part of it is feeding the middle east terrorist machine (i.e., Saudi Arabia)

      See the glory of the Royal Scam.

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      • The Plumbers Crack
        The Plumbers Crack

        Ah, nothing like a little Dan to soothe the soul.
        Thanks for the memorable quote… time to fire a doob, put the headphones and chill the fuck out to the Royal Scam!
        Fuck this market!

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        • Damon

          Crack-

          What a relief that someone knows what Becker and Fagen knew long ago (only because that is the old music business model) Billionaire record company exec’s, like like Alpert an Moss (A&M)pretending not to be capitalists.

          I was inside that world, and they are the greediest motherf–kers I will ever meet.

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          • MetalLeg

            They didn’t start out as capitalists but once they get a taste, it becomes an addiction. Artists are the same way. No one is more precious about their music than Donald but no one should for even a second believe he doesn’t like money. Regardless, the music business has nothing on Wall Street.

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          • TeahouseOnTheTracks
            TeahouseOnTheTracks

            Donald may have gotten his degree in English Lit but he must have minored in Marketing.

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          • drummerboy

            no,the dude just never wanted to take the act on the road. thats why skunk left and went to the dobbie bro’s.

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  17. Actuary

    Without closing the tax loopholes, the same super rich still falls through the same cracks. The honest rich are punished. The crooks knew it too well that their dump sheep are pacified and votes guaranteed. Unless there is a head properly positioned on a neck and two shoulders.
    Take intra day trades and sleep good.

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  18. Blind Read Ant

    You’re good in NY.

    But if you’re in west coast, learning some Mandarin and Spanish will help when the government sends your family to their FEMA camps.

    They’re all set and ready to roll. Train tracks here we come, Obama’s ready to exterimate America.

    Guns and dry goods are a start.

    PM for your delay in gaining at least a second Citizenship is the only Plan B I can think of. Get ready.

    The Republicans will call bull shit to the Commies. Socialist’s unrest will be real. It will get ugly. Or fun, if you’re prepared.

    Sleep well!

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    • Frog Playing a Colorful Accordion
      Frog Playing a Colorful Accordion

      Right. Why aren’t you wearing your tinfoil hat in your avatar picture?

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      • Blind Read Ant

        You’ve been BANned from my island located between Nova Scotia and Norway.

        Not even good luck food when you’re turned away.

        By Frog.

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  19. flyaway18

    I really don’t get it. Do you have a sell button on your electronic brokerage account? You all had an opportunity in October to sell, whether you were up or not. If there is no hope as you all claim, then why are you still in? What are you waiting for? Friday was as good a time as any to buy some SKF – granted it looked great at $55 but it also looked good at $68 when it made a nice run. If the market is going to crash the inverses are cheap.

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    • Yogi & Boo Boo

      That makes too much sense. It’s better to wail and gnash teeth, zombie style.

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      • Damon

        Flyaway-

        Cramer said to hang on and go for the big yields!

        Something tells me that those will disappear sooner than later.

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        • flyaway18

          Sure, your vice stocks (PM, MO, LO) and the utilities (DPL wow), REITs, MLPs. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

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          • partridge

            Hey,
            You them traders, lol
            Wankers lmao never happy with anything … market up… oh I am not long enough.. market down – oh I am not hedged or short enough.
            Could have been buy and hold like me: ENB TRP or other 7 pipelines lol

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          • TeahouseOnTheTracks
            TeahouseOnTheTracks

            Partial to EEP and SE myself …

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          • drummerboy

            agq and exk to the rescue, oh,and bac puts lookin sweet this morn,maybe today bac becomes a 4 dollar stock.

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  20. Vegas Trader II

    Let’s get a show of hands on who thinks the S and P drops below 1200 tomorrow.

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  21. Jeff

    Is Merkel not the grandaughter of Hitler?

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  22. Frog Playing a Colorful Accordion
    Frog Playing a Colorful Accordion

    Our Congressional “super committee” has many very smart people in it. But it is true that they cannot operate a government. Unfortunately, we citizens do not act as if we expect them to. They ought to be called Fund Raisers, not Congress members.

    That’s quite a good idea there– operating a government competently. Right now the system is structured so that these people are rewarded only for fund raising. They get and keep their jobs and become most successful by their fund raising. We the People need to change the system so that Congress is rewarded for operating the government effectively.

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  23. Heaterman

    OK…..so it’s pretty much a given that at some point there will be a worldwide unwinding and everything will turn to shit..

    I am at a point where I’m thinking capital preservation only and screw any hope of growth. The probability of a Biblical proportioned financial meltdown is just to high.

    Assuming that something other than a totalitarian government emerges on the other side and we are still able to practice some form of capitalism and participate in the market; what opportunities would we be presented with for trading? Will there be money to be made in real estate? Or will equities over correct and bounce back quickly? Is there any particular segment of stocks that would do exceedingly well after such a tumult?

    Crystal ball time.

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  24. kedzilla

    Rick Ross eats turduckens not some rabble ass turkey

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  25. The Fly

    any bulls left?

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    • flyaway18

      I’ve been watching LULU and insiders have done nothing but sell the darn thing. This was supposed to be a quick trade for you. You know I remember a couple of years ago when you bought GMCR and rode that sucker down and then up, you were so sure about its upside going into earnings. Will you even hold LULU that long as it doesn’t report until 12-12.

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    • Bullish

      Nope, we are going straight to zero and Vegas Trader II’s TZA will be at least 1,000 per share by the end of the day.

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      • Vegas Trader II

        Fuck yeah!!!!!!

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      • fake amish

        vegas just needs a double to breakeven. its gonna happen for sure. everyone got the memo right? the world is ending. starting tomorrow. nothing to do but wait for it. sit back and read comic books while counting ones oblicatory stash of dry goods and iodine bottles. personally have the bomb shelter inspected daily while religiously reading the survival guide every five minutes. just to be sure one is ready for the end of the world which will happen any second now.

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    • Frog Playing a Colorful Accordion
      Frog Playing a Colorful Accordion

      Bulls– I do see on another board one person saying “Whenever this happens at night, the market always goes green within the first hour after it opens the next morning.”

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    • franky

      reading all this bearish shit just made me a committed bull. technicals could go either way – almost everything is just below the 200 ma. the clam(s) is playing the TA too. we’re gonna be flat to green EOD. and EOW. But they’ll run all of the buy/sell stops you have to keep the volume up. max pain people. good times!

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    • cheesetrader

      Yes – b/c everyone else is so negative

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  26. Speaker for Neutrinos
    Speaker for Neutrinos

    We are offended. We are forecasting high volitility but no real change in the range.

    Farewell, we are going to a more tolerant universe with better markets.

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  27. Jim H

    Any bulls left?…only the contrarian in me after reading these posts.

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  28. flyaway18

    Where’s Huggie? He nailed the rally and then disappeared.

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  29. kushzilla

    TO THE FLY: I think you perform an absolutely amazing service, to the 99% who are absolutely fucked in the head, with your financial market commentary. Thank you. In a way you express your thoughts so most don’t have to have their own thoughts. You give insight into the unfathomable. Most people really enjoy reading your opinions as do I, but I can’t help thinking what you could be accomplishing if you hadn’t dedicated(and don’t continue to dedicate) as much time as you do to financial markets. If you can become accomplished at trading stocks and bonds, what can’t you do? Maybe that’s why you chose this path: You enjoy the challenge.
    You ever consider playing poker professionally? Maybe start making music? Become a sick dancer? Ultimate fighter? Teacher(you already are for some)? Join the CIA? Run for president? Fighter jet pilot? Astronaut(unless you don’t have good eyesight)? Engineer? Not to late to explore your opportunities. Maybe they’ll form a religion based upon the teachings of “The Fly” in the next few hundred years(maybe Flyianity or Flyism or Flylam haha). Anywho, I’d love to see what you can accomplish in other aspects of life.

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  30. mhass33

    100% bears and we still go down in a panic

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  31. London

    I’m a bull. The US military, faced with spending only 39% of world total arms expenditures instead of the present 42% in 2013, will conclude that a military coup is the only option for saving Freedom, Capitalism, and the American Way. They will hire Italian technocrats to run the US government for the next 20 years until 7% annual inflation has solved the national debt. Well, that and the incredibly successful “Put the World Back to War” arms export jobs program.

    Stocks go through the roof.

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  32. Colonel von Ryan

    If you woke up tomorrow and it was 1978 what would you find?
    1. A President hell bent on socializing health care.
    2. A country viewed worldwide as weak, being held hostage by Iran.
    3. No growth for six years, in other words a market that did not go up or down.
    4. Stagnated wages, high under-employment.
    5. An out of control Fed with no clue as to how to handle the economy.
    6. A Democrat in charge.
    6. Arab-oil embargo causing gas prices to double.

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    • MacPatton

      Then came Reagan.

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    • dave

      How long has it been since the President who was attacked by a killer rabbit has been in charge? Both political parties suck ass.

      The populace does not want to accept the fact that the past 30 or 40 years has been a lie based on credit expansion. Debts must be paid whether by inflation or deflation. No one can escape.

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    • Lesley Wexler

      good one..thanks

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  33. jose mann

    bulls, bears, pigs – we are all fucked !!!

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  34. boomrblowup

    this whole bearshitting thread of understanding makes me sick. buy.

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  35. ?

    Dear Mr. Market,

    Please Panic.

    I have my wish list and dry powder.

    Respectfully yours,

    ?

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  36. chinese drink your milkshake
    chinese drink your milkshake

    china warns on global slump. go ahead puke it up.

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  37. Vegas Trader II

    Yet, many will buy!! Lol

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  38. chinese hate milkshakes
    chinese hate milkshakes

    they are buying the blood. what else to do with mother’s money.

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  39. ?

    A Strategy,

    Don’t leave home without it.

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  40. Vegas Trader II

    Their powers to manipulate are rapidly coming to an end, face it..

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  41. ottnott

    I can see a slide, but there will be intervention once again before everything goes over a cliff.

    Given the steps taken over the past few years to stand in the way of total collapse, I’m quite serious in saying that I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Fed create Euros if the ECB won’t. I know that such an act is impossible, but I expect that US banks will suddenly find themselves with large Euro reserves if that is the only action available to prevent global financial collapse.

    I am expecting the world to prove once again that it can be crazier than anything I can imagine.

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  42. Vegas Trader II

    Who was the syndicated speculator that Fly posted(video)here a couple weeks back? The one with back hair and a bald spot on top, with 20 cups of tea in him..

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  43. SUBCOMANDANTE CHINCHILLLLLA!!!
    SUBCOMANDANTE CHINCHILLLLLA!!!

    RELEASE THE DEVILDOG.

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  44. The OG

    Sounds like the sentiment from early October all over again…

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  45. Lesley Wexler

    you folks talk about the most useless shit.
    The market will eventually want to get back to making money on the longside instead of being held hostage by a bunch of cheese eating euro alsorans that look like they all need a bath and a bunch of asshole shorts that think they’re smarter than Fox.
    Hey, isn’t the PPT supposed to make the market idiot proof or at least Alfred E. Neumanesque?

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    • drummerboy

      the ppt just doesnt know when a super committee is ready to screw everyone,it just responds to who gets screwed,hence,”your” response is more important in banking coin.

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  46. Kunte Kinte

    stop betting on bailouts. S&P is going to 500 before any further monetary action.

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  47. WuzNotWoz

    Fly, the size of your estimated quarterly taxes is irrelevant. The fact that you’re pretty good at the economic equivalent of playing the ponies doesn’t mean you’re a productive member of society. You play the lottery everyday, you should play lottery-size taxes.

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  48. Elijah

    I literally learned about nearly all of this, but that being said, I still considered it had been beneficial. Very good post!

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