With the sale of my largest position, DECK, and smaller purchase of TDC, I am now 50% cash/50% long. The market looks like shit, but I haven’t been hurt during this decline. As a matter of fact, I missed the majority of the decline, while in cash. And, I was able to cherry pick some good stocks that bucked the trend, going up in a down tape.
So, I can afford to risk a little here, waiting for a rally. Truth be told, I am tempted to go long some gold and silver stocks here. However, I am refraining from doing so, just for the sake of keeping it light.
Although I’ve been successful at managing risk during this period, I’ve been a little antsy over the headline news and would prefer, simply for the sake of quality of life, to not have too much equity exposure at this time.
Some of my new positions, FLS and TEX, are down since I bought them. My line in the sand for all new positions is -5% to -10%, with exception to GSVC because of the nature of their business and small float.
WNR is trading off, following MPC’s earnings. Again, in my opinion, there is no comparison between the two companies. WNR has run up a lot in recent weeks, so I would not be shocked to see it sell off on good news. However, I am fairly confident they will report solid results, so—for me—it’s worth holding.
Finally, VXX is going up, hitting my put position and XIV. I am giving the VXX time to soil itself, as it always does. Right now the market is for shit, so don’t expect miracles. My current thesis is “wait for the bounce,” so holding VXX puts a little longer meshes with that frame of thought.
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i expected the mkt to sell off quicker, sittin waitin wachin
We appear to have entered the vortex. Everything i own, except for gold, is going down.
mine to.started another position in gpl, again
I like MFC for the bounce play, but I have no idea when the rally will happen so I will sit aside.
I think gold and silver go down next few days if senate approves deal.
no no no no no no it wont. it’s here to stay
just for a bit, but I’m with you all the way
im flat, because of gld, evens out wprt
Financials will be a guarantee on an approved deal.
So, how is abandonment of abstemious behavior working for you? Do you miss the mental acuity associated with the Spartan life? Does any of this relate directly to trading performance?
FLY, what’s your take on MPC’s slide after solid earning? why do you think WNR will not repeat MPC 2nd? If economy goes down, gas price will drop with crude, together with end of summer driving.
Gas prices dropping don’t matter, brosef. As long as Oil falls at a faster rate than the refined products, i.e. Brent >>> WTI, then WNR will continue to mint paper, even in the backdrop of a recession.
Only if gas usage is not dropping off the cliff like last time. refinery is cyclic sector. Also I’m not sure where the basis is for speculation of widening of WTI-BRENT spread. If crude drops, then oil from oil sand may not rushing to cushing.
meh. Spreads are still WIDE AS FUCK.
Ok, my finger is on the trigger. I’m eyeing SU and MFC for the relief bounce.
Is today the right day or do we see more down tomorrow?
if you feel that way,look for later this afternoon,if you think tomorrow will be another down day then put on half of your original position,then p/u the rest tomorrow.
started mpc,
Nice post. Thanks.
Hey Fly – you still holding onto TEX? I’m taking a 10% hit and i don’t think it’s getting any better.