What else can be said? Two weeks ago the “no brainer” trade was to be short, indefinitely. Now the genius trade is to buy into a 13% 6 day run. This is an unbelievable short squeeze for the ages. The shorts have been entirely wiped out inside of 1 week. The amount of damage to the shorts is absolutely staggering. I am fortunate to have kept and added to longs during this run, instead of doing what my emotions dictated, which was to sell short.
Both VXX and TZA are down 17% since I bought them, stymying my current gains. Had I allocated the VXX money long, I would probably be up 25% for the year–unfuckingbelievable.
What will the market do next week? Will we continue this batman run and further eviscerate the bears? Or, will the bears strike back with their homo-catapults and bring about the end of the European fraud, by way of Italian 10 yr bonds?
All of these questions and more will be answered soon.
NOTE: “Fat Fuck” Rick Ross nearly died today. Apparently he had some sort of hamburger seizure today on an airplane, like due to all of that cocaine he snorts off his iPhone. He had to be revived and carted off to the animal hospital. Good news: he’s been released and is back to selling dope, most likely from the luxury of his brand new iPhone 4gs.
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I like two or three more up days….earnings are prob going to be strong these first couple of weeks. This has been an amazing turn around from the near total meltdown of, what was it, a week ago? Totally surreal, but very very nice.
Glad I didn’t have to pour my 40oz on the ground for Rick. I don’t think the markets could handle losing him, let alone what would happen to the exports of Colombia.
Keep kicking tail Fly. Have a good weekend all.
That’s why the market rallied into the bell, on the news that Rozay was okay.
They had to save him. There are no XXXL pineapple coffins.
Too big to fail.
Fly, what are your thoughts on the shitty volume during this rally? I know you get paid on price and all of that but cant see this thing having any real legs with such low volume.
SPY and QQQ both had below average volume today. Q’s volume was 65 million vs 88 million average. SPY volume was 203M vs 313M avg. Mos of the major ETF’s had volume fractions of their average.
I never put credence into broad market volume.
Market doesn’t go down until $AAPL earnings next week….at earliest.
Long live Ricky Rozay!! The fattest, baddest fucker alive today.
No doubt his new iPhone is being upgraded as we speak – plated with platinum and encrusted with diamonds and shit.
Neighbor Fly-Where are You? There is a group from Occupy Wall Street in front of your house and your neighbor Old Man DeLuca is leading them in chants: HEY HEY HO HO BOFUNGOOL FLY IS A CAPITALIST TOOL. I am trying to hold them off by throwing day old matzoh balls at them and your illegal gardeners are throwing chimichangas.
I spoke with one of them, Tito Marx, and he said Jamie Diamond sent them and said you made more money off Wall Street. Mrs. Steve is going to try a hose and soap to chase them away.
Gotat go now Neighbor. It’s getting rough. They are chanting: HEY HEY HO HO LET’S SEND STEVE BACK TO TEL AVIV.
LOL.
___
LOL! that is the funniest fucking post I’ve ever read…Steve makes this place!
Bofungool – I’m pissing in my pants on that one.
Bravo Steve!
the 3 bear mkt rallies of 08 crash lasted an avg. of 13 weeks. next week we enter week 11…
How can it be an 11 week rally when the S&P printed a new low 10 days ago? This rally will go longer than everyone thinks. Still to many doom and gloomers out there. Not enough people sucked back in.
im using aug. 5-8 as my starting point, puts us in 11th week next week, last weeks extreme liw of 1080ish is irrelevant in my analysis, im looking at broader trends
Your bias is showing. Cover that up now. There are ladies present.
lol
I am with The Fly, but deep down inside, I don’t trust this rally wholeheartedly.
Therefore, I have hedged accordingly.
I like FCX, which has been in a nice NYSE controlled trading range as of late.
That fat fuck has probably never sold a gram of dope in his life, he stole his name from the actual dealer Ricky Ross from LA. ‘Rick Ross’ probably grew up in some white suburban neighborhood and took singing lessons in High School.
On topic, some insane price action into the last 15-20 mins today. Guess we are growing to expect this sort of shit though.
Actually, he was an official CORRECTIONS OFFICER. LOL
Rick Ross used to beat criminals up with his night stick. Go youtube the cartoons that 50 cent made about Rick Ross. They are the funniest cartoons ever made. Someone do it and post. Thanks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tURTOBQbBIg
And for shits:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wR2F9Km5d0w
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JTbU4BTa8A&feature=related
From Wikipedia:
The release of his album, Teflon Don, was threatened to be blocked by Freeway Ricky Ross. A week after the filing of the lawsuit, Rick Ross responded to the charges: “It’s like owning a restaurant, you’re gonna have a few slip and falls. You get lawsuits, you deal with them, and get them out your way…sometimes you lose.”[30] He then denied rumours that he would change his name to “Ricky Rozay” as a consequence of the lawsuit. The lawsuit was thrown out of court on July 3, 2010[31] and his album, Teflon Don, was released on July 20 as scheduled.
Ricky Rozay is one slick dude.
Thank goodness the bear market is over. I feared I wouldn’t have time to accumulate enough MRE’s for the coming nuclear (no iran) winter. Berlusconi survived the no confidence vote like a true pimp! Bunga bunga parties live on! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3887t3M4llI
Wait till Sunday night.
IDK, I don’t think we’re where we want to be yet. I like to read Scott Bleier, Fly and WS Market Review. Eddie’s free blog today was about him feeling more optimistic about the market once the SP 500 gets above and holds the 200 day moving average and we’re not there yet.
Darn, my cursor jumps around and I didn’t catch it as I wrote. I was trying to write I ready Eddie Elfenbein of CWS Market Review and everything got jumbled.
“read” – not my day today on the keyboard.
I am getting very excited about this market, almost bordering on euphoric!! I can just smell all the fresh printed money that’s gonna be coming my way. Europe fixed-check, Wal Mart parking lot full again US economy
fixed-check. And most of all BEARS crushed!!! check check and triple check! I am buying CAT, Citi bank and Tiffany’s hand over fist! The Renaisssance has begun! THE CHARTS are with us!!! I can only say thru foam and lather…BUY BUY BUY! Just DO IT!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wIqVENjC8Q
http://chart.ly/8e7q3da
The Bulkowski W pattern actually played out perfectly in the SPY , so far. And yet, he failed to notice it in his own trading blog. Ironic, no?
That being said, its time for a short term QID swing here.
If you’re buying QQQ , the best you can hope for here is flat chop. Or a 3 to 4% dip, and THEN some flat chop. I can’t understand the risk/reward ratio on that trade.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkh6if8TL2U
I need what the wolf is smoking..
I am crushed by this rally, fucking wipe out all my shorts !!!
Relax Jose. I will chop my balls off & use them for craps if we continue to melt up next week.. NO fucking way..
get ready to be castrated. Citibank will beat and the market will open up 200.
Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) — Gold’s biggest slump in three years means traders and analysts are now the most bullish in three months, speculating that Europe’s debt crisis, slowing growth and a bear market in equities will drive demand for bullion.
Twenty-two of 25 people surveyed by Bloomberg expect the metal to rise next week, the highest proportion since mid-July. Prices rebounded 9.2 percent since reaching a two-month low at the end of September and investors are adding to their holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products for the first time in a month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Traders also expect gains in copper, sugar, corn and soybeans, surveys show.
Vegas:
That is why I like Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX)
How many videos have you watched in the last year or two, where a guy trying to steal copper gets fried?
Is that because everyone has a video camera in their phone (etc., etc.) or is it because more people are hard-up, and stealing precious metals?
I know, I know, gold is over-rated…..so if you don’t rate, then overcompensate!
CRYSTAL BALL ALERT:
E-Mini 1230 next week.
Mime says 1120..Today I even felt that all of my analysis was wrong. If that is NOT a top, I am not sure what is. But after the close, I smiled because G20 is doing what they do best, nothing http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/15/us-g-idUSTRE79C74G20111015?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews And, on pondering it..China Fucked with us on the Copper/Ore Import data this week. Reading back on China’s Statistics history, its not the main office, buts it the local data fed to them that is suspect. China Copper dealers knew that they were leading into golden week, plus they probably had the heads up that China Govt was going to post the story about how they had twice the amount in supply in 2010..so maybe a little double counting could be in order..which would make sense in price action and ship action for Sept. I have to remember, China Govt executes CEO’s, Govt Officials..many need Copper Prices supported. OK, I feel Better..see what this rally has done to me.
Well, if you’re wrong, I might consider you for a position as Ass. to my CIO. In this instance, you would be required to wear heals or pumps, at your discretion (around the pool or in the hall ways).
long drawn out wall of worry rally. gas price spike above $4 caused slowdown. fund managers will chase performance thru year end. Long MPET, SSO, AAPL, IEZ, LVS. Seasonally favorable time of year approaching.
This market is like is Viet Nam jungle stuff tho. stay alert, wide eyes and belly crawl in the rain and listen for twig snaps with no sleep and leeches in yr mouth. guaranteed land minds are out there somewhere. WNR great call. Missed it. feel asleep.
I raised a little cash today to take advantage of any dips that we might get next week. I am up 18% from the lows just 8 trading days ago. I still need another 14% from here to reach this year’s high. It doesn’t seem impossible!
No where near as good as The Fly.
I’m telling you guys this feels just like September 2010. The similarities are uncanny;
Back then the US was supposed to be tipping into recession just like now,
The market had made a lower price low but a higher low on the MACD which set up a positive momentum divergence just like now,
The market internals were very strong and confirming the price action with the ARMS index on the NYSE above 4 just like now,
The Ben Bernank had just announced a new Fed program just like now (QE2 then, Operation Twist now)
I’ve been eyeing an entry into a TZA call position given the overbought $RUT stochastics (both above 90) but $RUT MACD is still in the midst of a very strong move to the upside. Won’t dare put in an order for those TZA calls ’til the $RUT upside momentum starts to wane, whenever that will be.
stay away from TZA for another 9 months. This rally is just getting going. We could go up 100 DOW points daily for 6 months.
Could very well be. That period from September 2010 thru February 2011 when the market finally started a correction was like Chineez (sic) water torture for the shorts. Every day was up and the few, shallow pullbacks were measured in hours.
You people realize you are out of your fucking minds right? Go check comments from two weeks ago and see what you were saying then. Now we are going up 100, every day, for 6 months? LOL
That’s not how the market works, sorry.
when everyone begins waiting for the next dip so they can “get long”, thats when we really start to take off…i dont think were there yet.
There is still a lot of fear, which means there will be profit taking.
In sept 2010, everyone wanted in the market thanks to the bernanke put, and everyone was waiting to buy the next dip.
Look at the market from Sept 1, 2010 to Feb 1. The market went straight up. It will do the same thing this time.
Rick Ross had another seizure – on another plane…
http://www.tmz.com/2011/10/14/rick-ross-second-seizure/
yes, now i know where you were a week or 2 fly. I will accept your offer for help and join the PPT. For 1 month! then I will tell you what I think…
The way this market’s been swinging, a weekend is a long time to hold some positions. I went to 50% cash before the bell and I’ll get back in Monday morning once I see what’s up… or not.
1260 should be attainable. Then, when Europe fixes everything, who knows.
The problem is, you have all these ticking time bombs, Europe, China, social unrest growing. All the hippies are just a distraction as Simon loots the federal reserve. Welcome to the party, pal.
We probably build another fucking bubble and a year from now we are in the same position as we are today. There is no such thing as fair value, and if I have to read another retard talk about book value of a bank my head is going to explode. Yeah, BAC looks like the buy of the century, you dumbass.
Btw, your wnr call is $$$. I hate to say it, but I hopped on wnr, and it was good to me (no homo).
The next time someone mentions ripping out my spine Mortal Kombat style, they get hit upside the head with 9 inches of limp dick.
It was not the Clam, it was Merv King Clam in England with their QE2 and all the gossip about how the USA, China, etc will come to the aid of Europe Banks in a G20 sing along. This is a top just like Aug was..just a painful one on the spead of it. Pull up the Naz Daily chart multi Month, Head and Shoulders with a retest of the neckline in the start of Aug on that bear squeeze rally and this one that the Fly warned me about.
I will win. You will lose. All is right in the world.
The Spitz play Cha Cha Love to counteract the effect of Nine Piece eight balls.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-ipRN0e0vg&feature=related
Absolute prime/ripe for the picking here as market wipes stupid bears (who would actually hold thru 2 weeks staight up?)and complete moron bulls – thinking what?…this is a turn around?/
Currency all point to “short entry of a lifetime” as this massive bear market rally sets up for the biggest dump/leg down you’ll have seen in a long while.
Again….stumped at the underlying ‘bullishness”??? – are we traders here?…or does this community actually consider that “investing” still exists?
Prepare for liquidation.
People, people, people. Sometimes it’s not about you.
1. Put odds on Greece NOT defaulting.
2. Put odds on rating agencies agreeing that G20/IMF/ECB Greek haircut is NOT a default.
3. Put odds that Euro sovereigns DON’T get downgraded by rating agencies.
4. Put odds that Italy is NOT the next “target”.
5. Multiply those odds together.
That’s the chance that the market will continue higher before these issues are resolved.
OK…we have 10% for Greece, 100% but not a issue because only 10% chance of not a default, 10% for it..well its already starting..so it should be 0%, 50% (it could be Spain, coin toss)..ok I have .10 x 1 x .1 x .50 = .005, which is .5% or 99.5% it won’t go higher…lol, that was so cool to play with..give me another one.
btw I should proof read, for those that can’t “Nymph Speak”
1. For the answer to Question Number One there is only a 10% Chance that Greece won’t default..Merkel and Germany want a default and should get it.
2. For the Answer to the Second Question regarding the haircut downgrade, it is moot if Greece Defaults..but if France gets its way I give it a 10% chance,btw G20 can’t give haircuts..they just are telling Europe to get pretty by any means necessary.
3. See, that is why I get things wrong, I go too fast and skip over something..totally missed this question in the first answer..and it changes everything, answer is 0, they are already getting downgraded. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2048998/S-P-downgrades-Spains-credit-rating-second-time-week.html
4. 50/50 for Italy or Spain..
So now my answer is .1 x.1 x 0 x .5= 0
Well put Yogi.
all the cocaine he snorts from his iphone —
Ha! fucking funny ass shit Fly