Sometimes it’s easy to get caught up in the emotion. Geez, if you were to just spend a day on Twitter, viewing the outright panic mongering by would be gurus, you’d never buy a stock again. What we are seeing here has happened before. You just don’t remember it too well, due to all of the marijuana intake.
At the moment, the S&P is down about 12%, month to date. The last time the market melted down in August was back in 1998 when those commy pricks (Russians) had an economic collapse. As a matter of fact, it started on 8/17/98 and it spread throughout Asia. Hence the phrase was born, “The Asian Contagion.” Due to Russia’s overwhelming debt, they decided to devalue the Ruble and fuck creditors. The immediate result was a market in crisis. Commodity prices plunged and equities crashed. I remember the exact moment because I was so dead in the water, I was out interviewing for low end discount house gigs. As I was on one of these hideous interviews, the “boss” brought in his “top producer”, who boasted an annual income of 98k. Just one year prior, I made about 80k, my first year in the business. It was at the very moment, seeing these fucking pikers in front of me that I knew it was my duty to make it in the business.
I borrowed money from credit cards, skipped lunch 3 out of 5 days, worked Saturdays, and got lucky.
I put all of my money under management, and all new money, in one stock, BYND, and scored big. The market meltdown, the end of the world as we knew it, back in August of 1998, never materialized. Following a 14% drubbing, the S&P rebounded in September by 6.3% and some more in October by 8.1% and never looked back.
Aside from 1998, we dove lower in February of 2009 by 10.75%, only to rebound by 8.3% in March. In October of 2008, the market crashed by 16.5% and dipped some more by 6.9% in November. The only other occurrence of a double digit decline in a single month was September of 2002, when the S&P dropped by 10.4%. Shortly after, the market roared back in October by 8.2%.
The trillion dollar question: is this time different? Is this “the end”?
The world has been ending for as long as I can remember. However, somehow, someway, this bitch of a market always seems to come ripping back.
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A little more down side to get QE3 justified then you’ll get your damn rally!
we’ll rally…as a wise old homo once said “we’re still the best horse in the glue factory.”
I am going all in on Le Fly’s weiner WNR !!!
no homo, I hope.
What happend to BYND? The only thing that comes up is some old messages from 1999 on the Yahoo chat board for Digital River.
It eventually when out of biz. But I caught a 8-30 run.
Yeah. What Russia did we’ll eventually do. But not yet…Perhaps in Obama’s second term…
Did? We’re doing it right now.
_______
skippin lunch 3 outta 5 cuz of all the yayo!!
Great post Fly. It’s perspective like this that keeps me coming back here daily.
Certainly the world is not going to end just because the markets are tanking. But this blog is not an objective look at price action. Going long as the market closes at the low of the week is catching a falling knife. When SPX 1100 bites dust look for objective support at 1020. Going only when SPX closes over 1160.
Who went long at the lows?
I am 50% cash since earlier this week. I didn’t get caught offguard.
Read what I am saying,not what you want to see.
… uhhh … actually I added to my LONG position @ the Close !
I’m “HEDGED” … for whatever the weekend might have in store !
I still have some CASH … should I need / want to deploy it !
I will sleep like a baby this weekend … content in the knowledge … I’M GOLDEN !!!
YAWN !!!
.
“hEDGED” doesn’t work because they will take both your stops on both sides. Whipping is what it is called. Stay in cash, if you are afraid.
STOPS ???
—
What are you … HIGH ???
PAH-LEEZE !!!
That’s just “wheels off” fricken hilarious !!!
.
In The Land Of The Blind The One Eyed Man Is King !!!
.
Not at night.
… did I mention that I’m … HEDGED ???
Just sayin’
.
LOL !!!
.
Too funny !
.
For some reason, I cam giving you rope to hang yourself. One more antagonistic comment and you’re fucking out.
IT ADDS NO FUCKING VALUE. When in my house, respect the host or you will be escorted out by my pack of hungry stray dogs.
Fly !!!
I have NEVER been disrespectful of you … EVER !!!
You cannot say the same … in your posts directed at me !!!
—
I love ya MAN !!!
I have said it countless times in my history here !!!
I see inflammatory posts here EVERY FUCKIN’ DAY … way beyond ANYTHING I have ever posted ! fwiw
—
We have different perspectives here !!!
That does NOT make me THE ENEMY !!!
JEEEZ !!!
—
Whatever !!!
You’re tha boss !!!
Do what ya gotta do !!!
.
I been doin’ this shit … prolly longer than most of the idiots that post on this site stopped
wettin’ the bed !!!
Show some respect !!!
.
.
… and … BTW … IT ABSOLUTELY DOES … add value !!! IMO
.
BRING THE CONFETTI!!!!
old man sit down. You make fucktard posts, which means you’re big time down on this year, & life time pnl? why u working so long?. show sum respect to the younger gen that will be paying ur social security, which I am sure you will rely on, ok ok I am sorry, I will show respect after I feel you deserve it. going to bed. it is 3am. “GET MONEY I’M A MONEY BURNIN MOTHE3R FUCKER”
If you don’t have any conviction just go cash until u get a clear(er) picture. I am 42% cash with put protection and “made/ make good/great” day trades 80% of the time.
I will brag right now on my super trading lucky skills today.sold half my WNR at $16.23 and rolled into TZA $52..+ and sold at $58.05 before close, which mitigated my risk, made me postive on day and cut me down to 42%cash in this acct going into weekend,while stil holding my long positions. almost doubled down on 1 that got crushed but choose to keep it at a jog not a sprint. Be patient, good feeling on Monday rally.
I think we rally Monday. cheers, wait I don’t need anymore its 3am ct….
Personally, I have seen it all before but don’t remember it because of all the vodka, columbian marching powder and mescaline. Marijuana is for pussies.
I am definitely in panic mode today. I do n’t understand why people are still saying no panic yet. I look everywhere for comfort. Shit!
Le Fly is correct.. as in his earlier post… to count on everlasting decline is to bet against humanity. The misanthrope in me tells me that humanity is one fucktarded mass of blithering idiocy… but there are enough of our ilk… those with ingenuity, foresight, determination and cajones to prevent the rest of the simians from fucking this grand coke party up to all hell.
I think Fly’s earlier post was saying look at what’s in front of you and be a bull or bear accordingly, not one-sighted.
If the world was full of perfect fuckers, we would be closer to the bottom of the humanity curve. Thank God for fucktards.
FREEDOM is a prerogative of all living things, man being no exception. Humanity should not be strewn with society. History of progressive growth of traditions, customs and legislation is sufficient to prove this assertion. The evolution of the state when viewed from an unbiased, detached angle of perception will appear no more than an institutionalized journey of man towards progressive self-imposed slavery. To resolve this dilemma requires a deeper understanding of the factors which are responsible for this step by step transition from freedom to bondage. It is a very simple concept.
One that takes tons of crack and Colt 45. Lmfao………… JK
I knew you didn’t write the above yourself. I googled it and found that it was written in some Muslim book. Interesting. That is the last place I would have expected that quote to be from.
Moammar goes down in a hail of gun fire and Tomahawk missiles,
The Euro peons get their act together with some kind of bond buying bullshit
and the Bernanke comes up with some new way of printing money,
And we then we RALLY.
Life is good.
yes, maybe, printing money isn’t a sustainable way to grow an economy, no.
Could WNR be the next BYND?
could Patrick be the next Liberace?
thats funny ,i dont care who u r, thats funny
could be in the future… but in the present environment, not even fucking close.
The only ending is here in the US is a Russia part deux with a devaluation of the dollar.
There is no way to refinance the disaster that Europe and the US have put themselves in. We have two choices:
1) Massive debt restructuring and debt destruction(like that’s gonna happen given our broken political system).
Or
2) 30-50% devaluation of the US Dollar.
Anyone who tells you we can grow out of this is a fool and should be Gagged, hog tied, and muzzled for a decade as this plays out.
As Le Fly says we will rally. Nothing heads straight down. However, this is a fucking nightmare that ends in a collapse.
The debts are too overwhelming to grow out of. The best case scenario is a 20 year Japanese deflation where our standard drastically drops.
The Fed simply won’t let that happen so be prepared for massive inflation. The playbook is the same when you look back in history at everytime this has happened(and it’s happoened a lot).
agreed you cant continually bet against existence, but I have yet to smell any capitulation.
from what i have seen in the past there has to be the max pain applied, and so far people are just holding on waiting for the Bernanke Put.
it will come, i just think everyone is waiting on J-hole and then it will be alright. Not sure depends on the amount of pain applied next week.
Bernanke wants the doubters to plead with him to make it right, and it may take a few more hits to make it happen.
The “bullish wild card” is that stocks are priced NOMINALLY. So at what point does the market start discounting the future velocity of all the money that’s been printed but currently is still just “sitting there,” and thus begin pricing stocks at nominally inflated prices? I mean, it seems as it gold is doing that to the nth degree, so either stocks need to follow or gold needs to crash.
either stocks need to follow or gold needs to crash
or
stocks could run, but gold run faster
God damn house was awsome. 289 asking and we threw out 285 and got denied in this fucking house market. Oh well.. Will just have to set fire to house and their real estate woman’s car.
Bluff ?
They just said our offer was rejected with no rebuttal from us allowed. I personally thing this whole real estate thing is crooked. Why would they not let us try and go higher and start a bidding war. Un-fucking believable…
Just build a new one.
Think of all the trades people you can provide work for. Plus, you won’t be using someone else’s used toilet.
To build new in the area near her parents it would run around 335 for my base necessities (2 car garage, fireplace, and built in book shelves. The longer this search lingers on the more attractive that option looks. I was anticipating this trading career of mine would result in at least an engagement ring and maybe some coin for a home. Oh well…But I agree with you bullish. I am a bit of a germaphobe and believe carpets are the dirtiest things man has ever invented.
Don’t build it. You can buy top quality far below the cost to build.
Educate yourself.
Disclosure I do not benefit in any way from this:
http://www.cashflowdepot.com/
Fogetabouit, That’s just one unrealistic seller OR something else. You have no info.
Don’t use a realtor. Most are clueless and couldn’t get a deal done in this market if their lives depended on it. Make a deal directly with the owner. It’s legal. They just need to pay the commission. That’s all.
Better yet, walk. They are plenty of bargains out there.
A friend of mine used to have a poster on an executioner on the back of his office door. The only thing it said was, “Next”
next,i agree.i’ve ran the gauntlet in seeing that,people price emotion into the house price, thats “always” unrealistic. with 289 i can grab two of those in the midwest,and in brick,or run up to the wisconsin border and grab a kick ass farm and still be a stones throw from any major metro area be it north or south from there.and @ half blood,it sounds like your girl just wants to be close to “her” side of family,and making a purchase in an area of homes that went up when that thing sold for 600k,we have a lot of those around here,beautiful,but the for sale signs have been up for 3 years.i know the east coast can be expensive. taxes?
5 k on used house 10k on new build. Ball park.
Don’t buy anything now.
Rent. You would be absolutely nuts to pay that much in upstate NY right now.
NY has only seen the slightest blood thus far.
It’s coming.
That’s hard to believe…if that’s true there’s something backwards going on, no one’s THAT stupid.
Logical
“It’s sitting there” because all of the money is on the bankers balance sheet versus the consumer’s. As a result, the money isn’t really in the economy because the banks won’t lend it out.
AS a result it ends up parked in things like treasuries and gold which is why u see both doing so well.
The money will never end up trickling into corprtations because the money doesn’t really exist. It’s being used by the bankers to prop up their insolvent balance sheets.
Don’t expect this to change anytime soon.
theedge111,
I do agree with most of that. However, at some point either gold has to crash (because we’ll have deflation and not inflation) or enough additional money will be printed whereby the banks are (nominally) flush again and we get some heavy duty inflation, thereby driving up (nominal) stock prices. It just seems completely illogical to me to have soaring gold and crashing stocks unless the gold is soaring in anticipation of more waves of money-printing, in which case the stocks shouldn’t be crashing. Or, to put it another way, why is gold forecasting a high rate of inflation but stocks aren’t? Again, something’s gotta give.
ok u r right, but what is worth what? i see 10 yr gold run, not stright up but up. look at oil/ gold, thers alot to see (last 10yrs) if u look at gold and the dollar…yikes, we cant print gold.
Logical
Gold is soaring because it’s being bought by worthless currencies that are backed by nothing but trillions in debt.
Inflation is coming but gold is not signaling that right now. It’s telling you that without reform and debt restructuring the currencies that are being used to buy it are rapidly losing value or are worthless. Gold might pullback but longer term it will rise because it’s the only currency that’s not backed by debt.
If the currencies were “worthless” (or soon to be worthless) then stock prices should be soaring, because a share of stock represents a piece of a real asset.
If u buy stocks then what are they backed by? USD. Tough market and I have bOught some hi divi stocks.
Nonetheless, there is no answer to what ails us. Diversification is a must and that includes hard assets and food sources as crazy as that sounds.
theedge:
Look at history. During the Weimar, Argentinean and Israeli hyperinflations, stock prices absolutely SOARED in nominal terms. That’s because stocks aren’t “backed by U.S. dollars” (or marks or pesos) but, rather, by the goods and services the companies they represent can provide as well as the assets (both hard and soft) that those companies own, and those goods, services and assets will simply be continually repriced in the newly hyperinflated currency. Clearly, stocks probably won’t be able to keep pace with hyperinflation in REAL terms, but nevertheless, when one shorts (or buys) a stock one is shorting (or buying) a NOMINAL price, and that’s why either gold or stock prices will prove to be very wrong here.
We are all set for a Rip The Face Off The Bear rally on Monday. Futures will be up minimum 200 overnight then rally another 200 points.
basis?
It’s not the end, but no reason to fight the tape either.
Very true. I remember Analyst Bomber had some very good advice along the lines of “Wait until the markets don’t shit themselves on bad news.” In late June there was a perfect example of this. One day I opened my browser and the main headlines were about riots in Greece. I think this was the day the dumbass CNBC anchors were in Athens donned in full gas masks. I expected the market to be down at least 40 S&P points. Instead they were green. That was the start of the July upward move.
Couple of weeks ago I attempted some knife catching with terrible results. Now, I’m not buying shit until we get that elusive “market doesn’t sell off on bad news” indicator.
mostly the problem is weve been givin out fish, instead of fishin poles. takers who give nothing back, fuck the mule , load the cart. well the mule is over loaded.how many thumbs down can i get for this.
Twitter is worse on your brain than the marijuana.
wrong week to quit sniffin glue!
lol bullish say uncle.
hey i wish it was all clear, in 2006 u could throw a dart and make money, it just not that way now. deep down i wish u were right, look at my trades, i was rootin for the best
So Fly, what was that the other time when you almost went bankrupt? Was it around 2000?
so is this helpful? just askin.
You’re annoying.
thanks,
Don’t mind razor… He’s just iBC’s local idiot. Most of the time we arn’t sure what he’s saying anyway.
so ur sayin to kick a man when hes down is ok?
the other thing, i called 10600, lol, u were buyin, i went to gold and cash, hum check the posts, the day before r 600 pt. down, im an idot, uf, did u see that genius
and fuck u
Next time I vacation in the keys, I’ll be sure to piss on your little row boat.
You know nothing of what you speak.
forgive me im sorry, i didnt mean to lash out,
and u r inadequate, i have 4 boats, u may not piss on any.,
why do u come here? just to say u r better? u know more?
so we gave out loans to people who could not aford them, we gave loans to people who wouldnt pay them back. u think this was good fiscal policy? man we should keep the honey cart goin as long as u make money, screw r kids they’ll just have to pay for r mistakes…
My theory as a recent grad is that the final bubble to pop and official nail in the coffin (NBA Jam style) results from college grads who can not find a job with huge loans from gov’t saying fuck it and default on all monetary obligations.
thats the sad part
was look at sallymae fucked upside down loans,, kids with 900 dollar a month payment and no jobs..
That is just my theory from seeing a lot of fuck ups around me in college who most likely ended up with a useless 4 year degree in psychology and 120K in debt. and a useless bachelors.
I say screw 50% of gen. ed. classes and get students balls deep in their major by year 2. Apply economies of scale to the human mind and understand that we are limited in our total capacity for knowledge. Logically everyone should just the best at their own little specialty instead of being shitty at a broad range of studies.
Paul Krugman deep down would agree with you. After all, his Nobel Prize work on international trade is rooted on that same concept.
Paul Krugman plays with Star Trek dolls.
I agree, but who would make money on that idea? Higher education doesn’t give a shit about learning or total capacity of knowledge. Just cut the fucking check.
why is this happin this way, we should look at what pays to invest in? we have many jobs here that dont get filled, so as computer cloud moves in we dont have people trained in that to fill…it about 3mill jobs
But they have that liberal arts bachelors degree!!
Nothing wrong w. a good liberal arts degree.
Provided you continue to use your brain.
_____
“As long as you can remember” is, fundamentally, the problem with mesofacts. I have only found clarity of mind by zooming way out from anything that happened in my short lifetime. A few centuries is a better yardstick for what we are seeing now. 150 years of recency bias is a bitch. We’re about to see the equivalent of “peak wood”…which happened a few centuries ago. Pointless knowledge for the ADHD crowd that dominates the market (and this here blog) I know, but still true, and profitable. 150 years ago the earth was at a sustainable carrying capacity. Now, not so much. 100 years from now, we’ll probably be back to the sustainable global population (ca. 2 billion). Personally, I like the Millenium Clock for a little perspective.
u r right,,lol
What the fuck are you talking about Cloris? I had to read your stupid post twice to even a slight attain a slight grip upon the tomfoolery you have written. We are so below ‘carrying capacity’ it is not even funny.
Full disclosure: I just work 14 hours with no break and 1 meal. Just consumed 3 alcoholic beverages and I am walking on air.
i think she talkin histoy hb,
‘Sok, half blood-alcohol level pope, just let it sink in for awhile, and contemplate a clock that only ticks once every 100 years. Contemplate a global overshoot to the tune of 7:1. Imagine that you’re living in a tiny segment of time that just happened to occur at the peak of the Age of Surplus. Then imagine that you’re about to see the rest of the story.
You are so far above my head I am not going to attempt an understanding of your limericks.
lol
ROTFLMAO
hey cloris honey,did you honestly believe that anyone of this generation would know the peak wood. they are too disengaged. they think charts and ma’s will tell them what to do. there are some secrets left better untold to ignorant folks. the same reaction you get when you tell someone about something that they cant,or wont comprehend.
I can gather some of the point you are making, but I have no idea what it has to do with some stupid clock. Wtf is the clock about and stop tying stupid stuff to your point.
Look for the market to take a shit next week when QE3 is not announced…then we rally as the jobs numbers exceed expectations.
i hope u r right, we r still the driver of the mkt, as weak as we r…
Man Fly, Super post. This coming from a hard critic of yours….Chin up.
i came here to make money and to help others, i think ive said the right things. i said i saw 10600 last thurs, but i get critics w/ no reason why except i dont think so. but why would u hold, or sell. this is what i was after, i am up in a down mkt, if u r up great, good job, but theres a bunch of haters here, wtf, i come to praise ceaser not bury him u turn quick w/out reason, u fuck ur self and blame others, u deserve better of me , and i deserve better than u, so i bid u adue, fogive my spelling as i cant spell, thanks
p.s. 30% of r debt came from this administration, not 30% more from bush or clintion or reagan, 30% of all time, wtf happened ? look for ur self look at national debt, google it . this is astounding,also google 14 trillion dollars,
drunk as all fucking hell
just so everybody knows
but we have NO debt as a country, for fucks sake we literally can’t. even if we did like most of it is owed to OURSELVES, likethe soc sec trust. fuck everybody is ignorant and gay as all fuck
not you razor, just everybody
ha
Flydude:
“borrowed money from credit cards, skipped lunch 3 out of 5 days, worked Saturdays, and got lucky”
There is NO fucking luck about it. You are the Nat Taggart. I absolutely hate the blogosphere. Yet, I do venture to this glorified pig pen on a weekly basis. Fly Taggart….. keep to what you worked your arse off for: the PPT. Keep to it. The emotional roller coaster of the world chaos is already intertwined with the PPT. I am probably not explaining it very well and so be it that I get tons of red thumbs….. but you know who I am…..
Go2mars…very cute.
no wtf , i want more of something for nothing, im board with working, i just want someone to give it to me, i shouldnt have to work the wealthy guys should just give it up, because i am special, i deserve more than others cause im smart, i dont do anything i just feel i deserve it, thats r society.
The last 30 years is but a blip in time so professional experience is severely limited without reflections in deeper history; however, some old warlord once remarked “Some goddamn fool once said that flanks have got to be secure. Since then sonofabitches all over the globe have been guarding their flanks. I don’t agree with that. My flanks are something for the enemy to worry about, not me. Before he finds out where my flanks are, I’ll be cutting the bastard’s throat.” General George Smith Patton, Jr.
Are Spanish stocks worth a buy here? No, I’m fucking serious.
The average PE for the Spanish market is now around 7 times. The average yield is 7%.
The government’s budget deficit will be around 5.5% and they have an undertaking they will reach a primary surplus by 2014.
Now are you sitting down… Spain over government debt is smaller than that of Germany , France or the UK.
Spain is around 65% of GDP while Germany is 85% and Frogland is about the same.
The ETF EPP is trading at around 33 and change. It reached a low of 25.50 is 2009. The recent high has been 45 bucks.
double check that please – i think EWP is the etf for Spain.
that said, i see a closing price of 33.24
that is (rounded) 30 % over the low you report from 2009
if the s&p dipped to 30 % over the 2009 low of 666, that would be about 866…
interesting…though when i check the quote, on my brokerage it shows a semi annual div of 80.25 cents
that is not 7 %
intriguing to think about , thanks !
oops “misspell”. Yes EWP
Correction- EWP
Its funny how Le Fly tries to outboast his imaginary wealth against a guy who he said was arrogant prick for doing, the hypocrisy is too much LOL
Banned, even though I don’t know what you are talking about.
like he said.too much hydro
Great story, and the last paragraph should be framed on a wall.
Sometimes it is “better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak out and remove all doubt”.
Every time is different.
And kinda the same.
I hope you are all correct at Wyoming produces more “gorilla cocaine rallies” (see LeFly).
I, however, am concerned that Clam, and co., have their financial interests tied with MoneyShaker in hiding (Michelle Obama), and her inflatable Smoke Romancer (aka President of the US) so that we will see a harsh, harsh decline in 2012.
My inferences can only lead me to think that Obama has agreed get UFC knocked the fuck out in 2012. He takes all his 2008/2012 finance winnings (yep, running for Pres. is a money maker), many more book deals, plus other well designed financial interests that will leave him and his family “FTWorld-Kennedy-Trust” style rich.
Again, I hope the market bashes up, but the auger mentioned to me the other day, near the olive tree, reading from a Hebrew scroll w/strong Roman tone, be speculative.
Great Post 🙂
My Wife told me this morning that we are part of the sandwich generation.
We are having to take care of our parents and children. Something to ponder.
Didn’t every generation have to do that?
Parents used to die young.
Razor, if I were you, I would look for some volunteer opportunities in my community. I volunteer at the Visitor Information Center in my town. It’s fun. People are nice. I meet folks from all over the world. Anyone who is spending as much time posting comments on the Internet as you are, is depriving yourself of real people and a real life.
Best Post EVER!!!
Thanks for ur perspective!!!
Everyone Should read this.
ei anybody hearing anything about that 500 million emergency loan on a bank?
rumors from asia that i heard was that its society general. one of the largest french banks
a bank run on on france would be Catastrophique (with a french accent)
The last time I saw a nasty market close on its lows on a friday and no one wanted overnight/weekend risk, the market opened fucking huge on the following Monday………..will history repeat itself? Yup!
The problem with this post and the majority of the responses is validation. Very few people can trade profitably for a long period of time. They think they can, just like they think they are good poker players or good love makers. They aren’t. And they post about how they made so much money, with no proof. It’s ridiculous and a complete waste of time.
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