iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,444 Blog Posts

Winning While Losing

As you know by now, earlier this morning “The Fly” was in flux, having a crisis of sorts, doubting his own logic pertaining to his grandiose investment decisions. Fast forward a few hours and his confidence is restored. Ten thousand apologies to any of you who were startled/worried about “The Fly’s” mental state, as he is back to urinating on homeless men and crafting new gravity hammers for the heads of his staff of amateur cold callers.

The WNR shall rise again.

On a separate note, silver is getting absolutely poleaxed here. Typically, I do not like to catch knives; but this shit is silly. It’s wax on/wax off in this motherfucker and people are being obliterated via high margin levels. Where silver stops bleeding is anyone’s guess. I took a shot, buying both AG and PSLV, just in case it bounces hard off these oversold levels. I realize Carlos Slim and anyone with a series 7 is short silver now. However, aside from the margin requirements at the CME, nothing has changed. The dollar will still go down and QE3 will happen.

Additionally, I added to my VCLK and ALJ positions because my cock, for lack of a better term, has been reattached.

A great man once said “The Fly wins all the time, even when he appears to have all but wiped himself off the globe.” Indeud.

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49 comments

  1. Craptastic

    A little blood seems to be flowing to my WNR!

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  2. A Monkey with the Crackspread Anxiety
    A Monkey with the Crackspread Anxiety

    WTF? When is WNR going to 20?

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  3. go2mars

    space helmet ready, SpaceX dragon/falcon gassed up and on the launch pad, orbital mining of silver in T-10, 9, 8, 7…

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    • BlindReadAnt

      I’m a Testla fan, so don’t get me wrong, but what effects do you foresee space privatization may hold for us?

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      • go2mars

        In the next 10 years, not much unless you are filthy rich. Tourism will increase, Bigelow space stations, lunar fly-bys, and some new satellites and exploration missions. The primary side-effect of privitization will be a better cash-flow stream into stage reusability.

        Once someone has a rocket with fully reusable stages, flyback or otherwise, the cost to get to orbit could be potentially $50 per pound or less (today’s dollars). When that happens, there will be a major space race, private sector and governments will begin to lay claim to prime economic real-estate. Mars will begin to be colonized (finally), and the world will be a far better place owing to the technological developments that such efforts require. It will be the driver of the next renaissance. Coloumbus to America was nothing by comparison. This is more like oceanic life making its way onto solid ground.

        If a 747 was only used once, then discarded, like expendable rockets are today, no one would fly anywhere. The amortization of its cost over 10000 flights is what makes it reasonable. Same thing with rockets. Once they are reusable, the sky is not the limit.

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        • drummerboy

          atk would be a good fit for your rockets. they are the only ones that i know of right now that fills that criteria on reusables .they are the “interim” rocket builders for nasa when all the shuttles become mothballed shortly. and the mars project has been in the works for over 4 yrs now by atk.

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          • go2mars

            I don’t know what Mars project you are referring to. The Constellation program was cancelled. ATK solid rocket boosters were semi-reusable at enormous cost. Each shuttle launch, to recover and re-pack the old style 4 segment boosters cost over $60 million. That is definately not what I’m talking about. ATK had its hay-day, and has become a giant jobs program/pork project. Their contracts for the department of defence will sustain them, but their NASA program is the proverbial do-do. In addition, they need a giant crawlerway, vertical integration facility, and super-heavy equipment to move them around before launch. Sustaining that infrastructure is a lot more expensive than liquid fuel rockets (kerosene and liquid oxygen for example) which are essentially big empty tanks. means that only the launch pad itself needs to support the weight. ATK is uncompetitive for many reasons.

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          • BlindReadAnt

            Bad Ass, didn’t know Mars could be colonized, but have read about mock missions with people. I wonder what resources Mars offers. I recall one scientist stating our moon’s composition contains raw materials utilized in rocket fuel. Any insights on Discovery’s mission now that it’s interstellar (respect if no spec. as prob. outside scope – i.e. passed helio-sheath’s solar winds aka power)?

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          • go2mars

            Read the book “The Case for Mars” by Robert Zubrin as a starting point if you are interested in further understanding of the next (high-tech) frontier.

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          • BlindReadAnt

            I owe you a pint. Thanks.

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        • go2jupiter

          I like the way you think

          then we can have even more planets to fuck up

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  4. Rat Fink

    The Fly is back!

    REAL men don’t CRY!

    REAL men get out onto the streets and fuck something up!

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  5. go2mars

    http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/house/159397-obama-floats-plan-to-tax-cars-by-the-mile

    Real men don’t tax families by the mile for going to visit Gramma. They already do through gas tax. Silly southern neighbors.

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  6. Jakegint

    Pretty unbelievable what 5 margin hikes and some bullshit stories about Carlos Slim and — heaven help us — George Soros can do to the price of a nice useful shiny metal.

    Holy shit, I cannot believe even 17 year old first time E-traders believe anything that allegedly comes from a “Soros” source.

    ________

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    • The Fly

      It’s the werewolf conspiracy. Don’t be tricked by the Slim news.

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    • drummerboy

      like i said months ago,and i’ll say it now. george”the pos” soros’ plane needs to crash. he is a human parasite, a facist, and a commie. a manipulator, a traitor, and all around white fucking trash. and anyone that can listen to him deserves to be at a gulag for the rest of their worthless lives. because soros, considers himself the benevolent,wanna be, dictator type. why cant al-Quaeda blow up jit bags that really need to be blown up.

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    • Yabollox

      Check the tape…

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  7. jjjsix6

    WNR going up on a down day is a good sign.

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    • Dirk Diggler

      Severed chicken foot landing towards the heart of atlantis confirms.

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  8. J. Livermore

    Now that is a T-Shirt slogan you should seriously think about adding to the IBC shop

    “I’m winning, even when it appears I am losing.”

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  9. shipwrecked&alone
    shipwrecked&alone

    Poor job of managing analysts estimates by management. No excuse for that. Good job at articulating debt reduction plans and sale of Yorktown. Bought 20% more WNR this am. Since management implied 2Q will look very good, the risk has shifted to the shorts (strictly due to the huge amount short….ie first one out the door issue). Pressure will mount daily between now and next earnings release IF CRACK SPREADS HOLD ABOVE $25. TSO announced they are looking for refinery acquisitions that fit their geographic needs. I will be patient and hold WNR unless crack spreads weaken considerably. It will be interesting to see what analysts do with 2Q+3Q estimates after todays call.

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  10. Mike

    Q1 ended 3/30….so we already booking Q2 profits at record cracks…

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  11. INVE

    Just go ahead and buy a little INVE. Up 5% today. You could have made back a little from that WNR bet.

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  12. slimjim

    Carlos Slim owns silver mines. Could just be hedging his massive silver production.

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    • go2mars

      Or he wants the silver price to go down while he’s negotiating purchases of other silver mines.

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    • Jakegint

      He is, and the Soros thing is misdirection anyway.

      Complete horse.

      _______

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    • go2mars

      Also possible that like Warren Buffet, he was asked to dump his position “or else”… If you are into conspiracy theories.

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  13. Mr. Partridge

    $WNR now it’s time 🙂

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  14. Kev

    Where was gas priced during the 2007ish period when crack spreads were huge?

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  15. Wilco

    Jeez, if things keep getting any better, we may get a special appearance from Mr. Greg Solomon.

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  16. Trading Nymph

    I see that WNR held that super strong support at 15ish for now.

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    • go2mars

      http://www.businessinsider.com/michael-pettis-copper-china-2011-5

      Is this what you’ve been saying all along?

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      • Trading Nymph

        Yes Go2Mars…like forever. It is amazing how this Bubble works. I guess watchers of the USA Real Estate Bubble were saying the samething when they watched all the horrible dominos being set up then. But omg, what the heck is going to finally tip this over? Soros getting out of Gold was a good sign….

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      • TeahouseOnTheTracks
        TeahouseOnTheTracks

        Good find g2m … so copper is the new yen carry trade until forced liquidation exposes operating losses … but they’ll bury that under financing expenses and carry on.

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        • Trading Nymph

          Problem is Tea, imho, so many bot’s programs follow Copper Prices to gage Global Growth, when Copper falls out of bed…everything may follow hard.

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          • TeahouseOnTheTracks
            TeahouseOnTheTracks

            You shouldn’t throw that word “hard” around here casually … too many guys with their WNR’s on the chop block while speed dicing …. loose lips sink ships.

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  17. Rudiford

    BDCO

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  18. brk

    WNR. There it goes 🙂

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  19. No One

    Closed my WNR position for a profit.

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  20. MD

    Hey Fly,

    Why PSLV instead of SLV? Just curious.

    Thanks!

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    • TeahouseOnTheTracks
      TeahouseOnTheTracks

      They hold real metal vs paper contracts that may not be delivered in a shortage …. nuff said!

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      • MD

        are you worried about confiscation of paper metals?

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        • TeahouseOnTheTracks
          TeahouseOnTheTracks

          Not me … I don’t own SLV. It’s more a case of the paper holders becoming the bag holders and their investors getting the pipe if the guys at the other end of the paper default or go BK.

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  21. discoordinated
    discoordinated

    I got a few May 18 calls on for WNR, just to cialis it up.

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