We’re setting up for another weak trading session. This is starting to become a pattern. As an aside, new issue ARCO should be coming public. I rarely get involved with new issues. However, these fuckers sell Mcdonald’s to unsuspecting people in South America. They are the largest Mcdonald’s franchisee in Latin America. What’s not to like? I will be putting ARCO to the top of my buy list, providing the ipo doesn’t go “dot com stupid” on the first day of trade.
Crack spreads are up again this morning; but it may not make a difference. It seems people want to sell, regardless of the news. Well, to be fair, the news is always bad. I guess some of that toxic information is permeating the psyche of “rich as fuck” money managers. Even so, they have dog brains and will be buying the dips shortly. You can pretty much count on that.
Aside from my refinery holdings, there is nothing that I am emotional about right now, which means I may start selling some stuff in order to raise cash. If my stocks cannot go higher, I have no interest in seeing them go lower. Having said that, I do realize the importance of allowing my stocks to breathe a bit. If the losses are less than 10%, there is little reason for me to flip out and start shredding portfolios.
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Will it be POMO Glamour or HOMO Hammer today?
Fly
You are starting to “rationalise” your trades – turnign a “trade” into a “long-term hold”!
SNOT smart, brudda!
You know how this ends, don’t you?
You selling into the TEETH of the START of a giant RALLY!
You are wrong, market is right! Just sell the shit and move on!
Who said that? If you knew how to read, I believe it says above that, aside from refineries, should my stocks fail to go higher they are subject to sale—you fucking imbecile.
errrrrrrrr
Methinks Fly doth protest too much
Time will tell, William, time will tell
You might be right, but you come off as a huge tool
I love to squeeze rats… prepeare to hold your ankles Mr. Fink.
Cautiousness is warranted until you hear the Bernank helicopter in the skys…look at sugar, not good.
Indeud. As usual much of the argumentation circulating for QE3 happening, or not happening, is loaded with huge assumptions. (with egregiously stretched and shaky inferences firmly attached…on both sides.)
bottom line IMHO: Coin toss.
Big banks and private equity will probably be taking hostages in the form of stock certificates and lobbyists until the fog lifts and more reasonable bets can be made. In either direction.
Caveat Emptor and good luck and a prosperous future to all.
pm’s getting shinier more and more each day.
Fuck yeah! SLV and GLD.. Remember all those dollars we gave out? The US economy is dead.
Fly when would you consider triming WNR if tape drifts lower?
not until 20
Arcos Dorados Prices IPO at $17, Above the $13-$15 expected price range; Increases deal size by ~11 million shares
Last night, ARCO priced its IPO at $17, above the $13-$15 expected price range. The co also increased the deal size to 73.5 mln shares, up from 62.46 mln, to raise total gross proceeds of $1.25 bln. The lead underwriters on the deal were BofA Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Citi… ARCO is the world’s largest McDonald’s franchisee, in terms of system-wide sales and the number of restaurants it operates. In fact, it is the largest quick-serve restaurant chain in Latin America and the Caribbean, with mkt share of 12.4%, and also accounts for 6.7% of all of McDonald’s sales. Brazil represents its largest division, with 616 restaurants as of the end of 2010, accounting for 53% of its total rev. ARCO operates its restaurants under two different formats: 1) directly owned by ARCO (74% of its total), and 2). those operated by franchisees (26%)… In FY10, its revenue climbed by 11% to $3 bln, boltered by a +14.9% increase in same store sales. However, operating inc fell by a percent, as rising food/paper, occupancy, and labor costs weighed on its results. ARCO is a strong generator of cash, though, as its cash flow from operations surged 78% y/y and its Adj. EBTIDA grew by 12%… Although its rev and net income performance doesn’t look that great, the company’s cash flow generation abilities are impressive. ARCO also represents a unique opportunity to invest in one of the world’s most iconic brand names that is expanding in an emerging market like Brazil.
Not going for the ZIP?
no
ARCO IPO is part of our gov’t strategy to get everyone in Latam fat and stupid like Americans on cheap unhealthy food.
Just to keep the populace lazy and from rioting in the Streets – don’t want any protesters against the government. It works well here.
What’s to protest in our socialist utopia?
This is all Euro-weeny weakness…they were up 1% yesterday, and we were not…now they are panicked.
Don’t forget option expo
Then the towel-heads will jam up oil and we’ll rally…because $125 oil means everything is great. Where are those Nigerian rebels when you need them?
their hangin with somali pirates,exchanging notes and all.
Are we not far enough into the self propelled economic expansion that jobless claims should be good by now? Another “surprise” number to the downside.
Crack spreads whateva, WNR is sucking dick at the open.
its the open…give it some time
People are in a panic…so what do you do?
Go buy some YOKU
And some MGM…
I never should have had that 3rd cup of coffee…
yoku turned out to be runner
Time to toss the electric cord into the WNR pool now – everyone in I reckon – so long suckers
Fly, you think ARCO has legs past today before a pull back?
Sucky suck ass market. Go up or down,
NKO.tsx on my radar to buy, just a little lower..
i believe the worm is turning,,,,,,
Wnr is down on relatively low volume and has held yesterdays low while the market made a new low today so far.Longer term it has held every weekly uptrend except for the shortest one .
16.75 and 16.40 two strong supports short term I’m watching with yesterdays lows shorter term
If it gets down there this board will be shitting nickles.
Mr. Fly, should I hold VCLK thru earnings?
With my WNR limping along it’s a sanity saver to have EXK, FORM and ZIOP all erect and supportive. At this moment.
WNR has a live presentation later today….. go to WNR website…
ARCO seems a bit rich….I will take my Fatten up the world trade the original way MCD on value and div. I will buy ARCO on pull back if one ever comes
The shit seems to be hitting the fan.
Same store sales up 14.9%; operating income down 1% due to rising food, packaging, labor and occupancy costs….. Is there some Chinese accounting going on here?
OK now me and a selective few of fellow no fear totally crazy souls are short this market, Even Chanos is picking up long positions, Jim you break my Bear Heart, lol. http://www.thestreet.com/story/11080016/1/legendary-short-seller-chanos-goes-long.html ….Also on First Solar, talking to people that really use the stuff, they tell me that the product is crap and they should in the future be looking at possible lawsuits..fwiw.
Not sure I would call $83 million of longs of $5 billion under management as turning bullish.
It appears that while bulls and bears bat the shuttlecock across the inter-net, my WNR is rising.
WNR is the perfect picture of how silly this market is. Fly is all about the Crack, but I am looking at tons of Oil in Storage and decreasing demand for Gas at this level. The API (American Petro Industry) and DOE/EIA (Dept of Energy) saw a drop in the Gas Inventory yesterday but that was not on growing demand but just the normal seasonal slowdown of Refiners for repairs and cleaning before Summer Driving Season, plus, they have less demand for Gas so why refine it? So we have Increases in Prices with a Decrease in Demand…all silly.
Oil in storage is not a bad thing for refiners. It’s when gasoline/deisel storage starts to fill up whether by demand destruction or too much refining. That’s when crack spread becomes tight like a virgin. Tighter crack requires a smaller WNR cap. So the question is… how long until the crack spread causes an oversupply of refined products.
Well we got above our 5 year average in storage now, here is EIA’s Summer outlook on our Driving Season, btw here in California we are over 4 at many stations.. http://www.eia.doe.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=930
The market can remain silly longer than you can remain solvent. The markets are made up of silly asshats in colorful leotards and burlap tunics. But there is one with a market pimp hand that cannot be questioned.
Less flippant answer: the market is one big exercise in game theory. I need to devote a whole article to this, but the summary is that most participants either gamble or play one level deep. The really smart ones play through to the ultimate Nash equilibrium, (like the fundamental types) but that is only the right answer if everyone else does too. The reall winners play one step in front of the idiot-boxed herd. Señor Tropicana is an expert at this on a weekly level, and RC and Chess are masters at the intraday level. You can neither think too much or too little and expect to win.
Actually, even though Fly makes it look easy, I know that he is thinking all the time. Learning what makes the herd move is very difficult.
1: we have been at 4 dollar gas before,so no demand destruction there.gas prices,range from 4.11-4.99 a gallon now,gas would literally have to go to5.50 a gallon for regular,to even think about demand destruction.2: the crack spread should stay large,considering the oil thats being refined now was bought at prices from 9-10 months ago. one would seem to think that this is a perfect lining up of the stars, sort of.
Drummer…Dollar is the story. Speculators will dump if US Dollar can rally.
Let’s see, I can place a bet one way or the other. Either I can go with Fly and his time machine or go with your analysis which has led you to be short since April 2009.
Let me think about this for a nanosecond.
*** Non-market related question ***
Is there anybody here who is working in HR department? Yes?!
Well, let me tell you this. YOU ARE THE DUMBEST EVER PEOPLE IN THE WORLD AND MUST NEVER BE ALLOWED TO WORK IN A COMMERCIAL ORGANIZATION!!! YOU HAVE FROG’S BRAINS AND DON’T DESERVE THE MONEY TAKEN FROM US. Fuck, how I hate these stupid assholes!
*** End of non-market related question ***
Back to watching WNR.
HR people are there to be managed. Not to butt heads with. Kinda like city planning, you hate them, but you gotta be nice to get the most out of them possible.
Sounds like someone got a pink slip today. Cheer up, things will get better soon enough.
If it gets above yesterday high now , imho another round of short covering should occur intraday