Flirting with Disaster

All jokes aside, this market scares me. I have a lot to lose and for a moment, back in early August, I thought I lost control. I went from +16% to -8% in a few short weeks. I was on edge, even while in Turks and Caicos. Sleep was virtually impossible, since I needed to monitor Europe. When the shit is hitting the fan, I find it necessary to watch how all world markets trade to “get a feel.”

I can honestly say, while at the lows, I had a feeling that everything I had built over the years was in jeopardy. My saving grace was two fold: I didn’t have margin. Instead, I had about 30% net cash. And, I had confidence that I would be able to pick the right pivot points to make my money back, like I have done so many times in the past, from 1997 to date.

Believe me when I tell you, many of my peers are out of business. You might find it humorous to hear of hedge fund managers blowing up. But, in reality, the hedge fund manager will be fine. It’s his partners that get fucked. Regular millionaires with only one or two summers homes, wrecked to pieces by some dicksucker with a cocaine addiction. The shame.

This market is a destroyer. It is not something to get all jovial about, with your camel fucking humor. Don’t you see what is at stake here? From my vantage point, we are in the beginning stages of the grind to the bottom. It’s easy for some to take this lightly, trading at some bullshit Staples desk, whilst making bubbles in a retarded glass of chocolate milk. That’s because these people manage anywhere from $00.00 to $500,000. Look, if you’re not managing at least $10 million, you’re not managing real money. When you have $200 million to invest, understand the difficulty in getting in and out of stocks due to liquidity, then shut the fuck up.

I am real close to just shutting it down for awhile, due to my belief that we haven’t seen the worst of the crisis. Italian 10 yr bonds are closing in on 6%. I guaran-fucking-tee you this will be headline news inside of one week. The higher yields go, the further Italy goes into the abyss of no return. However, policy makers are constant interventionists, making playing the short side close to impossible. With year to date gains of about 15%, I’d be stupid to risk much here, in the face of all of this bullshit.

Off to drink a glass of chocolate milk from a “non-retarded” glass.

73 Responses to “Flirting with Disaster”

  1. Ever consider Vegas real estate Fly? I just scooped up a great house for $275k that was built for $562k in 2005. Bargains are plentiful.

    • only degenerates live in Vegas.

      • In 2013, I’m going to buy a house in Vegas for $150k that was bought for $275k in 2011 and built in 2005 for $562k.

        • ROFL

        • llolololo

        • In 2040 the government will hand me the keys to a house built in 2005 for over 500k, bought for 275k in 2011 and that some poor shmuck paid 150k in 2013 just before the previous debts were denominated in “ameros” as a gold standard caused massive deflation that no one can live with, much like Europe. With houses costing only 15k a few rich people scooped them all up in 2020, civil war broke out in 2025, killing 1/3rd of us and by 2030 the government declared Marxist ownership of all property providing it to the people for free. due to the huge housing surplus, you can basically sign up for any house you want and get 5 of them although taxes are steep and could go up and it still kind of sucks until the 2nd revolutionary war is won in 2040.

  2. Outofmiddleclass

    You are a genius …. in long rdmd and renn and open.. Just give me the signal to sell!!

  3. and your point is?

  4. Teahouseonthetracks, if you’re reading this I’m waiting for msrs. Fagen and Becker to take the stage in Vegas.

    • Saw the Royal Scam show at the Beacon a few weeks ago. They are still at the top of their game. I imagine the Palms crowd’s gonna be fewer hard core Dan fans and more rollers & vacationers.

  5. Good song man. Yup. Scary shit. Ducks will be picked off one by one – Italy, Port, Spain, Greece, blah blah. Liquidity dries up, financial shock sets in and insert bomb in ass to ignite.

  6. I beg to differ gracious fly. Plenty o degenerates in the city of lights but a nice slice of upper crust as well. You and mrs fly are welcome at the new casa anytime you visit. Bring steve the neighbor too. He’s a swell guy.

    • UPPER CRUST

      In re degenerates: I’ve survived two robbers/murderers(?) with knives.

      Don’t question my veracity.

      No. I won’t discuss details.

      Las Vegas is hit really hard by economy, but VALET PARKING is the ONLY route to go (UNLESS GOING BRA style), request armed guards to and fro (which any reputable Casino handles gratis).

      It’s an international city, closed off to “US degenerates.”

      No disrespect to Americans, but you know, the day to day slobs and loosers [sic].

      I get tons of practice in Italian, French, German, you name it, Thai and Nigerian last month… .

      It’s a single gentleman’s paradise: 1) Fiances, soon to be separated women. MILF’s. Bachelorette parties.

      All Hail the City of Light.

  7. Seems to me like the current rally has at least some legs still – dollar looks to be turning south again, bonds the same. Fly – do you think we are at the top or one more push?

  8. i think the cbs want the crisis so that we beg for unlimited intervention

  9. wait italians and the banks holding their debt are white people right? problem solved since the IMF only makes south american and asian countries default. we are fine.

  10. Fly,
    Your life is shit. Do you really do this for living and able to make 15% in your personal account so far this year. Give me a break. You are better off collecting shit from curbside in NYC. What a waste of precious life.

  11. So I guess this would be a a bad time to ask you to manage my 30K for me?

  12. I think 450 will mark bottom, how long to get there who knows

    smells like Japan saw toothed decline

  13. Fly,
    What a shame about Turks and Caicos, sorry to hear. Oh well, there’s always St. Lucia, St. John, Virgin Islands, Belize….
    Totally agree, why snatch victory from jaws of defeat only to get snatched. Remember when Alpha Dog went on his “walk-about”. Sometimes just what the doctor ordered. Why not do another science experiment and see how big you can grow a piker account, just for fun? That and the wife will keep you out of trouble. Thanks for the consistent honesty and generosity.

  14. the fly fucks god.

    epic post

  15. 1) bad news and market go higher
    2) asshole dip buyers are back
    3)insider buys and company buy backs (the Buffett put)
    4) JPM made money right? Google did pretty good too.

    That has to mean something.

    • Bullish,
      1) Pretty much got me on that one
      2) Yes, but they have a nasty habit of disappearing all at once, like a couple of weeks ago
      3) Notoriously poor ST signal, also Ol’ boy “Oracle” may be off his game. He just about top ticked BAC in the short term
      4) Wrong. Zero has a great explanation of the accounting trick used. Google did do well. I remember a piece tho, that said advert. goes up when the dogs sniff weakness
      “that has to mean something”
      I think it means you swing bullish and I probably am swinging a little bearish right now. Outside of GOOG, earnings (think semi’s) are kinda suckin’ ass

    • I am still net long Bullish. But this is the last leg.

    • GOOG good Number of paid clicks increased but rate per click decreasing. Pricing power (on that end at least) coming down

      JPM ha They still did to some extent adding reserves to balance sheet. But actually hedged their own rising CDS’s

  16. This post reminds me of some of your late 2007 missives, Fly. Gives me a chill.

    • Moober, I was reading headlines from mid to late 2007, today. The freight shipments were declining like now. I remember, a friend at a Board meeting in Decemeber 2007 saying he got a recession warning from his broker that day.

  17. Fly

    Couldn’t agree more.

    Playing the short side this summer was easy as stocks were way overbought.

    Been a rough ride since but I am playing small and very hedged. My gut tells me I should be balls to the wall short but the fucking bailout talk seems to never end.

    I think Merkel and Sarkozy’s supposed plan to be launched in early Novemeber is a bunch of shit. I don’t think they have one.

    If they did have one then why not just throw it out to the markets now? MAkes no sense

    I bought a few more PUTS today but not comfortable with them. I’ll most likely continue to scale in here in order to avoid getting my cock chopped off.

    A year from now I think we’ll be a lot lower than here.

  18. Back in 2008 I managed to get most of my money out of stocks just before the huge plunge. I looked like a fucking hero. I told all my friends to get the fuck out and stay the fuck out! I dabbled a little as the market made a huge recovery but I never really participated in the rally. I could have made ba shitload if I had only reinvested near the lows and hung on. I tried shorting the market all the way up and I just lost money. Now I find it impossible to short anymore!
    Yeah the world has a shitload of problems and we may indeed go down from here eventually but I don’t believe it will be today. Earnings are expected to be better than analyst’s estimates and Europe will eventually come to some sort of short term solution. So for now I am buying dips and selling into strength for as long as I can.

  19. Everything you spoke of is 99.9% related to the strip ANT. Locals, like myself, who live in VEGAS, 20-25 mins from the strip, don’t have to be subject to your & many others pre-conceived notions..we’ve got 2.7 million people and the strip is a DROP in the bucket. North West Vegas(Summerlin) is a fucking paradise.. 88 degrees today 0 humidity.. A fucking dream..

  20. Great post, Fly. I don’t know how you deal with the stress. Managing my own pissant account is stressful enough. I wouldn’t want the burden of other people’s money on top of that.

  21. 6% is the magic number

    Not sure why but that seems to be the ****POINT OF NO RETURN***** that I hear

    Italy creeping up to 6 is **big time**

    You can ban me for excessive use of asterisks

  22. When you corn-dog fuckers look down into the abyss, it will be me at the bottom, waiting to collect your corpse and stuff it into a casket engraved with the letters T.L.T.

  23. Exactly. Nothing has changed – PIIGS still facing bancrupcy here, banks facing losses, maybe some bancrupcies and even bank runs. Yields are still there, as you say it. And this has a distinctive feel of a bear market rally, as you say it – going into space, steeply and abruptly. 90 NDX points in 1 hour in a regular bull market? 15% in 6 – 7 days? Nasdaq up 1.5% on a day when major banks are all tanking for 4 – 5%?

    Give me a break, we know what a healthy bull run is and what a bear market rally looks like. And, we also know how bear market rallies end.

    GOOG only added some fuel yesterday to the fire of insanity and postponed reality setting in for a day or so.

  24. shutting it down… if only I could.. I am a trader and shutting it down means I may be missing something.. we crave action that why we are in this “game”

    • If everyone traded all the time with no edge you would just pass money back and forth until the brokers have it all. At least inflation keeps the degenerates in the game.

  25. I am sure you read this Mr. Fly but in case you did not
    http://pragcap.com/italian-bond-yields-this-crisis-isnt-over

  26. Vegas Trader II

    North West near red rock. You fucking mo mo..

  27. Doesn’t everyone watch the europe and Asian Sessions? Italy is having their 51st Vote of non confidence tonight…Yes, this is going to totally collapse, all Bubbles do in time. This last rally we have been having is just pissing me off, Merv King and his Gay QE2, screw you, lol. What can I do, but just wait because this is not Clam QE at all. Anyway, we are close to having it all fall apart,soon, I can get back to riding the bubble down. What amuses me tonight, China CPI came inline with estimates, Shanghai is weaker over future tightning fears while Risk on currencies are up a small bit over a decrease of .1% and hopes for tightning to stop…I wonder if anyone else is amused by this, ahh probably not, just me?

  28. There probably will be SOME buyer/country/china of copper at 3. But ultimately that would only add to inventory. Not demand. I believe…

    3 Things Every Trader Must Know about Copper
    With copper down sharply over the past month or so, should you play it for a bounce?
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/44896071

  29. All this recession talk – anyone else notice that the ECRI thinks we’ve just entered one? And they’re about the only forecasters with a record worth talking about

  30. The Fly is going Marc Faber on us … oh the horror

  31. xxxHuggieBearxxx

    This place has gone totally ZeroHedge.

    Oh, and by the way, We Go Higher.

  32. The Plumbers Crack

    Call if you have any problems with the shitter.

  33. Mad Willie Thompson

    @bubbles in chocolate milk….ROFL!! Endlessly creative wordsmithing, Fly.

  34. I just spent a month on the ocean in southern Spain. I talked with a lot of the locals. Basically, they have no clue as to what is happening, they just know it isn’t good. Real estate prices still haven’t come down enough. They need to fall another 30 to 40%. If you look hard you can find a great deal. And yes, I did.

  35. S&P may break through resistance today!

  36. Chopping block get a little too close to your carrot?

  37. Ihopenot, I’ve heard of cautionary advice before but man….I was in a good mood this morning…

  38. Steely dan show at the Palms was top notch…as expected.

Comments are closed.
Previous Posts by The Fly
Tired Bull
54 comments

Flirting with Disaster

All jokes aside, this market scares me. I have a lot to lose and for a moment, back in early August, I thought I lost control. I went from +16% to -8% in a few short weeks. I was on edge, even while in Turks and Caicos. Sleep was virtually impossible, since I needed to monitor Europe. When the shit is hitting the fan, I find it necessary to watch how all world markets trade to “get a feel.”

I can honestly say, while at the lows, I had a feeling that everything I had built over the years was in jeopardy. My saving grace was two fold: I didn’t have margin. Instead, I had about 30% net cash. And, I had confidence that I would be able to pick the right pivot points to make my money back, like I have done so many times in the past, from 1997 to date.

Believe me when I tell you, many of my peers are out of business. You might find it humorous to hear of hedge fund managers blowing up. But, in reality, the hedge fund manager will be fine. It’s his partners that get fucked. Regular millionaires with only one or two summers homes, wrecked to pieces by some dicksucker with a cocaine addiction. The shame.

This market is a destroyer. It is not something to get all jovial about, with your camel fucking humor. Don’t you see what is at stake here? From my vantage point, we are in the beginning stages of the grind to the bottom. It’s easy for some to take this lightly, trading at some bullshit Staples desk, whilst making bubbles in a retarded glass of chocolate milk. That’s because these people manage anywhere from $00.00 to $500,000. Look, if you’re not managing at least $10 million, you’re not managing real money. When you have $200 million to invest, understand the difficulty in getting in and out of stocks due to liquidity, then shut the fuck up.

I am real close to just shutting it down for awhile, due to my belief that we haven’t seen the worst of the crisis. Italian 10 yr bonds are closing in on 6%. I guaran-fucking-tee you this will be headline news inside of one week. The higher yields go, the further Italy goes into the abyss of no return. However, policy makers are constant interventionists, making playing the short side close to impossible. With year to date gains of about 15%, I’d be stupid to risk much here, in the face of all of this bullshit.

Off to drink a glass of chocolate milk from a “non-retarded” glass.

73 Responses to “Flirting with Disaster”

  1. Ever consider Vegas real estate Fly? I just scooped up a great house for $275k that was built for $562k in 2005. Bargains are plentiful.

    • only degenerates live in Vegas.

      • In 2013, I’m going to buy a house in Vegas for $150k that was bought for $275k in 2011 and built in 2005 for $562k.

        • ROFL

        • llolololo

        • In 2040 the government will hand me the keys to a house built in 2005 for over 500k, bought for 275k in 2011 and that some poor shmuck paid 150k in 2013 just before the previous debts were denominated in “ameros” as a gold standard caused massive deflation that no one can live with, much like Europe. With houses costing only 15k a few rich people scooped them all up in 2020, civil war broke out in 2025, killing 1/3rd of us and by 2030 the government declared Marxist ownership of all property providing it to the people for free. due to the huge housing surplus, you can basically sign up for any house you want and get 5 of them although taxes are steep and could go up and it still kind of sucks until the 2nd revolutionary war is won in 2040.

  2. Outofmiddleclass

    You are a genius …. in long rdmd and renn and open.. Just give me the signal to sell!!

  3. and your point is?

  4. Teahouseonthetracks, if you’re reading this I’m waiting for msrs. Fagen and Becker to take the stage in Vegas.

    • Saw the Royal Scam show at the Beacon a few weeks ago. They are still at the top of their game. I imagine the Palms crowd’s gonna be fewer hard core Dan fans and more rollers & vacationers.

  5. Good song man. Yup. Scary shit. Ducks will be picked off one by one – Italy, Port, Spain, Greece, blah blah. Liquidity dries up, financial shock sets in and insert bomb in ass to ignite.

  6. I beg to differ gracious fly. Plenty o degenerates in the city of lights but a nice slice of upper crust as well. You and mrs fly are welcome at the new casa anytime you visit. Bring steve the neighbor too. He’s a swell guy.

    • UPPER CRUST

      In re degenerates: I’ve survived two robbers/murderers(?) with knives.

      Don’t question my veracity.

      No. I won’t discuss details.

      Las Vegas is hit really hard by economy, but VALET PARKING is the ONLY route to go (UNLESS GOING BRA style), request armed guards to and fro (which any reputable Casino handles gratis).

      It’s an international city, closed off to “US degenerates.”

      No disrespect to Americans, but you know, the day to day slobs and loosers [sic].

      I get tons of practice in Italian, French, German, you name it, Thai and Nigerian last month… .

      It’s a single gentleman’s paradise: 1) Fiances, soon to be separated women. MILF’s. Bachelorette parties.

      All Hail the City of Light.

  7. Seems to me like the current rally has at least some legs still – dollar looks to be turning south again, bonds the same. Fly – do you think we are at the top or one more push?

  8. i think the cbs want the crisis so that we beg for unlimited intervention

  9. wait italians and the banks holding their debt are white people right? problem solved since the IMF only makes south american and asian countries default. we are fine.

  10. Fly,
    Your life is shit. Do you really do this for living and able to make 15% in your personal account so far this year. Give me a break. You are better off collecting shit from curbside in NYC. What a waste of precious life.

  11. So I guess this would be a a bad time to ask you to manage my 30K for me?

  12. I think 450 will mark bottom, how long to get there who knows

    smells like Japan saw toothed decline

  13. Fly,
    What a shame about Turks and Caicos, sorry to hear. Oh well, there’s always St. Lucia, St. John, Virgin Islands, Belize….
    Totally agree, why snatch victory from jaws of defeat only to get snatched. Remember when Alpha Dog went on his “walk-about”. Sometimes just what the doctor ordered. Why not do another science experiment and see how big you can grow a piker account, just for fun? That and the wife will keep you out of trouble. Thanks for the consistent honesty and generosity.

  14. the fly fucks god.

    epic post

  15. 1) bad news and market go higher
    2) asshole dip buyers are back
    3)insider buys and company buy backs (the Buffett put)
    4) JPM made money right? Google did pretty good too.

    That has to mean something.

    • Bullish,
      1) Pretty much got me on that one
      2) Yes, but they have a nasty habit of disappearing all at once, like a couple of weeks ago
      3) Notoriously poor ST signal, also Ol’ boy “Oracle” may be off his game. He just about top ticked BAC in the short term
      4) Wrong. Zero has a great explanation of the accounting trick used. Google did do well. I remember a piece tho, that said advert. goes up when the dogs sniff weakness
      “that has to mean something”
      I think it means you swing bullish and I probably am swinging a little bearish right now. Outside of GOOG, earnings (think semi’s) are kinda suckin’ ass

    • I am still net long Bullish. But this is the last leg.

    • GOOG good Number of paid clicks increased but rate per click decreasing. Pricing power (on that end at least) coming down

      JPM ha They still did to some extent adding reserves to balance sheet. But actually hedged their own rising CDS’s

  16. This post reminds me of some of your late 2007 missives, Fly. Gives me a chill.

    • Moober, I was reading headlines from mid to late 2007, today. The freight shipments were declining like now. I remember, a friend at a Board meeting in Decemeber 2007 saying he got a recession warning from his broker that day.

  17. Fly

    Couldn’t agree more.

    Playing the short side this summer was easy as stocks were way overbought.

    Been a rough ride since but I am playing small and very hedged. My gut tells me I should be balls to the wall short but the fucking bailout talk seems to never end.

    I think Merkel and Sarkozy’s supposed plan to be launched in early Novemeber is a bunch of shit. I don’t think they have one.

    If they did have one then why not just throw it out to the markets now? MAkes no sense

    I bought a few more PUTS today but not comfortable with them. I’ll most likely continue to scale in here in order to avoid getting my cock chopped off.

    A year from now I think we’ll be a lot lower than here.

  18. Back in 2008 I managed to get most of my money out of stocks just before the huge plunge. I looked like a fucking hero. I told all my friends to get the fuck out and stay the fuck out! I dabbled a little as the market made a huge recovery but I never really participated in the rally. I could have made ba shitload if I had only reinvested near the lows and hung on. I tried shorting the market all the way up and I just lost money. Now I find it impossible to short anymore!
    Yeah the world has a shitload of problems and we may indeed go down from here eventually but I don’t believe it will be today. Earnings are expected to be better than analyst’s estimates and Europe will eventually come to some sort of short term solution. So for now I am buying dips and selling into strength for as long as I can.

  19. Everything you spoke of is 99.9% related to the strip ANT. Locals, like myself, who live in VEGAS, 20-25 mins from the strip, don’t have to be subject to your & many others pre-conceived notions..we’ve got 2.7 million people and the strip is a DROP in the bucket. North West Vegas(Summerlin) is a fucking paradise.. 88 degrees today 0 humidity.. A fucking dream..

  20. Great post, Fly. I don’t know how you deal with the stress. Managing my own pissant account is stressful enough. I wouldn’t want the burden of other people’s money on top of that.

  21. 6% is the magic number

    Not sure why but that seems to be the ****POINT OF NO RETURN***** that I hear

    Italy creeping up to 6 is **big time**

    You can ban me for excessive use of asterisks

  22. When you corn-dog fuckers look down into the abyss, it will be me at the bottom, waiting to collect your corpse and stuff it into a casket engraved with the letters T.L.T.

  23. Exactly. Nothing has changed – PIIGS still facing bancrupcy here, banks facing losses, maybe some bancrupcies and even bank runs. Yields are still there, as you say it. And this has a distinctive feel of a bear market rally, as you say it – going into space, steeply and abruptly. 90 NDX points in 1 hour in a regular bull market? 15% in 6 – 7 days? Nasdaq up 1.5% on a day when major banks are all tanking for 4 – 5%?

    Give me a break, we know what a healthy bull run is and what a bear market rally looks like. And, we also know how bear market rallies end.

    GOOG only added some fuel yesterday to the fire of insanity and postponed reality setting in for a day or so.

  24. shutting it down… if only I could.. I am a trader and shutting it down means I may be missing something.. we crave action that why we are in this “game”

    • If everyone traded all the time with no edge you would just pass money back and forth until the brokers have it all. At least inflation keeps the degenerates in the game.

  25. I am sure you read this Mr. Fly but in case you did not
    http://pragcap.com/italian-bond-yields-this-crisis-isnt-over

  26. Vegas Trader II

    North West near red rock. You fucking mo mo..

  27. Doesn’t everyone watch the europe and Asian Sessions? Italy is having their 51st Vote of non confidence tonight…Yes, this is going to totally collapse, all Bubbles do in time. This last rally we have been having is just pissing me off, Merv King and his Gay QE2, screw you, lol. What can I do, but just wait because this is not Clam QE at all. Anyway, we are close to having it all fall apart,soon, I can get back to riding the bubble down. What amuses me tonight, China CPI came inline with estimates, Shanghai is weaker over future tightning fears while Risk on currencies are up a small bit over a decrease of .1% and hopes for tightning to stop…I wonder if anyone else is amused by this, ahh probably not, just me?

  28. There probably will be SOME buyer/country/china of copper at 3. But ultimately that would only add to inventory. Not demand. I believe…

    3 Things Every Trader Must Know about Copper
    With copper down sharply over the past month or so, should you play it for a bounce?
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/44896071

  29. All this recession talk – anyone else notice that the ECRI thinks we’ve just entered one? And they’re about the only forecasters with a record worth talking about

  30. The Fly is going Marc Faber on us … oh the horror

  31. xxxHuggieBearxxx

    This place has gone totally ZeroHedge.

    Oh, and by the way, We Go Higher.

  32. The Plumbers Crack

    Call if you have any problems with the shitter.

  33. Mad Willie Thompson

    @bubbles in chocolate milk….ROFL!! Endlessly creative wordsmithing, Fly.

  34. I just spent a month on the ocean in southern Spain. I talked with a lot of the locals. Basically, they have no clue as to what is happening, they just know it isn’t good. Real estate prices still haven’t come down enough. They need to fall another 30 to 40%. If you look hard you can find a great deal. And yes, I did.

  35. S&P may break through resistance today!

  36. Chopping block get a little too close to your carrot?

  37. Ihopenot, I’ve heard of cautionary advice before but man….I was in a good mood this morning…

  38. Steely dan show at the Palms was top notch…as expected.

Comments are closed.